Three commodities that have been in the “dog house” for years are wheat (WEAT), corn (CORN) and soybeans (SOYB). The collapse in grains, of course, has been because of record global grain crops and mostly ideal weather in several countries. These include the Midwest grain belt, Brazil, and Argentina.
Global wheat weather mostly has been ideal. Drought eased rains in Australia three months ago. There also was a big improvement in the important wheat crops in Europe and Ukraine, two of the world’s top exporters.
For corn, Midwest soil moisture is presently ideal. There are no signs of any hot weather that would stress crops for a while.
Soybean prices may get a short term boost in potential exports to China. However, I cannot say by any means that we are going into a major bull market. The trade war with China certainly has been an added heartache for farmers and global grain traders.
The all-grain commodity ETF (DBA) has been in a long tailspin. This started when the 2012 midwest drought resulted in the last true bear market in grains.
Following the herd in trading often does not work
Very often in markets, following the “herd” is not advisable. I am a contrarian by nature. This does not mean, however, that I would blindly give a buy recommendation in corn, wheat, or soybeans just because everyone seems to be short these markets right now (especially corn).
Take the stock market rally in the last couple of weeks. Everyone and their dog (or should I say sheep) was buying. This rally came from ideas that the US economy is re-opening and an apparent bullish job report number last week. However, I have been of the opinion that this was, indeed, “herd mentality.” The world is still in a state of hurt and there is no guarantee that COVID-19 will end anytime soon.
Following the herd in trading is often not advisable. Unfortuneatly, in the case of grains the last few years, it has been.
What will it take to see a Midwest summer grain rally?
La Nina is presently forming in the Pacific ending the El Nino event. El Nino inspired back-to-back droughts in Australia and incessant snows to the western United States two winters ago (replenishing water supplies). It also brought generally ideal global grain crops. This cooling (La Nina) in the equatorial Pacific can sometimes bring hot weather for Midwest grain crops and for some natural gas regions. However, this weather scenario is much more common when we simultaneously have a negative (cool) Pacific Decadal Index (PDO).
When I say PDO, I’m not talking about prescription drug overdoses or about past due financial obligations. In climatology, PDO refers to Pacific Decadal Oscillation. What does that have to do with commodity markets? Specifically: the Midwest corn belt weather can be adversely impacted by PDO.
We are entering the most important time of the year for the North American domestic corn crop. If you are a farmer, you are trying to figure out how low corn prices may go. Should you hedge at these cheap levels, or is there a chance for a Midwest hot, dry spell? If you are a trader, you are looking for opportunities to ride the coattails of a potential bull market in agricultural commodities. Will there be any?
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a pattern of change in the ocean’s climate. The PDO is detected as warm, or cool, surface waters in latitudes above 20 degrees North. During a warm, or positive, phase, the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms. During a cool or negative phase, the opposite pattern occurs. It shifts phases on at least an inter-decadal time scale, usually about 20 to 30 years. However, there can be some short term variations in this index that can drive Midwest corn belt weather.
There are several weather criteria that can affect Midwestern grain markets this coming summer. The PDO is a very critical teleconnection. When it is in its negative phase (cool in eastern Pacific near California), this yields the greatest chances for Midwest summer dryness that can hurt crops. There are some signs that the PDO is turning slightly negative, as ocean temperatures east of Asia are warmer than normal. However, we generally have to see the eastern Pacific cool near California to classify the PDO as in its negative phase.
The other climatic teleconnections in the hopper are La Nina (which is slowly forming) and the NAO/AO relationship and what happens with the weakened summer Polar Vortex. The weakened vortex I predicted last December was very responsible or the winter and spring collapse in natural gas prices (UNG).
The Key Point of this article is that buying the commodity ETF (DBA), just because it looks oversold and could be a “bargain hunting” play is not advisable at this point. While being a contrarian can often work in certain markets, unfortunately, following the herd has made the most sense in grains for years. If and when the PDO turns more negative and ocean temperatures cool in the eastern Pacific near California, then the potential may occur for late summer heat and dryness that could lift both natural gas and grains out of the doldrums. Stay tuned at bestweatherinc.com if the PDO goes more negative.
Rice transplanting for 2020’s main crop begins in May for key Asian exporting countries like Thailand, India, and Viet Nam. In most areas, transplanting is more often manual than machine-driven. However, Covid-19 and the labor shortage caused by migrant laborers’ return to their homes during lockdowns may impact this year’s effort.
