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The Whys Have It: Understanding some recent commodity market moves from coffee to grains
4 am EDT, July 1st "The Whys have it" is a play on words based on the expression "The ayes have it," which is what a chairperson says after a vote when the "yes" votes win. Depending on the context, it can mean: The important thing...
What About El Niño and US Corn Prices?
European Corn Surges as US Market Eyes El Niño Jim Roemer’s Corn Overview: In late May, I turned bearish on US corn while many traders remained focused on strong export demand and the potential geopolitical risk premium from the Middle East...
Climatic Factors That Will Affect Summer Corn Belt Weather
This report contains two videos. For recent trading ideas, please click on this image to get the details: Video 1--A look at the developing El Niño, the record European heat and why sustained extreme corn belt heat is likely not in the cards...
Commodity Trade Ideas
Sunday June 28th The Weather Spider is: Slightly bearish corn and soybeans, only because of a very complicated summer forecast for the US corn belt and since I do not like guessing at USDA reports. But I do not see major sustained heat for most US...
Why we ended our bearish view towards coffee in mid-June
Image Source: Best Weather Newsletter The illustration above reflects Mr. Roemer’s view in October of 2025 that Brazil’s coffee production would rebound and that we would enter a longer-term bear market. Following back-to-back droughts and frost...
First weather scare of the season for the corn market
As usual, I am backlogged out of my frigging ears with reports for multiple countries and commodities. I have been slammed with questions about summer corn belt weather and El Niño for weeks. Sorry, I just haven't had time to get to my video, and I...
Bullish weather continues for cocoa and coffee, preview of summer grain belt study & why metal prices collapsed
4 a.m. EDT, Thursday In this report: More crop issues on the way for Brazil coffee Why did I recommend selling the December $5500 cocoa call option against nice profits long futures? Coming up early next week regarding summer grain weather forecast...
Why the rally in natural gas prices was overdone & Hedging good profits long cocoa on wet West African weather
I will not get to my summer corn belt outlook until Sunday night. I have been working on a million different studies and have not gotten around to my video yet. Stay tuned Early Monday, I mentioned the modest rally in natural gas, and that my...
Commodity & Global Weather Summary
On Thursday a.m.or evening EDT, I will have a video about the factors that will influence Midwest corn/soybean belt weather Click here for recent trading ideas Grains Summary Over the last few weeks, we have seen a massive exit of spec long...
Expanding Western Europe drought impacting wheat & looking for an El Niño-based ETF for soft commodities
4 a.m., EDT, Wednesday Quick Notes A)Hi folks, once again I have been sending out "many more reports than usual." It is my pleasure. No problem at all. Instead of my answering client questions by email, I try to summarize them with these reports....
What is Derecho & Why Severe Weather and Flooding Will Hit Some Midwestern Grain Areas
A derecho starts life as a thunderstorm, or cluster of thunderstorms. If conditions are right and there is plenty of warm, humid air at the surface, combined with a strong, straight jet stream, the storm can build into a towering system. Warm...
Too Much of a Good Thing for Midwestern Grains? Another Home Run Trade in Coffee. Is Cocoa Next? Plus, Why Natural Gas Prices are Rallying.
Too much rain for part of the Midwest and southern grain belt I have had a million questions about summer weather and El Niño. Still, I have not yet gotten around to posting a video. If anything, there is concern (not of drought), but of "too much...
COFFEE in the Crosshairs (Again)
June 12th, 2026 After rallying to near historic high prices a year ago, you may have had some relief at your favorite coffee shop recently: That precious cup of your favorite cappuccino or espresso has dropped a bit in price (Well, at least...
How El Niño is Beginning to Affect Commodities: Climatic Signals to Look for in the Next Few Months
In this 7 min 45 second video about El Niño, I discuss: The near record warm ocean temperatures near Peru (6-10 degrees above normal--NINO12 region). While not officially a strong El Niño until probably later this summer or fall, readings for the...
El Niño Forms: Historical mid-late June rains in Brazil; coffee too wet; US wheat; disease issues may start for cocoa
QUICK NOTES AND WHAT IS COMING UP 1)As usual, watching no fewer than 8 different commodity markets, trying to come up with summer forecasts for at least 5 countries 2)I have sent out "many" more reports than normal 3)Monday a.m I will discuss why I...
El Niño, Cocoa Prices & Potential Wet Weather Impacts on Other Commodities
I have not gotten to my Super El Niño and summer grain market video yet, but will get to it soon. I may have a report on coffee Sunday night and then a couple videos with regard to El Niño and Midwest corn belt weather by mid-late June. "Because of...
Why a developing El Niño may pose some additional risks to the U.S. wheat crop
In this report: Quick Notes Why wheat prices soared in April and May My warning, two weeks ago, about a more bearish Weather Spider and why wheat prices could fall Harvest delays and disease issues may begin for US wheat crops due to El Niño...
Unusual heavy rains coming to northern Brazil – Potential impacts to soft commodities – What to do?
In this report: Highest confidence trades & June 3rd Weather Spider The importance of June weather for Brazil's harvest of sugar cane and coffee Developing El Niño poses some harvesting and quality risks to sugar cane and coffee Negative Indian...
