What is the BestWeather Spider & How to use it to trade commodities?

What is the BestWeather Spider & How to use it to trade commodities?

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The BestWeather Spider is considered a reliable tool for commodity traders because it integrates advanced weather forecasting (including factors like El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole) with market analysis to anticipate how weather events will impact commodity prices. 

Screenshot

Jim Roemer’s approach uses both meteorological data and market fundamentals, providing actionable insights that help traders and farmers make informed decisions in volatile markets. The Spider’s recommendations are regularly updated in the WeatherWealth newsletter, which further enhances its reliability through continuous analysis and expert commentary.

Jim Roemer’s BestWeather Commodity Spider is a proprietary tool that combines weather analysis, technical analysis, and other market fundamentals to help commodity traders anticipate price movements in markets like grains, energy, and soft commodities. The Spider provides actionable insights by showing how weather patterns and forecasts may impact specific commodities, giving both experienced and novice traders an edge in making informed trading decisions. It is part of the broader suite of services offered by Best Weather Inc., which includes newsletters and reports with trade recommendations based on meteorological data and market analysis.

Jim Roemer’s BestWeather Commodity Spider predicts market moves by integrating several key factors:

  • Weather analysis: It assesses global weather patterns—such as El Niño, La Niña, droughts, and temperature anomalies—that can impact crop yields and energy demand
  • Technical analysis: The Spider incorporates chart patterns and market signals to identify trends or reversals in commodity prices.
  • Market fundamentals: It evaluates supply and demand factors, currency movements, and geopolitical events that influence commodity markets
  • Market psychology: The tool interprets trader sentiment and behavioral patterns to anticipate potential market reactions.

By combining these elements, the Spider provides actionable insights and trade ideas for commodities like grains, energy, coffee, and cocoa, helping traders anticipate and respond to market shifts

What is the Indian Ocean Dipole? & How does it impact crops and global commodity markets?

What is the Indian Ocean Dipole? & How does it impact crops and global commodity markets?

What is the Indian Ocean Dipole?

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a climate phenomenon affecting the Indian Ocean. During a positive phase, warmth is pushed to the Western part of that body of water, while cold deep waters are brought up to the surface in the eastern end of the Indian Ocean. This pattern is reversed during the negative phase of the IOD. It is also known as the Indian Niño, as it draws similarity with the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

What are we looking at?

The plot tracks the conditions in the Indian Ocean, showing the phase of the IOD both now and in the past. Right now we are in a negative phase.

When the value of the time series is positive (red shading), the warm phase of the IOD is present with higher sea level in the western Indian Ocean and lower sea level in the eastern Indian Ocean.

When the value is negative (blue shading on graph above), the cool phase of the IOD is present with lower sea level in the western Indian Ocean and higher sea level in the eastern Indian Ocean. This is what we have today.

Why is it important in commodity trading?

The IOD influences tropical commodities in Africa, Australia and Southeast Asia the most.

During the positive phase of the IOD, the high temperatures along the coast of Africa cause heavy rains and droughts in Australia.

During a negative phase the high temperatures and rainfall patterns are reversed. The sea-level changes associated with the IOD can also lead to increased threats of coastal flooding and associated impacts. However, for west Africa, a negative IOD phase coupled with an El Niño can bring bull markets for cocoa with dry spring and summers often occurring affecting the main crops in Ivory Coast and Ghana.

Presently, we have an El Niño neutral situation and a developing negative Indian Dipole. Hence, the situation is a bit confusing, but could portend a decent (not great) main cocoa crop and possibly take the steam out of the recent two year bull market.

Source: Jim Roemer (Climatepredict software): “If there was an El Niñno in 2025, which there is not, drier weather and a potential bull market would occur this summer

My cocoa Spider has been bullish recently on a weaker dollar and a poor mid-crop hitting the market. These Spiders appear in my WeatherWealth newsletter (each week) to help grain farmers and traders in multiple markets around the world. Special 70% discounts to WeatherWealth are available for small traders and farmers after your free trial.