The Rice Market Soared in April on Covid-19 Fears
Asia produces about 90% of the rice grown in the world, and holds the majority of the grain’s consumers. In April, rice prices reached seven year highs. As with wheat, there were fears of virus-driven shortages. Rice’s high prices were brought on partially by stockpiling concern and also by export bans placed in nations like Viet Nam. Drought in Thailand, which exports more rice than any country except India, meant prices already had started to climb slowly before Covid-19.
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India, the Biggest Rice Exporter, Ceased Shipping
In the beginning of April, India’s Rice Exporters Association announced exporters would stop signing new contracts. Labor shortages at mills and ports combined with logistics disruptions made even current contracts very difficult to met.
China Stockpiled Rice, Viet Nam Stopped Exports
While the Chinese government extoled citizens not to hoard rice, it increased its central grain reserve by 350,000 tons. China is the world’s largest producer of paddy, but most is kept for domestic consumption.
Meanwhile, Viet Nam, the world’s third biggest rice exporter, imposed export controls. Cambodia also banned rice exports around the same time.
Production of rice, by country. Source: FAO.
All this Was Good News for Thailand and US
Thailand’s rice outlook was bleak at the start of 2020. While Thailand’s domestic rice prices rose by 20-% to 30%, drought had decreased off-season milled rice by 1.5-2.0 tons. The country expected to export less due to the strong Thai baht (its currency), increased competition, and the drought. When competitors instituted export bans, the Thai Rice Exporters Association confidently announced that Thai exports would improve, and they did. Despite the improved conditions, however, Thai rice exports from January through April decreased 39% compared to the year before.
Rice planting was in mid-season in the United States when COVID-19 took hold globally. Production targets increased, including for aromatic varieties like those in Asia. The USDA says production in the United States will rise in 2020/21 by 17%. The latest USDA rice report also predicts that exports from the United States will increase and help meet new demand.
Top rice exporting countries. Source: FAO.
Covid-19 Impact on Asia’s Next Planting?
Much of India’s kharif (monsoon season) paddy grows for 25 days, then migrant laborers transplant seedlings to the field. Many migrant laborers in rice growing states like Punjab returned home for the lockdown. India’s transportation system is reopening slowly. Some analysts feel mechanised rice transplanters, available as a service, are a necessary alternative to the missing laborers. Whether many of India’s farmers can afford mechanized rice transplanters, or whether machines are appropriate for the fields, is unknown.
Mechanized rice transplanting. Source: IRRI.
Thailand has not reported any issues with rice transplanting, even though much production relies on laborers from nearby countries. Cambodia, hard hit by drought, lost over 40,000 acres of paddy land in the last year, and Mekong River waters are at historic lows. Subsistence farmers are the country’s primary rice producers; they do not rely much on migrant labor. In general, migrant labor issues also do not impact Viet Nam’s rice production.
Myanmar (Burma), however, is a different story. Monsoon rice accounts for 80% of its paddy production. Migrant laborer groups transplant much of Myanmar’s rice. They move from farm to farm together, going to new zones furhter north as the season moves.
With travel curtailed, and with government loans and microfinance suspended, many Myanmar farmers cannot afford this season’s planting. Fertilizer and improved seeds may be too pricey. Migrant groups for transplanting may not be available and may be too expensive to hire. Some local experts fear there could be severe food shortages in parts of the country in six months.
Overall USDA Rice Outlook
Most United States rice producers seed aerially or drill or broadcast seeds, making labor less of a planting issue. Asia’s labor issues regarding rice transplantation didn’t seem to affect the analysis in USDA’s May 14th report. The report sees a 31.5 million cwt increase in US rice production and 2 million more tons of US rice exports.
Internationally, the USDA predicts the second-best rice crop on record, with production up 2%. China,Thailand, Myanmar, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka will show production increases, the report said.
The USDA wrote the report when rice planting season in key Asian regions barely had started. We may have to wait until the June 15th–or even August 15th–rice report to see any impact from Asia’s migrant labor and credit shortages on USDA predictions.
Oil’s price drop, changing weather patterns, armed conflicts, and COVID-19 may bring the worst humanitarian crisis since World War II by the end of 2020.
“[W]e could be facing multiple famines of biblical proportions within a short few months,” David Beasley recently told the UN Security Council. Beasley, Executive Director of World Food Programme, predicted a worst-case scenario of famine in about three dozen countries.
Before COVID-19, an estimated 821 million people were classified by the UN and other agencies as food insecure. Another 135 million were on the edge of starvation. Because of the coronavirus, a further 130 million people are predicted to join that 135 million in 2020.
