by Jim Roemer – Meteorologist – Commodity Trading Advisor – Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict – Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter
Scott Mathews, Editor
Weekend Report – May 9-11, 2025
Source: Screenshot by Climate Predict LLC – superimposed comments and markers by BestWeather – insert of Pacific Walker Circulation image by NOAA
While the grain futures have been mostly in a bear market, even with a weaker dollar, commodities from gold to cocoa and coffee continue in bull trends. Canola prices have really been perking up.
Potentially, there is a global weather problem as the drought in China is beginning to affect some crops in parts of southern Australia.
Below, I discuss how weather and the El Niño neutral stage (neither El Niño or La Niña) is affecting every commodity from wheat to ideal Midwest corn belt weather, previous crop problems in West African cocoa and why global sugar weather is improving. How about natural gas and a possible hot summer?
As a WeatherWealth newsletter subscriber, not only do you receive trading ideas, but you also see much more accurate weather information as we “second guess” standard weather models by looking at these 28 global weather teleconnections for all Ag and natural gas commodities.
—Enjoy Jim Roemer
Source: map by USDA
– commentary and indicator arrows added by BestWeather
Source: price graph by Barchart.com
– indicator arrow and superimposed wording by BestWeather
Source: screenshot by Climate Predict LLC
Source: screenshot by Climate Predict LLC with comments and indicator arrows superimposed by BestWeather
Source: map by Agri-Food Canada (a national information service)
Source: maps by stormvistawxmodels.com – used by permission- superimposed comment and indicator arrow by BestWeather
Source: map by WeatherBELL – used by permission
Sources: three screenshots above by Climate Predict LLC
– superimposed comments and indicator arrows by BestWeather
– antarctic polar projection map insert by NOAA, with superimposed markers by BestWeather
Source: maps by USDA, with indicator arrow superimposed by BestWeather
Source: map by WeatherBELL – used by permission
Source: maps by NOAA with superimposed labels and comments by BestWeather
Source: map by NOAA with superimposed arrow indicator by BestWeather
Sources: seasonality table by MRCI (used by permission), with superimposed elements by BestWeather- Map by stormvistawxmodels.com – used by permission – comments and indicators by BestWeather
Source: BestWeather Spider – royalty free natural gas flair photo by pexels.com
Artwork created via AI software DALL-E 3 and is the property of BestWeather
Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!!!
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict LLC, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he commands a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
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by Jim Roemer – Meteorologist – Commodity Trading Advisor – Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict – Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter
Thursday Evening Weekend Report – March 28-31, 2024
Worried about losing one second of time? The melting Polar Vortex is not only creating more and more of a warming planet, but is also speeding up the Earth.
My video (above) addresses how I predicted another warm winter, the collapse in natural gas prices and which analog years might be helpful to predict summer grain markets and crops. Enjoy!
Anyway, in the next couple of years, we’ll all lose one second from our day. It may not seem like much, but this tiny adjustment to our clocks is being impacted by the massive melting of polar ice due to climate change.
The length of our days is determined by the Earth’s rotation speed. As that spin gradually changes based on shifts in the planet’s surface and molten core, we occasionally need to add or subtract a “leap second” to stay in sync.
Source:NOAA
While we’ve added plenty of extra seconds over time as the rotation slowed, the Earth is now speeding up again. For the first time ever, we’ll need to remove a second instead of adding one. But, the unprecedented removal could create unforeseen issues for computing systems used to only adding time.
The kicker? This leap second subtraction was originally forecasted for 2026, based on the accelerating spin. However, the study shows the melting ice caps are enough to delay that milestone day of lost time all the way until 2029. A tiny difference, but one more stark reminder of the profound impact human-caused global warming has on the fundamental systems that govern our world.
In just a couple years, we’ll actually need to remove a second from our clocks – something that’s never been done before. And the surprising reason? Human-caused polar ice melt.
While the slowing effect of tides has dominated Earth’s rotation changes historically, the melting ice sheets are now a major factor speeding up our planet’s spin. As that ice shifts from the poles towards the equator, it’s causing the entire Earth to rotate faster, like a figure skater pulling in their arms.
However, another force in the planet’s core is outweighing even the ice melt acceleration right now. We don’t fully understand these mysterious core processes 1,800 miles below, but they are inexplicably spinning up the solid outer shell independent of the liquid core’s motion.
