Most recently, since June,we’ve stated our opinion that “fading” ALL computer models that suggested La Niña would form later this summer. In addition, all these summer grain market bulls “completely missed the boat” as our clients were advised about a potential collapse in corn and soybeans, as early as mid June on perfect summer corn belt weather!
How did we do that? First of all … standard GFS and European models are “free to the public.” You get what you pay for: erroneous models which often cannot forecast the weather accurately more than a few days in advance.
My 40-year experience in “second-guessing” computer models and my understanding of market psychology comprise The Key.
We also offer our in-house long-range weather software that all subscribers can access. It is called ClimatePredict (www.climatepredict.com).
It performs analyses of the history and behavior of teleconnections and correlates agricultural commodity crop growing areas, while incorporating:
Arctic Sea Ice (or lack thereof);
Better prediction of El Niño or La Niña;
Ocean temperatures thousands of miles away,
Dozens of other phenomena, etc
Jim Roemer’s initial objective, back in June of $9.50 soybeans (from $11) and sub $4.00 corn, helped farmers hedge their production weeks ago and aided traders in adopting various futures and options strategies. In only a couple of months, one trade alone (just in grains) would have paid for my newsletter for several years.
We are finally seeing the signs of potentially the first weather scare of the summer for some hot-dry weather. Is it time to buy corn and soybeans? Are the markets oversold?
This installment, early last week, discussed the following:
1) Fading computer models all summer, predicting record corn and soybean yields for Midwest grain farmers and the bear market (back in June). Will prices for soybeans reach $9?
2) Best Weather Spiders: How to use them to trade Ag and natural gas commodities
3) Why the next big bull market may be in coffeeas extreme drought remains in Brazil & how recent coffee market volatility based on varying weather forecasts from the recent very light Brazil frost
4) Why our bearish outlook in sugar prices from 21 cents predicting a great Indian Monsoon has now been scaled back
5) Climate Predict: BestWeather’s in-house weather and crop production model for global commodities (free with an annual subscription to WeatherWealth)
6) Trade ideas from grains to soft commodities and natural gas
Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
Trading futures and options involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
by Jim Roemer – Meteorologist – Commodity Trading Advisor – Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict – Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter
It is already well known that U.S. corn yields may surpass 180 bushels per acre and for soybeans, at least 51 bushels per acre. There still continues to be some amateur meteorologists and/or advisory services out there that are talking about everything from hot/dry western corn belt weather, to drought in Ukraine, flooding to Russia’s spring wheat crop, hoping for a bull market. Sorry, Folks … it is n o t g o i n g t o h a p p e n at any time soon.
In addition, La Niña may be super weak later this year and does NOT necessarily portend major weather problems for southern Brazil or Argentina after November.
Presently, notice how the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is negative (El Niño like). The SOI index is a major climatological variable that influences the formation of La Niña or El Niño. The index needs to be positive for 2-3 months for NOAA to officially claim a La Niña is present. When that happens, low pressure sets up over Australia and high pressure near Tahiti. The Trade Winds then blow strong from east to west over the equator bringing cooler waters further west. As you can see, there are still warm waters to the east of Australia.
To make matters worse, if a narcissistic pathological liar gets elected as President… one who only cares about himself, not about you! (you know who I am talking about), and, if you are a farmer, then there are more problems ahead for lower grain prices. You are not only going to have to contend with storage of a record 2024 corn and soybean crop, demand worries from China but a possible Trade War with China.
With regards to the weather, we told our WeatherWealth clients late last week…
…that stratospheric warming (39-50 miles up above the atmosphere) was going to force the Arctic Oscillation Index to go negative. This is a warm block aloft, above the western Arctic circle that is going to push cool fronts over the Midwest the next 2 weeks and result in more ample rain and NO extreme heat.
Combine the negative AO index and NO La Niña yet and you have the continuation of mostly ideal weather in August for Midwest crops.
Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
Trading futures and options involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
This video below talks about the following from July 5th:
How Hurricane Beryl may affect commodity markets (this is old news now)
Why it has been coffee most adversely affected by a warming planet
The potential for a bull market in grains later? Possibly, but our overall bias for weeks has been “against the crowd” predicting doom and gloom for U.S. grain crops. For now, the delay of La Niña has prevented any major widespread weather problems for corn and soybeans, other than a few isolated areas
Why traders were wrong being bullish natural gas over $3.00 a few weeks ago
Click above and also feel free to join my YouTube channel
by Jim Roemer – Meteorologist – Commodity Trading Advisor – Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict – Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter
Memorial Day Weekend Report: May 24-27, 2024
Silver plays a crucial role in the global green economy, particularly in renewable energy technologies and sustainable practices. With more global weather extremes and record-warm oceans, environmental technologies that utilize silver will only grow in the years ahead.
We have been slapped with unprecedented weather events: Historic snowfalls in California this winter and the rapid melting of Arctic ice. In addition, we have witnessed floods and landslides from Houston to southern Brazil.
The need for new technologies to combat climate change is being accelerated by only a few of the dozens of weather extremes.
Source: chart by KITCO and comments by Best Weather, Inc.
Just take a look at how record-breaking global ocean temperatures brought on climate change (to a greater extent than by El Niño) is opening the door for more silver-based technologies in the environmental sector.
We are seeing the silver market soar and the inevitable scenario is on the horizon for a $50 per ounce price tag.
Solar Energy: Silver is an essential component in photovoltaic (PV) cells built into solar panels. Silver paste is applied to silicon wafers that conduct the electricity generated from sunlight. In 2020, over 100 million ounces of silver were consumed in PV cells for solar energy. As the world transitions to renewable energy sources, demand for silver in solar panels is expected to grow significantly.