The negative phase of the IOD brings about the opposite conditions of a positive IOD, with warmer water and greater precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean, and cooler and drier conditions in the west.

The IOD also affects the strength of monsoons over the Indian subcontinent. This is what we have presently: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole, whose effects should be for a general good monsoon in India that tends to be bearish commodities such as sugar.

The impact of monsoons on Indian farmers

A majority of India’s GDP is dependent on the growth and production of agriculture. India is an agrarian nation, with more than 50% of the population earning their livelihood in agriculture.

The monsoon is the most important season for farmers in this country. A majority of Indian agricultural land is watered by the southwest monsoon. Field crops such as sugar, cotton, wheat, rice, and legumes are staple foods in India. They require strong rainfall in order to grow.

Does the Indian Monsoon affect summer corn belt weather?

There is only a little evidence that the Indian monsoon has a significant or consistent effect on Midwest Corn Belt weather. The Midwest’s weather and crop yields are primarily influenced by local factors such as precipitation recycling, land use, and groundwater, as well as larger-scale patterns like El Niño and La Niña. While global weather systems can sometimes interact, and changes in major monsoon systems may have indirect or minor effects on global atmospheric circulation, any direct linkage between the Indian monsoon and Midwest Corn Belt weather is not established in the search results.

You can see on my ClimatePredict program below (available to subscribers to WeatherWealth newsletter), there is a slight (-.31) correlation of the Indian Dipole and July corn belt rainfall.

In other words, a negative IOD, which is negatively correlated, suggests a slight chance for above normal corn belt rains (two negatives = a positive value). Notice, however, the correlation is much higher with El Niño/La Niña (+1.01). An El Niño (warm ocean signal) is positively correlated with corn belt rain. In other words wet, while La Niña is the opposite– a dry bullish signal like 2011 and 2012. Right now, we have mixed “El Niño neutral” conditions.

July temperature tends to to be hotter than normal for the Midwest corn belt with a negative IOD. Here too, the correlation is much weaker with the IOD than El Niño/La Niña and other teleconnections

Conclusion:

It promises to be another wild summer for the grain market, as the potential for hot summer weather will increase market volatility. The Indian Ocean Dipole being negative and an “El Niño neutral” event does suggest that most (not all) of the Midwest grain belt should have decent summer rains.

With respect to soft commodities, potential crop problems may continue for parts of West African cocoa, while Robusta coffee and sugar crops recover in Southeast Asia. This could keep these two commodities in a more longer term bear market. Of course, the behavior of the Brazilian Real, US dollar and crops in various locations will also play a role.

In Living Color: Images Explain the “El Niño Neutral” Impact on Global Crops & Commodity Markets

In Living Color: Images Explain the “El Niño Neutral” Impact on Global Crops & Commodity Markets

To receive a FREE complimentary issue of WeatherWealth

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by Jim Roemer – Meteorologist – Commodity Trading Advisor – Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict – Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter 

Scott Mathews, Editor

  • Weekend Report – May 9-11, 2025
  • Source: Screenshot by Climate Predict LLC – superimposed comments and markers by BestWeather – insert of Pacific Walker Circulation image by NOAA

While the grain futures have been mostly in a bear market, even with a weaker dollar, commodities from gold to cocoa and coffee continue in bull trends. Canola prices have really been perking up.

Potentially, there is a global weather problem as the drought in China is beginning to affect some crops in parts of southern Australia. 

Below, I discuss how weather and the El Niño neutral stage (neither El Niño or La Niña) is affecting every commodity from wheat to ideal Midwest corn belt weather, previous crop problems in West African cocoa and why global sugar weather is improving.  How about natural gas and a possible hot summer?

As a WeatherWealth newsletter subscriber, not only do you receive trading ideas, but you also see much more accurate weather information as we “second guess” standard weather models by looking at these 28 global weather teleconnections for all Ag and natural gas commodities.