The fall in oil prices undermines the economies and budgets of many governments, including Venezuela, Nigeria, and Angola. Oil constitutes half of Russia’s exports, while Sudan also is heavily oil dependent.
Petroleum makes up 98.8% of exports in South Sudan. The country, often plagued by armed conflict and currently facing famine, could face more destabilization.
Changing Weather Patterns Already Causing Hunger
In the Horn of Africa, increased rains have brought massive locusts swarms that are destroying potential harvests. Farmers in Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia and Sudan already face field damage. The worst locust outbreak in 70 years, these new pests also threaten agriculture in the Arabian Penninsula, Iran, and Pakistan
Flooding in Somalia. Photo: WFP.
At the same time, several years of increasing drought is bringing hunger to Honduras, Somalia, Zimbabwe and other countries. Combined with a decrease in foreign remittances, increased drought and/or increased flooding have made finding food a challenge for many.
Climate change also may be depressing key nutrients in crops, making malnutrition more likely. Researchers at Stanford University found that zinc and copper is decreasing in crops due to increased carbon dioxide.
Covid-19 Undermines Agriculture Output
COVID-19 is hampering agriculture on both the export and subsistence levels. International supply chains for fertilizers and other inputs have been disrupted. Farmers who are ill cannot work their fields effectively.
Simultaneously, COVID-19 is handicapping the locust fight in countries like Ethiopia, Uganda and Sudan. With lockdowns, farmers and workers are afraid to go to their fields. Pesticides, caught in supply chain tangles, are harder to find.
Concerns over Markets, Prices, and Impacts
The responses by markets and countries to the various crises may also have an impact on famine in the coming months. Impositions of export bans and tarrifs impact the global food supply chain.
“The worst that can happen is that governments restrict the flow of food,” Maximo Torero, the chief economist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), said to the Guardian newspaper
Viet Nam briefly limited rice exports. Photo: WFP.
At the same time, the FAO director of emergency operations, Dominique Burgeon, warned of potential price spikes in food. These lead to unrest in the Middle East and North Africa in 2007 and 2008.
“This is a matter of international solidarity, and humanity, but also a matter of global security…” Burgeon old the paper.
We produced this item on Dec. 7, 2018 – Jim Roemer
Our blogs are almost entirely weather related, discussing commodities and how weather can affect everything from natural gas to coffee, cocoa and the grain market. However, we occasionally cover the realm of economics beyond the commodity sphere. For nearly a month, we’ve held the personal sentiment that the hype in the stock market should soon be coming to an end. Signs of inflation in the broad economy have been elusive, but the lofty price of stocks and other assets proves that inflation is actually higher than is reported in the financial press.
It’s “in the mail”
A first class postage stamp is now 50 cents. In 2008 it was 42 cents. I’ll do the math for you: 19%
Inflation has persisted in many goods and services that are not represented in the Consumer Price Index. The Fed’s use of a truncated, subjectively crafted, CPI has serious repercussions on their activities with respect to money supply and interest rates. Common sense and observation tells us that cars, food, hair cuts and newspapers have had double digit percentage price rises in the last few years.
Policy makers have papered over (shall we say whitewashed) some significant facts in the global economy. The Trade War with China is only one element of my theory. In addition, law makers have hidden many other problems and set the stage for an economy that is unable to bear higher interest rates in an “easy money” decade.
Reality Sets In
Our huge debt is starting to wake up our financial markets to this reality. Debt is getting more and more expensive to service. Hence, why in the world would the Fed listen to Donald Trump urging them “not to raise” interest rates? As a proverbial “loose cannon” is on many fronts, he seems to have little conscience about doing the “the right thing” other than lining his own pockets at the expense of all Americans.
What’s That Ticking Sound?
Markets are starting to break down, as we have built gigantic bubbles on this unprecedented amount of cheap money and quantitative easing. Check out this link to the nation’s debt clock.
Another sign of potential trouble heading for the global economy is often the crude oil market. Lower crude oil prices are often a forerunner of more serious global economic trends ahead. While it may be a bit late to take advantage of the sell-off in crude oil to the short side, overproduction continues in many countries, including the United States. Lower oil prices (which imply lower gasoline and heating oil prices) are, of course, great for the American consumer—one shining point of light in what could still be a rough and volatile road ahead for the U.S. stock market
Our CLIMATELLIGENCE newsletter aims to assist both the novice and the experienced trader how to “weather” the storm of the financial markets. We do this by using weather to offer trading ideas in everything from natural gas futures and ETF’s to grains and soft commodities.
