In this video (click above), I discuss the MJO index and how we use it as a weather forecasting tool in conjunction with El Niño:
Where the MJO will move to, and if it will influence the outcome of northern Brazil’s soybean drought;
the potential for a colder outlook in U.S. natural gas heating demand areas; and
a continuation of disease issues for West African cocoa.
While Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures are very warm suggesting strong El Niño conditions, other variables do not justify El Niño being more than weak-to-moderate.
For example, the MEI index (above) is a better representation of how strong El Niño is. This takes into account global atmospheric angular momentum GLAAM), and the SOI index and is also influenced by the progression and strength of the MJO.
Feel free to download a complimentary issue of one of my full WeatherWealth reports with recent trade ideas here and how we forecast longer-range weather for farmers and traders on six continents.
This video (click above) talks about the Amazon rain forest, the teleconnections that will influence November weather, and how heavy rains and flooding in parts of central and southern Brazil are impacting soybean planting, and the sugar cane harvest but benefitting coffee trees.
A cold late October and possibly November will be the rule for parts of the Midwest and Eastern U.S. This is because El Niño is weak-moderate (not a strong El Niño event), and a negative GLAAM is present.
The video above discusses Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum (GLAAM) and how that can influence El Niño and winter weather.
A cold late fall and early winter could keep natural gas prices firm on breaks if (GLAAM) remains negative and El Niño does not strengthen.
However, it remains to be seen if there will be a longer-term bull market in natural gas, for which inventories are still large. The recent rally in prices was due to pre-winter hedge fund buying, war tensions overseas, and lower rig counts,
If GLAAM remains negative and El Niño is weaker
The globe had yet another record-warm year and the Arctic and oceans are warming at a record pace. This could offset what would otherwise be a consistent severely cold northern Hemispheric winter. But if global angular momentum (GLAAM) remains negative, this could offset Climate Change a bit.
If GLAAM becomes positive and El Niño strengthens
In contrast, strong El Niño events are often accompanied by positive GLAAM and warm winters. If this occurs, a bear market in natural gas prices will occur.
I will be developing various natural gas futures, options, and ETF strategies for subscribers, shortly.
January snow cover with negative and positive GLAAM
By mid-winter, negative GLAAM winters typically have above-normal snowfall in the Northeast and parts of Europe and Asia (bottom image).
Negative GLAAM usually refers to La Niña, but there are weak to moderate El Niño events that can occur and be quite snowy.
In contrast, the winters with the strongest +GLAAM (top image) and El Niño have below-normal snowfall in the eastern U.S. and would be bad news for ski resorts and bearish implications for natural gas and heating oil spreads. However, winter has not started yet and a lot can happen.
Negative GLAAM winters often are snowy in parts of the eastern U.S., Europe, and Asia.
Other than off-again, on-again news about the Ukraine-Russian grain initiative that is affecting trading, this video below talks more about El Nino, the Canada drought, and improving Midwest grain weather.