by Jim Roemer – Meteorologist – Commodity Trading Advisor – Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict – Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter
Scott Mathews, Editor
Weekend Report – May 9-11, 2025
Source: Screenshot by Climate Predict LLC – superimposed comments and markers by BestWeather – insert of Pacific Walker Circulation image by NOAA
While the grain futures have been mostly in a bear market, even with a weaker dollar, commodities from gold to cocoa and coffee continue in bull trends. Canola prices have really been perking up.
Potentially, there is a global weather problem as the drought in China is beginning to affect some crops in parts of southern Australia.
Below, I discuss how weather and the El Niño neutral stage (neither El Niño or La Niña) is affecting every commodity from wheat to ideal Midwest corn belt weather, previous crop problems in West African cocoa and why global sugar weather is improving. How about natural gas and a possible hot summer?
As a WeatherWealth newsletter subscriber, not only do you receive trading ideas, but you also see much more accurate weather information as we “second guess” standard weather models by looking at these 28 global weather teleconnections for all Ag and natural gas commodities.
—Enjoy Jim Roemer
Source: map by USDA
– commentary and indicator arrows added by BestWeather
Source: price graph by Barchart.com
– indicator arrow and superimposed wording by BestWeather
Source: screenshot by Climate Predict LLC
Source: screenshot by Climate Predict LLC with comments and indicator arrows superimposed by BestWeather
Source: map by Agri-Food Canada (a national information service)
Source: maps by stormvistawxmodels.com – used by permission- superimposed comment and indicator arrow by BestWeather
Source: map by WeatherBELL – used by permission
Sources: three screenshots above by Climate Predict LLC
– superimposed comments and indicator arrows by BestWeather
– antarctic polar projection map insert by NOAA, with superimposed markers by BestWeather
Source: maps by USDA, with indicator arrow superimposed by BestWeather
Source: map by WeatherBELL – used by permission
Source: maps by NOAA with superimposed labels and comments by BestWeather
Source: map by NOAA with superimposed arrow indicator by BestWeather
Sources: seasonality table by MRCI (used by permission), with superimposed elements by BestWeather- Map by stormvistawxmodels.com – used by permission – comments and indicators by BestWeather
Source: BestWeather Spider – royalty free natural gas flair photo by pexels.com
Artwork created via AI software DALL-E 3 and is the property of BestWeather
Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!!!
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict LLC, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he commands a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
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Several times a year, we offer farmers and commodity traders on six continents a free issue of WeatherWealth: The only global commodity weather newsletter that focuses strictly on the weather with specific trading ideas in commodity options, futures, and ETFs.
Some of our best calls over the last two years were predicting mostly big global crops for grains and the resulting bear markets. The stronger dollar and worries over demand from China have also impacted prices adversely. La Niña did not form last summer, as I predicted it wouldn’t. This helped set the stage for a record corn and soybean crop. But, what about now?
Will a La Nada or La Niña be present when we move into 2025?Could a bull market in grains eventually form?
The biggest bull weather markets over the last 2 years have been in cocoa and coffee brought on by Climate Change, deforestation, and a previous El Niño.
In the last three winters, a trader could have sold natural gas in December and potentially gain at least 20-35% on his/her money by March. Almost every winter of the last 5 years has been warmer than normal. What about now?
Our latest newsletter (download on top of the page) discusses the following:
1) The difference between an El Niño neutral (La Nada) and La Niña
2) How winter weather could be affected by both
3) What are the MJO index, and a negative PDO index?
4) How record-warm global temperatures could offset a potential cold signal for U.S. natural gas heating demand areas
5) What will it take for the Midwest grain areas and Plains wheat to have hot, dry weather next summer?
6) Why soybean prices may remain in a downward trend
7) How Climate Change has caused an explosion in cocoa prices
8) A discussion of the volatile coffee market and the impact of recent drought stress in Brazil
9) Australian crop weather
10) La Niña and a look at historical sugar prices
11) Trading ideas in commodities, and…
12) …Much more
Enjoy,
T H A N K S F O R Y O U R I N T E R E S T I N C O M M O D I T Y W E A T H E R !!!
The headlines of our WeatherWealth newsletter (earlier this week) show what was covered in a detailed article. It discusses weather forecasting techniques and trading ideas for many commodities affected by the recent drought. You can go down to the bottom of this report and receive this entire free issue.
Over the past four years, we have been helping farmers, commodity traders, and ETF investors get a big “jump” on markets from soybeans to coffee natural gas, and many other markets. Second-guessing the standard (= FREE) weather models that everyone and their dog look at, is our specialty, as well as developing trading strategies with our 80 years of combined experience, and analysis of trading psychology of weather-driven markets.
For example, here was our advice (“Spider” from this past July) to clients who potentially made at least $1.00/bushel, by being short soybeans (and 50¢ cents in corn), on bogus weather forecasts by other firms for a drought in the Midwest.
Every few months, we offer Barcharts readers one FREE issue.
BestWeather Spider from previous WEATHERWEALTH NEWSLETTER this past summer
Currently, we have been watching Brazil’s weather very closely for clients. Notice the extreme dryness that previously helped coffee, sugar, and soybeans rally. A week ago, we began forecasting a potential “major change” in the South American weather pattern beginning next week.
Different flavors of La Niña have varying effects on South American summer weather.
Deforestation and the recent El Niño have also been a factor. One can see from my weather program below how weak vs strong La Niña events affect South American weather in October. The change in rain forecasts I began seeing for Brazil a week ago has resulted in the top of the coffee market and will also affect soybean, sugar, and OJ trading in the weeks ahead.