—Enjoy Jim Roemer

Source: map by USDA

–  commentary and indicator arrows added by BestWeather

Source: price graph by Barchart.com

– indicator arrow and superimposed wording by BestWeather

  • Source:  screenshot by Climate Predict LLC
  • Source: screenshot by Climate Predict LLC with comments and indicator arrows superimposed by BestWeather
  • Source: map by Agri-Food Canada (a national information service)
  • Source: maps by stormvistawxmodels.com – used by permission- superimposed comment and indicator arrow by BestWeather

Source: map by WeatherBELL – used by permission

Sources: three screenshots above by Climate Predict LLC

– superimposed comments and indicator arrows by BestWeather

– antarctic polar projection map insert by NOAA, with superimposed markers by BestWeather

  • Source: maps by USDA, with indicator arrow superimposed by BestWeather
  • Source: map by WeatherBELL – used by permission
  • Source: maps by NOAA with superimposed labels and comments by BestWeather
  • Source: map by NOAA with superimposed arrow indicator by BestWeather
  • Sources: seasonality table by MRCI (used by permission), with superimposed elements by BestWeather- Map by stormvistawxmodels.com – used by permission – comments and indicators by BestWeather
  • Source: BestWeather Spider – royalty free natural gas flair photo by pexels.com 

https://www.bestweatherinc.com/new-membership-options/

  • Artwork created via AI software DALL-E 3 and is the property of BestWeather 

Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!!!

Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict LLC, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he commands a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry. 

This article contains syndicated content. We have not reviewed, approved, or endorsed the content, and may receive compensation for placement of the content on this site. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

(FREE ISSUE OF WEATHER WEALTH): From Natural Gas to Grains and Soft Commodities: Weak La Niña Impacts

(FREE ISSUE OF WEATHER WEALTH): From Natural Gas to Grains and Soft Commodities: Weak La Niña Impacts

Click on image to download your free issue

Several times a year, we offer farmers and commodity traders on six continents a free issue of WeatherWealth: The only global commodity weather newsletter that focuses strictly on the weather with specific trading ideas in commodity options, futures, and ETFs. 

Some of our best calls over the last two years were predicting mostly big global crops for grains and the resulting bear markets. The stronger dollar and worries over demand from China have also impacted prices adversely. La Niña did not form last summer, as I predicted it wouldn’t. This helped set the stage for a record corn and soybean crop. But, what about now? 

Will a La Nada or La Niña be present when we move into 2025? Could a bull market in grains eventually form? 

The biggest bull weather markets over the last 2 years have been in cocoa and coffee brought on by Climate Change, deforestation, and a previous El Niño. 

In the last three winters, a trader could have sold natural gas in December and potentially gain at least 20-35% on his/her money by March. Almost every winter of the last 5 years has been warmer than normal. What about now? 

Our latest newsletter (download on top of the page) discusses the following:
 

  • 1) The difference between an El Niño neutral (La Nada) and La Niña
  • 2) How winter weather could be affected by both
  • 3) What are the MJO index, and a negative PDO index?
  • 4) How record-warm global temperatures could offset a potential cold signal for U.S. natural gas heating demand areas
  • 5) What will it take for the Midwest grain areas and Plains wheat to have hot, dry weather next summer?
  • 6) Why soybean prices may remain in a downward trend
  • 7) How Climate Change has caused an explosion in cocoa prices
  • 8) A discussion of the volatile coffee market and the impact of recent drought stress in Brazil
  • 9) Australian crop weather
  • 10) La Niña and a look at historical sugar prices
  • 11) Trading ideas in commodities, and…
  • 12) …Much more

Enjoy,

T H A N K S    F O R    Y O U R    I N T E R E S T    I N    C O M M O D I T Y    W E A T H E R  !!!

