This video by Jim Roemer discusses the potential winter weather forecast:
1) How strong LNG exports and “feed gas” demand previously helped natural gas prices rally to over $4.00
2) How Jim called the top in the market 1-2 weeks ago, as trader sentiment always shifts to weather and the shoulder month comes in mid-October
3) What is the POL index? Its positive nature means the polar vortex could stay well north of the U.S. most of this winter
4) Our initial (winter weather forecast) December temperature outlook. If this verifies, natural gas prices could fall below $3 in the winter contracts
This video by Jim Roemer (AKA Dr. Weather) addresses:
A) Why forecasts for warmer weather deeper in February helped pressure natural gas and the ETF (BOIL) some 50% since the polar vortex and bull market, two weeks ago.
B) Why parts of the northern U.S., including the Northeast, will have off and on bouts of colder weather, vs warm weather over the Midwest and deep south
C) What is the significance of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in phase 4/5 and the negative GLAAM (Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum) and why these are usually warm, bearish signals for natural gas.
D) A very strong -WPO-/-NAO signal: Why typically this would result in major cold U.S. weather and a bull move in natural gas prices.
E) When having all of these different climatic forces (teleconnections), why using option strangles selling way out of the money call and put options in natural gas, will help capture price volatility
1)How stratospheric warming helped natural gas prices surge over $5.00 in early December, only to come crashing down on the warmer late month outlook. That warming aloft will begin to weaken.
2)What is a -WPO and -NAO index? It will bring much colder weather to Europe and perhaps New England as we head towards the end of the month, However, since the negative NAO will be more eased based, that would favor Europe seeing more consistent snows into January rather than much of the central and eastern U.S.
3)How a +EPO index (cold pool near Alaska) and strong western U.S. troughs (-PNA) will offset a potential cold January weather pattern for the U.S. This means that most U.S. natural gas areas will be warmer than normal.
4)How strong vs weak La Niña events affect the weather in January
Following some free reports about weather and commodities here on Substack
GLAAM stands for Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum in weather forecasting. It is sometimes referred to as GAM and/or GLAM, but they all refer to the same phenomenon. It measures the atmosphere’s rotation, combining Earth’s spin and wind patterns, acting as a crucial index for global circulation and Earth’s rotation, used to understand large-scale climate patterns like ENSO and predict seasonal changes, linking atmospheric shifts to length-of-day variations via numerical models.
There are both positive and negative angular momentum phenomena, and it is the negative GLAAM that is responsible for the mid-late December warm up over most of the United States and (as of this writing) the massive 20% sell-off in natural gas in just a few days.
Key Concepts
What it is: A measure of the total rotational momentum of the atmosphere around Earth’s axis, calculated by integrating wind speeds and densities across the globe.
Components: It includes the momentum from Earth’s own rotation (mass term) and the momentum from atmospheric winds (wind term), which vary seasonally.
Why it Matters:
Earth’s Rotation: Fluctuations in GLAAM directly affect the Earth’s rotation speed and thus the length of the day (LOD).
Atmospheric Dynamics: It helps study how mountains, surface friction, and jet streams influence global weather patterns.
How it is used in forecasting:
Monitoring: Atmospheric angular momentum is monitored in real-time using data from numerical weather models (like NASA’s GEOS models).
Seasonal Forecasts: Negative GLAAM often signals conditions favoring La Niña, potentially leading to cooler, snowier winters in certain regions, while positive GLAAM links to El Niño patterns.
Predictability: Studies suggest long-range forecasts of GLAAM (up to a year) are possible, offering insights into future climate.
In essence, GLAAM provides a unified view of atmospheric dynamics, linking winds to Earth’s rotation and helping forecast broader climate trends.
Negative global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) is associated with La Niña conditions and can contribute to warmer winter weather in parts of the U.S. by altering global circulation patterns, particularly the jet stream.
During a negative GLAAM phase, the atmosphere moves more slowly relative to the Earth’s surface. Thinks of it like the skater to the right.
This change is consistent with and helps maintain La Niña conditions. During La Niña, the trade winds blowing east-to-west across the tropical Pacific are stronger than usual. These strong trade winds push warm surface water toward Asia, allowing colder, nutrient-rich water to upwell along the American west coast. This process is a key feature of La Niña, and the associated atmospheric circulation changes are reflected in the negative GLAAM.
Will the Polar Vortex come south again by January? Will GLAAM go in the opposite direction and become positive? If so, natural gas prices would rally again, as we approach January.
That is what we do at WeatherWealth: We “out forecast” standard weather models and making trade recommendations for clients in soft, grain and natural gas commodities on six continents.
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The BestWeather Spider is considered a reliable tool for commodity traders because it integrates advanced weather forecasting (including factors like El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole) with market analysis to anticipate how weather events will impact commodity prices.
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Jim Roemer’s approach uses both meteorological data and market fundamentals, providing actionable insights that help traders and farmers make informed decisions in volatile markets.The Spider’s recommendations are regularly updated in the WeatherWealth newsletter, which further enhances its reliability through continuous analysis and expert commentary.
Jim Roemer’s BestWeather Commodity Spider is a proprietary tool that combines weather analysis, technical analysis, and other market fundamentals to help commodity traders anticipate price movements in markets like grains, energy, and soft commodities. The Spider provides actionable insights by showing how weather patterns and forecasts may impact specific commodities, giving both experienced and novice traders an edge in making informed trading decisions. It is part of the broader suite of services offered by Best Weather Inc., which includes newsletters and reports with trade recommendations based on meteorological data and market analysis.
Jim Roemer’s BestWeather Commodity Spider predicts market moves by integrating several key factors:
Weather analysis: It assesses global weather patterns—such as El Niño, La Niña, droughts, and temperature anomalies—that can impact crop yields and energy demand
Technical analysis: The Spider incorporates chart patterns and market signals to identify trends or reversals in commodity prices.
Market fundamentals: It evaluates supply and demand factors, currency movements, and geopolitical events that influence commodity markets
Market psychology: The tool interprets trader sentiment and behavioral patterns to anticipate potential market reactions.
By combining these elements, the Spider provides actionable insights and trade ideas for commodities like grains, energy, coffee, and cocoa, helping traders anticipate and respond to market shifts
HELPING YOU MAKE THE BEST INVESTMENT DECISIONS BASED ON THE WEATHER
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