Russia Declares Disaster for Several Key Wheat-Producing Areas Due to Drought
Severe drought conditions in Russia in the last few months have helped wheat prices rally off their lows. What Russia does with exports and the global demand situation will be just as important as rainfall patterns both for Australian and U.S. Plains wheat in the coming months.
In the meantime, the NAO index (blocks over Greenland) has been the most positive on record this summer. This helped to bring the heat and dryness to parts of eastern Europe and western Russia.
My in in-house weather program, below, illustrates how the NAO index will go negative into the first half of October. This should bring some temporary relief from the extreme drought conditions in western Russia and may (or, may not) have some impact on the wheat market.
ClimatePredict is available for free to any WeatherWealth subscriber and covers all ag markets around the world and natural gas, as well.
So… what other weather forecast techniques are we using to predict crop prospects for South American corn and soybeans, potential globalweather problems for wheat and also trading ideas for coffee, sugar, and more?
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
Extreme heat in much of the deep south and west is beginning to create a new bull market in natural gas, but what about corn and soybeans? Right now, my biggest concern is for flooding in the NW corn belt that may mean a switch from some corn to soybean acreage. The potential also exists for some heat heading into July.
Back in April, our forecast for drought-easing Midwest rains, combined with terrible demand, helped pressure grains sharply. This collapse may be surprising in the face of lower and lower Russian wheat crop yields and damaged South American corn and soybean production. However, it will take consistent heat and dryness later to foster a new bull market in corn and soybeans.
Could this happen? Perhaps. In my view, occasional weak El Niño conditions are holding on. I predict a hot July for parts of the Midwest corn belt based on what I’m seeing about the global climate, as per the maps below. The key factors are record flood levels coming to Florida combined with a warm signal from a NINO4 and a negative PDO.
1) Solar Activity:
My point of view : T h e r e is z e r o c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n s u n s p o t c y c l e s a n d gl o b a l w e a t h e r.
Perhaps, 50-100 years ago that might have been the case… but not today, with record global ocean warming brought on by man-made influences. Do you think that all of these record-warm years are cyclical and due to the sun? Guess again… NO! The chart below shows how the planet has warmed since the 1880s whether solar activity (yellow line) was high or low.
2) Similar teleconnections and a look at July rainfall trends
The negative PDO in the Pacific, along with warming and an El Niño signal east of Australia (NINO4 region), combined with cooling near Peru (La Niña signal) has only happened simultaneously in two years since 1950. Depending on how these teleconnections fluctuate in the next few weeks, may result in a dry July in parts of the corn belt and take the bearishness out of the grain market.
3) Signs El Niño/La Niña conditions are going back and forth
Volatile global weather patterns have N O T H I N G to do with solar cycles but everything to do with record-warm global oceans and the oscillation of El Niño/La Niña among other teleconnections.
My program is available for all WeatherWealth subscribers. The purpose is to apply weather forecasts to predictions about market trends for agricultural and energy commodities.
Shown below are the incredible rains that hit Florida: more typical of El Niño lingering than La Niña
Will we enter a new bull market in corn and soybeans? For natural gas, we became bullish last week. Please feel free to download a recent complimentary sample issue of our newsletter here, or join farmers and traders around the world who want a much better edge trading commodities on the weather, with a 2-week free trial to WeatherWealth
From historic flooding that has jeopardized southern Brazil’s soybean crop to a major freeze in parts of western Russia and northern Ukraine’s wheat area, the world’s weather has become more and more extreme. Do you think this is just the effect of a diving El Nino???
. . . Wrong !!!
The global heat content of the oceans has broken records set back hundreds of years (never observed before).
Now, with the USDA report out of the way, I will be monitoring the following, for WeatherWealth clients:
1) My Midwest drought easing forecast from a month ago:
a) Will this result in planting delays deeper into spring?
b) Could summer turn hot and dry?
2) Just how bad is the freeze situation for Russian wheat vs improving weather coming for Plains wheat with good rains?
3) Will the flooding in southern Brazil be enough to cause a bull market in old crop soybeans?
4) Does coffee, cotton or cocoa have upside potential this summer or autumn, due to a transition towards La Niña?
Currently, the atmosphere is still experiencing occasional weak El Niño conditions. This could bode well for the Midwest grain harvest this summer and benefit global cocoa crops following major weather and disease issues that launched cocoa into a parabolic trajectory that took futures to historic high levels.
One of the things we study at BestWeather is the correlation of commodity prices and cycles with weather and yields.
For example, take a look at the history of December corn prices since 2000.
Without going into too much detail, the red and green bars represent the months when December corn made its first and second highs. In other words, one can see that corn’s price often rallies during June, making its high, and then falls 70-80% of the time in July and August due to good Midwest pollination weather. Of course, there are exceptions, such as the summer droughts of 2011 and 2012.
Please join farmers, commodity investors, and hedgers around the world who want better weather information, and learn how one can relate it to the markets and trading. There is no obligation, you can cancel at any time.
You will also see some of my past reports and how clients may have made over $10,000 a contract by us catching the top of the cocoa market a few weeks ago and a bearish longer-term attitude last summer in corn and soybeans. Is this changing?
Here are the headlines of one of three reports this past week. Also, take a look at some of the photos of extreme weather this year, already.
Snows in Salt Lake City this winter… (First time, ever, that a soccer game was played in the snow)
The record-warm winter helped natural gas prices to collapse 50% this past winter (once again)
Historic western winter snows often bode well for Midwest corn and soybean crops for July and August.
Frost in Ukraine helped the wheat market rally earlier this week
Soybean market watchers will be keeping their eyes on more floods in southern Brazil vs Midwest planting and summer weather.
Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
Trading futures and options involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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