Why silver prices could test $50 within a year

Why silver prices could test $50 within a year

(SIY00) (SIN24) (SLV) (SIL) (PAAS) (WPM) (SSRM) (AG) (MAG) 

by Jim Roemer – Meteorologist – Commodity Trading Advisor – Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict – Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter 

  •  Memorial Day Weekend Report:  May 24-27, 2024  

Silver plays a crucial role in the global green economy, particularly in renewable energy technologies and sustainable practices. With more global weather extremes and record-warm oceans, environmental technologies that utilize silver will only grow in the years ahead.

We have been slapped with unprecedented weather events: Historic snowfalls in California this winter and the rapid melting of Arctic ice. In addition, we have witnessed floods and landslides from Houston to southern Brazil.

The need for new technologies to combat climate change is being accelerated by only a few of the dozens of weather extremes.

Source: chart by KITCO and comments by Best Weather, Inc.


Just take a look at how record-breaking global ocean temperatures brought on climate change (to a greater extent than by El Niño) is opening the door for more silver-based technologies in the environmental sector.

We are seeing the silver market soar and the inevitable scenario is on the horizon for a $50 per ounce price tag.

Solar Energy: Silver is an essential component in photovoltaic (PV) cells built into solar panels. Silver paste is applied to silicon wafers that conduct the electricity generated from sunlight. In 2020, over 100 million ounces of silver were consumed in PV cells for solar energy. As the world transitions to renewable energy sources, demand for silver in solar panels is expected to grow significantly.

  • E l e c t r i c    V e h i c l e s: Silver is widely used in automotive electrical systems due to its excellent conductivity. Nearly all electrical connections in modern automobiles, including those in electric and hybrid vehicles, are outfitted with silver-coated contacts and membrane switches. The rise of electric vehicles will drive increased silver demand.
  • W a t e r    P u r i f i c a t i o n: Silver is used in water purification systems, both residential and commercial, due to its antibacterial properties. As the green economy emphasizes sustainable water management, the use of silver-based water purifiers is likely to increase.
  • R e n e w a b l e    E n e r g y    S t o r a g e: Silver is a key component in batteries used for storing energy from renewable sources like solar and wind. The growth of renewable energy will necessitate more efficient energy storage solutions, boosting silver demand.
  • A n t i b a c t e r i a l    A p p l i c a t i o n s: Silver’s antimicrobial properties make it valuable in various green applications, such as textiles, bandages, and medical equipment, reducing the need for harmful chemicals.

When it comes to weather forecasting and my commodity analysis, I don’t write about the technology in the business of artificial intelligence. Nevertheless, silver has several important applications related to AI. 

Silver is an excellent conductor of electricity, making it essential for electronic components in AI systems like computer chips, circuit boards, and interconnects. Its high electrical conductivity allows for efficient data transfer and processing. It is used in memristor devices, which can mimic the behavior of biological neurons and synapses. Memristors made with silver nano-wires can form artificial neural networks for neuromorphic computing, a brain-inspired approach to AI. Silver nanoparticles and nano-wires are being researched for use in random access memory (RAM) and non-volatile memory devices that could enable faster and more energy-efficient AI hardware. 

As I mentioned above, silver is a crucial material in solar panels due to its superior electrical conductivity. Because AI systems require immense computing power and energy, solar panels with silver play a role in providing renewable energy for AI data centers.
 

So… in summary, silver’s unique properties make it an indispensable material in the global green economy, and AI technology,  particularly in renewable energy expansion, sustainable water management, and eco-friendly applications that prioritize resource efficiency and environmental stewardship.


Join ETF investors, commodity traders, and farmers who want a huge advantage in understanding how the global climate is affecting everything from coffee and soybean futures to cocoa and even silver. Receive a 2-week free trial period to WeatherWealth. https://www.bestweatherinc.com/new-membership-options/

(The only all-global weather and commodity newsletter with trading ideas)

Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!

Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and the Weather Wealth Team.

  • Please feel free to learn about Jim Roemer, our track record, and how we use weather to help traders, hedgers, and investors. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to drop me a line  – Scott Mathews, Editor

Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.

Trading futures and options involve a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is no warranty or representation that accounts following any trading program will be profitable.

“You can’t change the weather, but you can profit from it”

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Chilling Russian Wheat Freeze, Skyrocketing Corn Prices, and Mother Nature’s Wrath Worldwide

Chilling Russian Wheat Freeze, Skyrocketing Corn Prices, and Mother Nature’s Wrath Worldwide

Weekend Report – MAY 10th

From historic flooding that has jeopardized southern Brazil’s soybean crop to a major freeze in parts of western Russia and northern Ukraine’s wheat area, the world’s weather has become more and more extreme. Do you think this is just the effect of a diving El Nino???

 . . . Wrong !!!


The global heat content of the oceans has broken records set back hundreds of years (never observed before).