The image above is from the web site globalmeatnews.com. This blog discusses the Trade War and weather related markets such as soybeans, cotton, coffee and cocoa
In a wild agricultural commodity market brought on by the Trade War, some analysts feel any resolution in trade disputes between China and the U.S. will result in several quick limit up moves in markets from cotton to soybeans and corn. An upside knee jerk reaction could be likely. However, my opinion is that the extent of any major bull move would be rather limited, barring any renewed global weather and production concerns.
I am beginning to see some dry weather problems for cocoa in parts of west Africa. Traders will pay very close attention to weather forecasts and to El Niño in the months ahead. There has also been some flooding in the Ivory Coast the last few days; so weather conditions are mixed with some potential reduction in crops from variable conditions. To see about the floods in parts of Ivory Coast, please click here
Why has coffee lagged in the face of a big short position in the oversold market? There is no freeze scare on the horizon for Brazil and generally ideal harvest weather is likely in the weeks ahead. Hence, any major rally could only stem from a dramatic drought in Brazil next fall, or from weather disruption problems in some other coffee producing country.
Soybean prices (above) hit major monthly support on the charts and had a steep rally back on an over-reaction to the Trade War talks on Tuesday. Or, was it really an over-reaction? Time will tell. Nevertheless, ideal Midwest soybean crop conditions has kept us in the bearish camp for weeks.
After our bearish attitude in corn on too big a long position and great early season crop prospects, now I am getting concerned about it being too wet in parts of Iowa and the western corn belt. Will it turn hot in July? What does a weakening La Nina and teleconnections suggest? Stay tuned to subscribe to our exclusive, unique, new commodity weather report
WEEKLY RAINFALL MAP (WSI.COM)
(map above) Rainfall the last week is beginning to get too wet in parts of the NW corn belt
Weather will be key and featured a lot in our upcoming weekly paid subscription service: CLIMATELLIGENCE REPORT.
BLOOMBERG SUMMARY OF THE TRADE WAR AND ITS AFFECT ON COMMODITIES
Bloomberg) — A rout in commodities deepened as the threat of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies intensified, hitting markets from steel to soybeans.
Almost all raw materials fell after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese goods, sending commodity producers tumbling. A Bloomberg gauge of commodities slid to the lowest since early April, with agriculture the worst hit.
A Bloomberg agriculture index fell to the lowest since at least 1991, while a gauge of global mining stocks headed for the biggest decline in almost two years. Industrial metals fell, with aluminum, nickel and zinc all giving up more than 2 percent. Freeport-McMoRan Inc., the world’s largest publicly traded copper producer, and Alcoa Corp., the biggest U.S. aluminum maker, lost more than 3 percent. First Quantum Minerals Ltd. dropped more than 4 percent.
The spat is upending commodities markets that as recently as last month had climbed to an almost three-year high on signs of a strengthening global economy. China, the biggest raw-materials consumer and a key destination for some U.S. farm goods, vowed to retaliate “forcefully” against Trump’s threatened tariffs.
“The escalating trade dispute between the U.S. and China is putting noticeable pressure on grain and oilseed prices,” Commerzbank AG said in a note. “Sentiment among market participants is becoming noticeably gloomier, stock markets are falling, cyclical commodities such as base metals are under pressure.”
Agriculture
Soybean futures were among the biggest losers, falling as much as 7.2 percent to the lowest in more than two years. The oilseed is the largest single American agricultural export to China, a trade valued at about $12 billion last year. Chinese demand for soy has surged in recent decades as the country uses more of it as food for hogs.
Agriculture has been a major battleground in the deepening trade dispute. By focusing on agriculture and energy, China is targeting rural communities in states that voted for Trump in 2016. As recently as May, the Asian nation said it would seek to buy more U.S. agricultural and energy products as part of a tentative trade truce between the two countries.
“Hopes of higher U.S. soybean shipments to China have been quashed by the retaliatory tariffs,” Commerzbank said. “The U.S. will doubtless have a hard time finding alternative consumers without offering significant discounts.”
Corn slipped to the lowest since January, while wheat and cotton also dropped.
Steel and Miners
Iron and steel for construction uses are included in the U.S. list of products facing additional tariffs, leading to big losses in the materials. Steel reinforcement bar futures in Shanghai fell as much as 4.3 percent, the most since March, while iron ore in Dalian slumped 6.4 percent. Iron ore’s decline has taken prices to a two-month low, while steel continued its retreat from a three-month high.
