This video addresses why feet of snow will affect the Northeast and New England for the next two weeks and why a cold mid-winter could last into March for the northern half to two-thirds of the Midwest and eastern U.S.
Click below to learn about A) The Polar Vortex; B) The positive SOI and weak La Niña signal; C) Why skiing in the Northeast and New England will have the best mid-late February conditions in a decade
Several times a year, we offer farmers and commodity traders on six continents a free issue of WeatherWealth: The only global commodity weather newsletter that focuses strictly on the weather with specific trading ideas in commodity options, futures, and ETFs.
Some of our best calls over the last two years were predicting mostly big global crops for grains and the resulting bear markets. The stronger dollar and worries over demand from China have also impacted prices adversely. La Niña did not form last summer, as I predicted it wouldn’t. This helped set the stage for a record corn and soybean crop. But, what about now?
Will a La Nada or La Niña be present when we move into 2025?Could a bull market in grains eventually form?
The biggest bull weather markets over the last 2 years have been in cocoa and coffee brought on by Climate Change, deforestation, and a previous El Niño.
In the last three winters, a trader could have sold natural gas in December and potentially gain at least 20-35% on his/her money by March. Almost every winter of the last 5 years has been warmer than normal. What about now?
Our latest newsletter (download on top of the page) discusses the following:
1) The difference between an El Niño neutral (La Nada) and La Niña
2) How winter weather could be affected by both
3) What are the MJO index, and a negative PDO index?
4) How record-warm global temperatures could offset a potential cold signal for U.S. natural gas heating demand areas
5) What will it take for the Midwest grain areas and Plains wheat to have hot, dry weather next summer?
6) Why soybean prices may remain in a downward trend
7) How Climate Change has caused an explosion in cocoa prices
8) A discussion of the volatile coffee market and the impact of recent drought stress in Brazil
9) Australian crop weather
10) La Niña and a look at historical sugar prices
11) Trading ideas in commodities, and…
12) …Much more
Enjoy,
T H A N K S F O R Y O U R I N T E R E S T I N C O M M O D I T Y W E A T H E R !!!
1) What is the Western Pacific Warm Pool and why it has delayed La Niña
2) How the 2022 Tonga volcanoes may have contributed to the western Pacific warming
3) How our computer program www.climatepredict.com forecasted a warm autumn that has pressured natural gas prices
(available to subscribers to our newsletter WeatherWealth)
4) An historical look at why natural gas prices have fallen in four out of the last five consecutive autumn-to-early-winter periods.
Given the record warm oceans and Gulf of Mexico, a tropical storm or hurricane is not out of the realm of possibilities for November 7th-8th.
Sign up for a two-week free trial period to WeatherWealth and you can see our recent trading strategies for coffee, sugar, grains, and more and how to potentially trade these markets in the future.
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
On the date of publication, Jim Roemer did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
click on video below of renowned meteorologist and commodity investing analyst Jim Roemer riding out the hurricane in Sarasota.
Windows being blown out of building and trees down. However, the situation for this area could have been a lot worse if Milton did not weaken at landfall. Though NOAA and others are saying it landed as a CAT 3 hurricane, sustained winds of around 80-90 MPH with gusts to 100 or so, was really a strong Cat 2. A big difference, though certainly many communities around Tampa, etc. had severe flooding. Tornadoes were the biggest threat in Florida (a record number)
“The record summer +NAO index and its impact on the weak hurricane season and commodities”
by Jim Roemer – Meteorologist – Commodity Trading Advisor – Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict – Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter
Weekend Report – September 6-8, 2024
Background of the NAO index and its potential i& influence on the Atlantic hurricane season
The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) is one of the most important teleconnections to predict winter weather for the natural gas market. It has to do with how surface pressures fare over Greenland and the Azores to the west of Africa. When the NAO is negative in winter, this means high pressure over Greenland that can sometimes bring onslaughts of cold winter weather to Europe and/or the U.S.
However, the positive NAO index also helped us predict record midwest summer grain crops for corn and soybeans and will have implications for soft commodities in the months ahead.The record-warm Arctic combined with mostly a positive NAO index (low pressure off Greenland and high pressure over the Azores) has resulted in several warm winters in a row.
A trader could have sold natural gas at some point in time in November or December in each of the last three to four years and made 30-50% on his/her money by March.
Anyway, the NAO index also has some influence on U.S. summer grain weather and soft commodities, as well as repercussions for the Atlantic hurricane season. Models have been overzealous, forecasting potential hurricanes due to all this African dust you see in the image below.
Nevertheless, storms that “originate” in the Gulf are often not affected by African dust–just waves coming off the coast of West Africa. Near record warm ocean temps could result in rapid intensification of a tropical storm early this week in the Gulf. However, no immediate major hurricane is expected.
Shown below are four graphic images I put together:
(upper left) A negative NAO indexresults in below-average African dust and often an active Atlantic hurricane season when an “El Niño neutral” or La Niña is present.
(lower left) The NAO indexhas hit arecord high this summer at 3.15
(upper right) The correlation of a +NAO (shown on my weather forecast program ClimatePredict) depicts thattotal Atlantic Cyclone Energy and the number of strong storms are below normal. This is in contrast to NOAA as well as many other entities out there who wrongly predicted a few months ago, one of the strongest hurricane seasons on record.
(lower right) Low pressure over Greenland responsible for the +NAO
How can the NAO index give clues about commodity weather?
Take a look at the correlation for September rainfall over northern Brazil when the NAO is positive. There is a negative correlation with rainfall. This implies the severe drought continuing for key Brazilian sugar cane crops, coffee, and orange production areas. OJ prices are making all-time highs on the combination of Florida’s lowest crop in decades, and also a 25% reduction in Brazil’s 2024 crop. The 2025 crop may see more of the same.
Soybean traders will also be watching Brazil’s planting weather in another few weeks or so. A severe drought is unusual if La Niña forms in northern Brazil, but deforestation of the Amazon is offsetting some standard climatological signals.
Of course, the NAO is only one of many teleconnections. See how my program has 28 of them. These helped me “second guess” standard computer models last June in predicting that La Niña would not form this summer and the Midwest would have huge corn and soybean crops.
What is my forecast for the important October coffee bloom in Brazil?
When, if at all, will the sugar market begin to respond to the drought?
Which trading strategies am I employing in futures or options for WeatherWealth clients?
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
Trading futures and options involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
HELPING YOU MAKE THE BEST INVESTMENT DECISIONS BASED ON THE WEATHER
We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it.OkPrivacy policy