The net result is an increasingly sped-up rotation requiring that unprecedented “leap second” subtraction soon, (likely in 2026) according to the study. It’s a seemingly minuscule adjustment, but one with huge implications for things like stock exchanges and computing systems only designed to add time, never remove it.
To me, it’s simply astounding that human activities like burning fossil fuels have now measurably altered something as fundamental as the literal spin of our entire planet on its axis. A stark reminder of our growing impacts.
When it comes to commodities, One of the impacts has of course been the collapse in natural gas prices once again. Selling natural gas in the fall and getting out in the early spring has worked “almost every time” the last few years. My Spider, which was firmly bearish at a -8 back in December, is a bit more neutral now at these prices, but I see nothing to get excited about in this market given such massive global supplies
As we head towards the spring and summer weather markets in grains and soft commodities, find out how to trade better, get a jump ahead of other weather forecast firms, with a 2-week free trial period to WeatherWealth, here:
My video talks about what is going on in South America concerning some new weather problems for soybeans, sugar cane, and possibly coffee (though recent rains have been great news for the early coffee bloom in Brazil).
I also show some interesting images of historic artifacts being exposed by lowering water levels and record drought in the Brazil Amazon, and a look at solar cycle 25 and the active sun.
Sunspot cycles occur every 11 years. Without going into too much detail, the number of sunspots is approaching 2014 levels. In layman’s terms, this means the next sunspot cycle peak should not occur until at least 2024 or 2025.
In my view, and of many NOAA and MIT scientists: “solar cycles do not have the effect they once had on global weather due to the warming planet and stratosphere.”
Currently, it is El Niño and the Amazon rainforest drought and deforestation emergency that will determine many agricultural commodity price moves based on South American weather over the next few months.
Sign up for my El Niño report and some occasional free weather and commodity updates below.
This video (click above) talks about the Amazon rain forest, the teleconnections that will influence November weather, and how heavy rains and flooding in parts of central and southern Brazil are impacting soybean planting, and the sugar cane harvest but benefitting coffee trees.
El Niño weather conditions can have varying impacts on different commodity sectors. Here are some of the sectors typically most adversely affected during El Niño years:
Agriculture – El Niño often brings heavy rains and flooding to parts of South America, which can damage crops like soybeans, corn, wheat, rice, coffee and sugarcane. Food production and crop yields tend to decline in affected regions.
Energy – El Niño winters tend to be warmer than average in the US, decreasing demand for heating oil and natural gas. Milder winters can also reduce electricity demand. This drop in energy demand can negatively impact the oil, natural gas and power sectors.
Metals & Mining – Heavy rains from El Niño can disrupt mining operations for commodities like coal, copper, iron ore and gold in countries like Indonesia, Chile, Peru and Australia. This can constrain output and drive prices higher.
Palm Oil – Production of palm oil in Southeast Asia, especially in Malaysia and Indonesia, tends to fall during El Niño events due to reduced rainfall and drought conditions. Supply disruptions can lead to higher prices.
Fishmeal – El Niño conditions often drive anchovy populations away from the coast of Peru, resulting in reduced catches of this fish that is processed into fishmeal and fish oil. This can impact the global supply of fishmeal for animal feed.
Presently, this is what I have been watching for my WeatherWealth newsletter clients with various futures, ETFs and option trade ideas. Climate change is also having a major global effect.
A) Weak Indian Monsoon for oilseeds, sugar, wheat, oilseeds, rice, and possibly cotton
B) Australia’s and Argentina’s developing drought for wheat
C) China’s historical heat waves and mixed floods and droughts may have damaged some of the corn and especially cotton crops.
D)Record warm oceans creating too much rain for the West African cocoa crop where disease issues have helped prices rally 10% more in the last 2 months.
E) Wet September weather in northern Brazil could cause some harvest delays or sucrose dilution to the sugar crop and cause an early bloom for coffee that is not wanted
India’s August rainfall may be the lowest since 1901
El Niño often disrupts the Indian Monsoon. The monsoon is very important to India’s economy and has a $3 trillion annual effect on agriculture. Presently, it is the driest since 1901 and I do not see that trend changing, following excellent July rains. This will have a “lag” effect on markets such as soybean oil, sugar, rice, wheat, and possibly cotton and be one partially bullish factor in these markets.
HELPING YOU MAKE THE BEST INVESTMENT DECISIONS BASED ON THE WEATHER
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