Producers were also hit, with Germany’s Thyssenkrupp AG, U.S. Steel Corp. and ArcelorMittal, the world’s biggest steelmaker, all slumping.
The Bloomberg World Mining Index fell 2.9 percent, on course for the biggest loss since June 24, 2016. The worst performers were Chinese-listed companies. International mining companies fared a little bitter, with Glencore Plc and BHP Billiton Ltd. also falling. The FTSE 350 Mining Index declined to the lowest since May 9.
Oil
Crude fell in New York as traders assessed the mounting trade tensions as well as OPEC’s discussions on a compromise over an output increase. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is aiming for a modest production boost in a bid to bridge the gap between Russia’s push for a big gain and Iran’s insistence that no change is needed.
Best Weather is pleased to welcome our guest blogger, Scott Mathews, who tells us about weather’s role in economic events.
Credits for narrative and graphic content appear at the end of this blog, below.
1857 – How a hurricane contributed to an economic panic
1982 – How a blizzard caused a “flash crash” in short term interest rates
2018 – What could happen next?
Sunken Treasure
The recent announcement about an upcoming auction of gold salvaged from a 19th century shipwreck bears an interesting tale of how an economic crisis was spawned by a hurricane.
Wreckage from the SS Central America, the so-called “Ship of Gold”, was discovered in 1988 at a depth of 7,000 feet off the Carolina coast. As the recovery operation progressed, half of the payload was sold in order to pay back creditors involved with the project. That accounted for about $50Million worth, but the rest of the treasure has been tangled up in years of bickering among law firms and insurance companies. What’s left will be displayed in California at the Long Beach Convention Center (Feb. 22-24), and will be sold in early 2018 for an estimated additional $50Million,depending on market prices.
On the auction block will be 45 gold bullion bars, 3100 gold coins, 1000 silver coins and over 80 pounds of gold dust, as well as an assortment of nuggets.
What does this have to do with the weather causing a crisis?
Tales of both success and ruin from the great 1849 California gold rush are the topics of songs, novels and movies. There were fortunes made, for sure, but there were also hard luck outcomes for many who gave up all, in hopes of getting rich. Some have said that the real winners were the operators of saloons, bordellos and flophouses, as well as the sellers of hardware, dry goods and mules. The gold mined there in the early 1850s injected a powerful stimulus into the US economy.
The Panic of 1857
California gold was consistently shipped back east. The cargo hold of the SS Central America contained a sizeable stash, roughly 10 tons. At that time, the prosperity enjoyed in the US was partially hinged on that stream of wealth flowing from the gold rush.
The flow began to slow down in the mid 1850s, and on September 12, 1857, when that New York bound steamship sank in a violent hurricane, the first economic domino fell. The loss of that long awaited gold shipment was such big news, that the telegraph operators sent “instant messages” that halted thousands of deposits, payments, acquisitions and other dealings across the country.
The banks had invested in businesses that were failing, and this was causing the American people to panic. Investors were losing heavily in the stock market and railroads were unable to pay their debts…
…Land speculators who had counted on the construction of new railroad routes were losing money. People feared financial ruin, and ran to the banks to withdraw their money. However the banks did not deal in paper money, the banks dealt in silver and gold.
Then the panic became global from the perception that the supply of precious metal money was drying up. There was no real recovery until after the Civil War, a decade later.
Fast Forward to Supply Side Economics in 1982:
How Bond Traders “Got Snowed”
The supply of money has been, and still is a main driver in recessions and in growth periods.
A huge plunge in short term interest rates baffled bond traders one afternoon in April 1982. This was during the Reagan administration when “supply side economics” was the buzz phrase du jour, and guessing the money supply number was one of Wall Street’s favorite extra-curricular guessing games.
The aggregate known as M1 measures all “circulating” cash, mostly held in checking accounts. For a while, the money supply was considered to be the pulse of the economy. The expansion and contraction of M1 told traders how the Fed would, or might, react in response to short term credit needs.
That puzzling M1 deficiency which spooked the bond traders that afternoon wasn’t explained until the following day:
It appeared that a rare spring snowstorm was the culprit.
The Associated Press reported that the April blizzard “swept from Ohio through New England, and brought travel to a virtual standstill in cities such as Boston and New York.” A snowstorm of such ferocity was unprecedented at that time of year.
The 4/6/82 storm had been so unexpectedly severe in the Northeast, that the U.S. Postal Service experienced massive delays in mail delivery, and transportation disruptions impacted commerce.
