Riding out hurricane Milton here in Sarasota, Florida

Riding out hurricane Milton here in Sarasota, Florida

click on video below of renowned meteorologist and commodity investing analyst Jim Roemer riding out the hurricane in Sarasota.

Windows being blown out of building and trees down. However, the situation for this area could have been a lot worse if Milton did not weaken at landfall. Though NOAA and others are saying it landed as a CAT 3 hurricane, sustained winds of around 80-90 MPH with gusts to 100 or so, was really a strong Cat 2. A big difference, though certainly many communities around Tampa, etc. had severe flooding. Tornadoes were the biggest threat in Florida (a record number)

Why La Niña may not form for a while: A look at other forecasting techniques for summer global commodities

Why La Niña may not form for a while: A look at other forecasting techniques for summer global commodities


 

  •  Friday Evening Weekend Report: June 14-16, 2024

To View Video  >  >  >    P L E A S E     C L I C K     H E R E
 

In this comprehensive weekend video,  I address:

1) A look at recent rainfall maps in the corn belt and why the grain market has not yet gotten excited about potential hot weather deeper in June or early July;


2) Rainfall forecast for the next 10 days. Some flooding and severe weather are possible in the northwest corn belt. Will this cause some replanting of corn over to soybeans?


3) Strong El Niño events… How often did they transition to La Niña?


4) Why El Niño neutral conditions should exist through at least August. What does this mean? Weather and market volatility with a fluctuating SOI index;


5) Mexico’s record heat and drought. Indications for July temperatures?


6) A look at soft commodities and market action for orange juice, coffee, and sugar;


7) What does another record-warm winter suggest for summer temperatures? Are sunspots to blame?

(

Craving a Cup of Joe? Vietnam’s Drought Could Leave You High and Dry

Craving a Cup of Joe? Vietnam’s Drought Could Leave You High and Dry

See this video above. It covers the following:

  • Why corn prices have not rallied in the face of disease issues and lower production in Argentina
  • The near-historic drought for Vietnam’s coffee & how we called this for clients more than a month ago
  • Why El Niño-neutral conditions (not La Niña) may persist through the North American summer. This will have implications for potential improved Plains wheat weather and good planting for corn
  • A look at global crop stress

If you haven’t done so already, please feel free to download a WeatherWealth issue we published two weeks ago:

 “How to trade parabolic commodity moves and early season grain weather” here   

How a lingering El Niño & Climate Change are creating a new bull market in coffee futures

How a lingering El Niño & Climate Change are creating a new bull market in coffee futures

There’s a new bull market in town other than cocoa, gold, silver, and most recently crude oil (Middle East tensions and stronger global demand). It is coffee. Our WeatherWealth newsletter https://www.bestweatherinc.com/membership-sign-up/ advised clients close to a month ago about a potential severe drought developing for Robusta Vietnam crop regions (similar to the lingering spring El Niño conditions in 2016). 

In contrast to other firms suggesting La Niña will form this summer, we have disagreed. In fact, some computer models just came out agreeing with our feeling that occasional weak El Niño  conditions will persist until at least June or July.

So… how does that influence global coffee weather? For one thing, it may turn too wet for parts of northern Brazil’s coffee, following earlier heat and dryness in December-January. This was related.

Not only due to El Niño but also to deforestation in the Amazon and climate change.

Source: EPA.GOV

However, of even greater concern is the continuation of record levels of tight Robusta coffee supplies. Irrigation levels are extremely low. Combine this with nearly record April heat (map below) and a pesky high-pressure ridge, and one can see why Robusta prices are testing historic high levels.

Another parabolic commodity move, similar to cocoa as the planet continues to warm

Consequently, will I change my forecast to more rain and a bearish outlook? How does one use coffee spreads, futures, or options to potentially capitalize on the lingering El Niño? That is where WeatherWealth comes in. Please feel free to click on the link at the top of the page for a 2-week free trial period covering all Ag and natural gas markets. You will also receive my BestWeather Spiders with trade sentiment for a dozen commodity products… for example: Robusta coffee advised a month ago.

The temperature index score is now very bullish at a +4 with record heat in Vietnam. This makes the total score very bullish at at least a +9.

Best Weather Spider (sentiment index)

Jim Roemer

Atmospheric Rivers, West Africa’s Harmattan Wind & Historical Price Moves in Cocoa

Atmospheric Rivers, West Africa’s Harmattan Wind & Historical Price Moves in Cocoa

This video addresses the climatic factors that are causing an unprecedented price move in cocoa and what will bring drought-easing rains to Plains wheat — Enjoy!


Our BestWeather Spider became bullish more than a week ago, catching this historic move up in prices on new concerns about a dry, dusty wind in West Africa called the “Harmattan.” However, at these price levels, the only way to trade cocoa is by using sophisticated strategies in options and spreads, as we already had the move I expected.
 

Learn how to use these Weather Spiders from soft to grain and natural gas commodities to make potentially profitable trades here https://www.bestweatherinc.com/new-membership-options/

Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!
 

Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team 

  • Please feel free to learn about Jim Roemer, our track record, and how we use weather to help traders, hedgers, and investors. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to drop me a line  – Scott Mathews, Editor

Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.

Trading futures and options involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is no warranty or representation that accounts following any trading program will be profitable.

“You can’t change the weather, but you can profit from it”

Monitoring global weather extremes for soybeans, sugar, cocoa, and coffee and a look at climatological factors

Monitoring global weather extremes for soybeans, sugar, cocoa, and coffee and a look at climatological factors

CLICK ABOVE TO WATCH A SPECIAL VIDEO

The video above discusses the weather extremes affecting South America’s soybeans, coffee, and sugar crops.

Will the chances for rain increase in drought-stricken N. Brazil and the floods ever abate in southern Brazil? There could be some important rains (down the road) for northern Brazil, with flooding occurring to the south. So how do you trade coffee and soybeans and what is my longer-term view?

Find out our futures, ETFs, and option strategies in our WeatherWealth newsletter and join farmers and traders around the world who have benefited from the only meteorologist who is—a commodity trading advisor with 38 years of experience.