Now, with the USDA report out of the way, I will be monitoring the following, for WeatherWealth clients:


1) My Midwest drought easing forecast from a month ago: 

        a) Will this result in planting delays deeper into spring? 

        b) Could summer turn hot and dry? 


2) Just how bad is the freeze situation for Russian wheat vs improving weather coming for Plains wheat with good rains?


3) Will the flooding in southern Brazil be enough to cause a bull market in old crop soybeans?


4) Does coffee, cotton or cocoa have upside potential this summer or autumn, due to a transition towards La Niña?


Currently, the atmosphere is still experiencing occasional weak El Niño conditions. This could bode well for the Midwest grain harvest this summer and benefit global cocoa crops following major weather and disease issues that launched cocoa into a parabolic trajectory that took futures to historic high levels.


One of the things we study at BestWeather is the correlation of commodity prices and cycles with weather and yields.

For example, take a look at the history of December corn prices since 2000.


Without going into too much detail, the red and green bars represent the months when December corn made its first and second highs. In other words, one can see that corn’s price often rallies during June, making its high, and then falls 70-80% of the time in July and August due to good Midwest pollination weather. Of course, there are exceptions, such as the summer droughts of 2011 and 2012.

Please join farmers, commodity investors, and hedgers around the world who want better weather information, and learn how one can relate it to the markets and trading. There is no obligation, you can cancel at any time.


You will also see some of my past reports and how clients may have made over $10,000 a contract by us catching the top of the cocoa market a few weeks ago and a bearish longer-term attitude last summer in corn and soybeans. Is this changing?

Please feel free to request a complimentary trial subscription here: https://www.bestweatherinc.com/membership-sign-up/

Here are the headlines of one of three reports this past week. Also, take a look at some of the photos of extreme weather this year, already.

Snows in Salt Lake City this winter… (First time, ever, that a soccer game was played in the snow)
 

The record-warm winter helped natural gas prices to collapse 50% this past winter (once again)

Historic western winter snows often bode well for Midwest corn and soybean crops for July and August.

Frost in Ukraine helped the wheat market rally earlier this week

 Soybean market watchers will be keeping their eyes on more floods in southern Brazil vs Midwest planting and summer weather.

Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!

Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team 

Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.

Trading futures and options involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 

“You can’t change the weather, but you can profit from it”

Craving a Cup of Joe? Vietnam’s Drought Could Leave You High and Dry

Craving a Cup of Joe? Vietnam’s Drought Could Leave You High and Dry

See this video above. It covers the following:

  • Why corn prices have not rallied in the face of disease issues and lower production in Argentina
  • The near-historic drought for Vietnam’s coffee & how we called this for clients more than a month ago
  • Why El Niño-neutral conditions (not La Niña) may persist through the North American summer. This will have implications for potential improved Plains wheat weather and good planting for corn
  • A look at global crop stress

If you haven’t done so already, please feel free to download a WeatherWealth issue we published two weeks ago:

 “How to trade parabolic commodity moves and early season grain weather” here   

How a lingering El Niño & Climate Change are creating a new bull market in coffee futures

How a lingering El Niño & Climate Change are creating a new bull market in coffee futures

There’s a new bull market in town other than cocoa, gold, silver, and most recently crude oil (Middle East tensions and stronger global demand). It is coffee. Our WeatherWealth newsletter https://www.bestweatherinc.com/membership-sign-up/ advised clients close to a month ago about a potential severe drought developing for Robusta Vietnam crop regions (similar to the lingering spring El Niño conditions in 2016). 

In contrast to other firms suggesting La Niña will form this summer, we have disagreed. In fact, some computer models just came out agreeing with our feeling that occasional weak El Niño  conditions will persist until at least June or July.

So… how does that influence global coffee weather? For one thing, it may turn too wet for parts of northern Brazil’s coffee, following earlier heat and dryness in December-January. This was related.

Not only due to El Niño but also to deforestation in the Amazon and climate change.

Source: EPA.GOV

However, of even greater concern is the continuation of record levels of tight Robusta coffee supplies. Irrigation levels are extremely low. Combine this with nearly record April heat (map below) and a pesky high-pressure ridge, and one can see why Robusta prices are testing historic high levels.

Another parabolic commodity move, similar to cocoa as the planet continues to warm

Consequently, will I change my forecast to more rain and a bearish outlook? How does one use coffee spreads, futures, or options to potentially capitalize on the lingering El Niño? That is where WeatherWealth comes in. Please feel free to click on the link at the top of the page for a 2-week free trial period covering all Ag and natural gas markets. You will also receive my BestWeather Spiders with trade sentiment for a dozen commodity products… for example: Robusta coffee advised a month ago.

The temperature index score is now very bullish at a +4 with record heat in Vietnam. This makes the total score very bullish at at least a +9.