E l e c t r i c V e h i c l e s: Silver is widely used in automotive electrical systems due to its excellent conductivity. Nearly all electrical connections in modern automobiles, including those in electric and hybrid vehicles, are outfitted with silver-coated contacts and membrane switches. The rise of electric vehicles will drive increased silver demand.
W a t e r P u r i f i c a t i o n: Silver is used in water purification systems, both residential and commercial, due to its antibacterial properties. As the green economy emphasizes sustainable water management, the use of silver-based water purifiers is likely to increase.
R e n e w a b l e E n e r g y S t o r a g e: Silver is a key component in batteries used for storing energy from renewable sources like solar and wind. The growth of renewable energy will necessitate more efficient energy storage solutions, boosting silver demand.
A n t i b a c t e r i a l A p p l i c a t i o n s: Silver’s antimicrobial properties make it valuable in various green applications, such as textiles, bandages, and medical equipment, reducing the need for harmful chemicals.
When it comes to weather forecasting and my commodity analysis, I don’t write about the technology in the business of artificial intelligence. Nevertheless, silver has several important applications related to AI.
Silver is an excellent conductor of electricity, making it essential for electronic components in AI systems like computer chips, circuit boards, and interconnects. Its high electrical conductivity allows for efficient data transfer and processing. It is used in memristor devices, which can mimic the behavior of biological neurons and synapses. Memristors made with silver nano-wires can form artificial neural networks for neuromorphic computing, a brain-inspired approach to AI. Silver nanoparticles and nano-wires are being researched for use in random access memory (RAM) and non-volatile memory devices that could enable faster and more energy-efficient AI hardware.
As I mentioned above, silver is a crucial material in solar panels due to its superior electrical conductivity. Because AI systems require immense computing power and energy, solar panels with silver play a role in providing renewable energy for AI data centers.
So… in summary, silver’s unique properties make it an indispensable material in the global green economy, and AI technology, particularly in renewable energy expansion, sustainable water management, and eco-friendly applications that prioritize resource efficiency and environmental stewardship.
Join ETF investors, commodity traders, and farmers who want a huge advantage in understanding how the global climate is affecting everything from coffee and soybean futures to cocoa and even silver. Receive a 2-week free trial period to WeatherWealth. https://www.bestweatherinc.com/new-membership-options/
(The only all-global weather and commodity newsletter with trading ideas)
Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and the Weather Wealth Team.
Please feel free to learn about Jim Roemer, our track record, and how we use weather to help traders, hedgers, and investors. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to drop me a line – Scott Mathews, Editor
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
Trading futures and options involve a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is no warranty or representation that accounts following any trading program will be profitable.
“You can’t change the weather, but you can profit from it”
From historic flooding that has jeopardized southern Brazil’s soybean crop to a major freeze in parts of western Russia and northern Ukraine’s wheat area, the world’s weather has become more and more extreme. Do you think this is just the effect of a diving El Nino???
. . . Wrong !!!
The global heat content of the oceans has broken records set back hundreds of years (never observed before).
Now, with the USDA report out of the way, I will be monitoring the following, for WeatherWealth clients:
1) My Midwest drought easing forecast from a month ago:
a) Will this result in planting delays deeper into spring?
b) Could summer turn hot and dry?
2) Just how bad is the freeze situation for Russian wheat vs improving weather coming for Plains wheat with good rains?
3) Will the flooding in southern Brazil be enough to cause a bull market in old crop soybeans?
4) Does coffee, cotton or cocoa have upside potential this summer or autumn, due to a transition towards La Niña?
Currently, the atmosphere is still experiencing occasional weak El Niño conditions. This could bode well for the Midwest grain harvest this summer and benefit global cocoa crops following major weather and disease issues that launched cocoa into a parabolic trajectory that took futures to historic high levels.
One of the things we study at BestWeather is the correlation of commodity prices and cycles with weather and yields.
For example, take a look at the history of December corn prices since 2000.
Without going into too much detail, the red and green bars represent the months when December corn made its first and second highs. In other words, one can see that corn’s price often rallies during June, making its high, and then falls 70-80% of the time in July and August due to good Midwest pollination weather. Of course, there are exceptions, such as the summer droughts of 2011 and 2012.
Please join farmers, commodity investors, and hedgers around the world who want better weather information, and learn how one can relate it to the markets and trading. There is no obligation, you can cancel at any time.
You will also see some of my past reports and how clients may have made over $10,000 a contract by us catching the top of the cocoa market a few weeks ago and a bearish longer-term attitude last summer in corn and soybeans. Is this changing?
Here are the headlines of one of three reports this past week. Also, take a look at some of the photos of extreme weather this year, already.
Snows in Salt Lake City this winter… (First time, ever, that a soccer game was played in the snow)
The record-warm winter helped natural gas prices to collapse 50% this past winter (once again)
Historic western winter snows often bode well for Midwest corn and soybean crops for July and August.
Frost in Ukraine helped the wheat market rally earlier this week
Soybean market watchers will be keeping their eyes on more floods in southern Brazil vs Midwest planting and summer weather.
Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
Trading futures and options involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
“You can’t change the weather, but you can profit from it”
Why corn prices have not rallied in the face of disease issues and lower production in Argentina
The near-historic drought for Vietnam’s coffee & how we called this for clients more than a month ago
Why El Niño-neutral conditions (not La Niña) may persist through the North American summer. This will have implications for potential improved Plains wheat weather and good planting for corn
A look at global crop stress
If you haven’t done so already, please feel free to download a WeatherWealth issue we published two weeks ago:
“How to trade parabolic commodity moves and early season grain weather”here
HELPING YOU MAKE THE BEST INVESTMENT DECISIONS BASED ON THE WEATHER
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