Underwater volcanoes, the delay in La Niña, and implications for the natural gas market

Underwater volcanoes, the delay in La Niña, and implications for the natural gas market

Weekend Energy Report – November 1-3, 2024

In this video, I talk about the following:

1) What is the Western Pacific Warm Pool and why it has delayed La Niña

2) How the 2022 Tonga volcanoes may have contributed to the western Pacific warming

3) How our computer program www.climatepredict.com forecasted a warm autumn that has pressured natural gas prices

(available to subscribers to our newsletter WeatherWealth)

4) An historical look at why natural gas prices have fallen in four out of the last five consecutive autumn-to-early-winter periods.

Given the record warm oceans and Gulf of Mexico, a tropical storm or hurricane is not out of the realm of possibilities for November 7th-8th.

Sign up for a two-week free trial period to WeatherWealth and you can see our recent trading strategies for coffee, sugar, grains, and more and how to potentially trade these markets in the future.

https://www.bestweatherinc.com/new-membership-options/.  (sign up here… UNLESS you have already gotten a free trial or free sample issue!!!) Repeat “moochers” will be blocked.

Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!

Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team 

Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.


On the date of publication, Jim Roemer did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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Commodity Trading Implications: An easing of the Brazil drought, different flavors of La Niña & Russian Wheat drought

Commodity Trading Implications: An easing of the Brazil drought, different flavors of La Niña & Russian Wheat drought

  • Friday Evening Report – October 4, 2024

The headlines of our WeatherWealth newsletter (earlier this week) show what was covered in a detailed article. It discusses weather forecasting techniques and trading ideas for many commodities affected by the recent drought. You can go down to the bottom of this report and receive this entire free issue.

Over the past four years, we have been helping farmers, commodity traders, and ETF investors get a big “jump” on markets from soybeans to coffee natural gas, and many other markets. Second-guessing the standard (= FREE) weather models that everyone and their dog look at, is our specialty, as well as developing trading strategies with our 80 years of combined experience, and analysis of trading psychology of weather-driven markets.


For example, here was our advice (“Spider” from this past July) to clients who potentially made at least $1.00/bushel, by being short soybeans (and 50¢ cents in corn), on bogus weather forecasts by other firms for a drought in the Midwest.


Every few months, we offer Barcharts readers one FREE issue.

BestWeather Spider from previous WEATHERWEALTH NEWSLETTER this past summer


Currently, we have been watching Brazil’s weather very closely for clients. Notice the extreme dryness that previously helped coffee, sugar, and soybeans rally. A week ago, we began forecasting a potential “major change” in the South American weather pattern beginning next week.

Different flavors of La Niña have varying effects on South American summer weather. 

Deforestation and the recent El Niño have also been a factor. One can see from my weather program below how weak vs strong La Niña events affect South American weather in October. The change in rain forecasts I began seeing for Brazil a week ago has resulted in the top of the coffee market and will also affect soybean, sugar, and OJ trading in the weeks ahead.

Russia Declares Disaster for Several Key Wheat-Producing Areas Due to Drought


Severe drought conditions in Russia in the last few months have helped wheat prices rally off their lows. What Russia does with exports and the global demand situation will be just as important as rainfall patterns both for Australian and U.S. Plains wheat in the coming months.


In the meantime, the NAO index (blocks over Greenland) has been the most positive on record this summer. This helped to bring the heat and dryness to parts of eastern Europe and western Russia.


My in in-house weather program, below, illustrates how the NAO index will go negative into the first half of October. This should bring some temporary relief from the extreme drought conditions in western Russia and may (or, may not) have some impact on the wheat market.

ClimatePredict is available for free to any WeatherWealth subscriber and covers all ag markets around the world and natural gas, as well.
 

So… what other weather forecast techniques are we using to predict crop prospects for South American corn and soybeans, potential global weather problems for wheat and also trading ideas for coffee, sugar, and more?

Download the latest free issue of WeatherWealth here.   https://www.bestweatherinc.com/weather-wealth-sample/

Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team

Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.