Best Weather Spider (sentiment index)

Jim Roemer

Earth’s Accelerating Spin: How Melting Poles Impact Natural Gas and Grain Markets

Earth’s Accelerating Spin: How Melting Poles Impact Natural Gas and Grain Markets

by Jim Roemer – Meteorologist – Commodity Trading Advisor – Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict – Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter 

  •  Thursday Evening Weekend Report – March 28-31, 2024  
Screenshot 2024-03-28 at 10.56.42 AM.png



Worried about losing one second of time? The melting Polar Vortex is not only creating more and more of a warming planet, but is also speeding up the Earth. 

My video (above) addresses how I predicted another warm winter, the collapse in natural gas prices and which analog years might be helpful to predict summer grain markets and crops. Enjoy!


Anyway, in the next couple of years, we’ll all lose one second from our day. It may not seem like much, but this tiny adjustment to our clocks is being impacted by the massive melting of polar ice due to climate change.

The length of our days is determined by the Earth’s rotation speed. As that spin gradually changes based on shifts in the planet’s surface and molten core, we occasionally need to add or subtract a “leap second” to stay in sync.

Source: NOAA

  • While we’ve added plenty of extra seconds over time as the rotation slowed, the Earth is now speeding up again. For the first time ever, we’ll need to remove a second instead of adding one. But, the unprecedented removal could create unforeseen issues for computing systems used to only adding time.
  • The kicker? This leap second subtraction was originally forecasted for 2026, based on the accelerating spin. However, the study shows the melting ice caps are enough to delay that milestone day of lost time all the way until 2029. A tiny difference, but one more stark reminder of the profound impact human-caused global warming has on the fundamental systems that govern our world.
  • In just a couple years, we’ll actually need to remove a second from our clocks – something that’s never been done before. And the surprising reason? Human-caused polar ice melt.
  • While the slowing effect of tides has dominated Earth’s rotation changes historically, the melting ice sheets are now a major factor speeding up our planet’s spin. As that ice shifts from the poles towards the equator, it’s causing the entire Earth to rotate faster, like a figure skater pulling in their arms.
  • However, another force in the planet’s core is outweighing even the ice melt acceleration right now. We don’t fully understand these mysterious core processes 1,800 miles below, but they are inexplicably spinning up the solid outer shell independent of the liquid core’s motion.
  • The net result is an increasingly sped-up rotation requiring that unprecedented “leap second” subtraction soon, (likely in 2026)  according to the study. It’s a seemingly minuscule adjustment, but one with huge implications for things like stock exchanges and computing systems only designed to add time, never remove it.
  • To me, it’s simply astounding that human activities like burning fossil fuels have now measurably altered something as fundamental as the literal spin of our entire planet on its axis. A stark reminder of our growing impacts.
  • When it comes to commodities, One of the impacts has of course been the collapse in natural gas prices once again. Selling natural gas in the fall and getting out in the early spring has worked “almost every time” the last few years. My Spider, which was firmly bearish at a -8 back in December, is a bit more neutral now at these prices, but I see nothing to get excited about in this market given such massive global supplies

As we head towards the spring and summer weather markets in grains and soft commodities, find out how to trade better, get a jump ahead of other weather forecast firms, with a 2-week free trial period to WeatherWealth, here:

Weather refuses to rescue natural gas and grain traders from the hungry bears

Weather refuses to rescue natural gas and grain traders from the hungry bears

February 15, 2024

A major stratospheric warming event can sometimes force very cold weather upon key natural gas heating demand areas. This is what normally happens for late February and March when the AO index goes negative. However, I have “faded” this solution to our WeatherWealth clients touting an overall bearish view in natural gas, most of this winter. 

Source:WeatherWealth newsletter at www.bestweatherinc.com
 

The record warm global oceans are contributing to latent heat release (evaporation and more water vapor in the Atmosphere). This is resulting in:

  • Improved rain chances for Argentina’s key soybean growing areas again deeper into February
  • Northern Brazil rainfall to rescue a coffee crop, beaten down by previous heat and dryness in December-January
  • A warm global outlook for natural gas regions with weakened LNG exports

In addition,  El Niño has actually strengthened a bit again. The SOI index has gone the most negative of the winter due to the MJO phase, You can see here my warm forecast for the month of March from last week:

Source:WeatherWealth newsletter at www.bestweatherinc.com


So… how do you trade natural gas, grains and other markets? After all, the CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows a large net short speculative position (managed money) in many commodities that may be bound for profit-taking. That is what we do at WeatherWealth (short and long range weather forecasts, but also specific trading strategies one cannot get from any meteorologist. For example, we told natural gas clients recently about the price comparison to the warm 2020 winter.

(chart) Natural gas prices are mimicking the warm 2020 winter. Prices are even lower than $1.60 in part due to a lack of LNG exports and warm weather in Europe as well as the US

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