So, how did this affect interest rates? Billions of dollars in Social Security checks didn’t move through the postal system as normally anticipated.
Millions of recipients got their checks late.
Hundreds of thousands weren’t able to get to the bank.
This might seem odd today because direct deposit and electronic banking now insulate the movement of money from the elements. When that M1 number was released it was several billion dollars short of expectations, signaling an immense lack of available cash; this in turn, implied the Fed would have to add reserves, and ease credit by lowering interest rates.
The following week, after all those checks had been received and deposited, the numbers went back in line with predictions again.
Economic analysts must have been aware of the blizzard as the major headline story the previous week, but none of them had “connected the dots” when making their M1 forecasts. The moral of this tale is that weather not only impacts the economy, but it can be “last week’s weather” that takes investors and traders by surprise.
Did I mention that money supply figures were, and still are, released every Thursday afternoon for the calculations based on the previous week?
In some bond departments during the Reaganomics era, the trader with the farthest-off “guestimate” had to buy refreshments, and transportation home, for everybody in the weekly M1 pool:
What glitch could weather have in store for markets in 2018?
This is not going to be a prediction… just some “food for thought” about how the 21st century version of our theme might play out. In the case of our historical anecdotes, technology was the key.
In 1857, using of a side-wheel steamer to transport precious metal assets was probably an accident waiting to happen. What was the alternative? Certainly not railroad or stagecoach, because they would be too conspicuous and too tempting for bandits. So, shipping had to be… by ship.
As for the 1982 Social Security checks being delayed in the US mail, it was also a transportation issue, since the checks traveled their greatest distances by truck.
In 2018, the transportation of data is our Achilles heel. How could weather impact that process?
It’s all about power outages. Widespread outages of long duration would put electronic commerce and banking at great risk. After back-up batteries have died, and after fuel for back up generators has been depleted, then the money flows would slow, and even stop in many venues. We know that power outages can be triggered by weather. Extreme heat waves can stress the system from excessive cooling demand…
…wind and ice storms can bring down power lines,
…and lightning strikes can compromise generation stations.
You might think we’ve always been aware of such possibilities. Your assumption is that the engineers have “hardened” the facilities with preventive and reactive measures. All of that is true. However, in this era we have a new actor who could take a cue from a severe weather event. He might seize an opportunity to bring down the grid as well as the economy.
Enter the Cyber Criminal
On the written page, on stage and on screen, the burglar strikes at night. He takes advantage of darkness and diurnal habits of his victims in order to increase his chances. He gets “coverage” from them.
In the 21st century, the cyber terrorist looking to cause havoc might strike at any time. Yet, if the grid is already suffering from a weather-based outage, his mission might prove even more insidious. The weather event will give him “coverage” as well.
If that doesn’t scare you out of your wits, read this book:
Just so you know, in an interview on his tour for this book, Ted Koppel said, “We are frightened enough that my wife and I decided to buy enough dried food for ourselves, our kids and their kids.”
Are you interested in stocking up for survival? Don’t forget that you might want to keep some hard assets for bartering purposes. It doesn’t hurt to have some gold and silver coins, but you need to get them before the internet crashes. Oh, and remember, “no internet” means “no crypto currency”.
If you want to stock up on precious metals, in either coins or bars, be careful. The field is crawling with counterfeiters. The criminals are getting better at fooling the experts. The most clever ones seem to be in China.
“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children”. – Native American Proverb
“You may delay, but time will not.” – Benjamin Franklin
There’s a bit of “Prospector” in all of us:
Music credits: Days of ’49 performed by Toein’ in the Dark. – YouTube video published October 21, 2012
Images:
Painting “Death of the SS Central America” by Gary Hanna
Photo display of gold bars and coins: Monaco Rare Coins, Newport Beach, CA 92660
“The War of Wealth” – 1896 Broadway play by C.T. Dazey – poster copyright by The Strobridge Lithograph Co., Cincinnati & New York, 1895
Photo of Ronald Reagan: “How Reagan Sowed the Seeds of America’s Demise” – by R. G. Price – RationalRevolution.net
Information sources:
Ship of Gold in the Deep Blue Sea, by Gary Kinder, Grove Press, New York, 1998.
“Hurricanes and Equities: Cross-Market Opportunities” (2009) by J.S. Mathews – published on CME Group website
Koppel, Ted – “Lights Out: A Cyberattack, a Nation Unprepared, Surviving the Aftermath” – Crown Publishers (2015)
HELPING YOU MAKE THE BEST INVESTMENT DECISIONS BASED ON THE WEATHER
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