Factors affecting commodities and why the brazil drought will ease (VIDEO)

Factors affecting commodities and why the brazil drought will ease (VIDEO)

Please click on the video above to find out how weather is affecting global commodities. The video talks about how a warm Tropical Atlantic and forecasts for a moderate to strong La Nina suggest rains (not just in October), but likely into November and December as well for key crop areas in Brazil. It has been a devastating last few years for Brazil agriculture with record low water levels. This has been due to climate change, deforestation and other climatic variables.

Even elephants feel the effects of climate change and overpopulation

Even elephants feel the effects of climate change and overpopulation

The article below is mostly excerpted from a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, with a few additional comments by me, Jim Roemer. Climate Change and overpopulation are certainly close to my heart and while this article does not discuss weather forecasting or the commodity markets, it is yet another important sign of how we are destroying our planet. The good thing is, is that China and several other major developing countries in the world, are taking steps to be close to 0% carbon emissions by the year 2050. Hopefully, China and others will remain firm on this commitment, but unless we take more action now, waiting till 2050 may be too late to reverse climate change–Jim Roemer

In recent weeks, a herd of 15 wild elephants on a long, strange trip out of the jungles of far southwestern China have transfixed millions of people across the country.

Millions have tuned in to watch the elephants’ 300-mile journey on television and on internet live streams, or tracked their movements on social media. While enamored with the creatures, some increasingly see the elephants and their journey as a lesson on the perils of nature and a rapidly urbanizing China crashing into one another, especially as development booms.

Along the way, the elephants have broken into villagers’ homes, eaten their food, drank their water and destroyed their crops. All told, the herd has now caused more than 400 separate incidents of damage, worth some $1.1 million, according to China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency.

The elephants, which have gone into rural villages and somewhat larger towns, have shown a continued interest in wooden barrels of alcohol. Last month, one of the baby elephants passed out after imbibing a kind of fermented alcohol, and was only able to rejoin the herd the next day.

Some scientists have hypothesized that the elephants are on the move because their habitat has shrunk while their population has grown.

China’s environmental crisis, the result of decades of rapid industrialization, not only threatens the health and livelihoods of the country’s 1.4 billion people but also the global fight against climate change. As the world’s largest source of greenhouse.

China suffers from notoriously bad air pollution. Its carbon-intensive industries have caused additional environmental challenges, including water scarcity and soil contamination. And, like the rest of the world, China will face increasingly harsh consequences of climate change in the coming decades, including flooding and droughts.

China’s staggering pace of urbanization has also contributed. Urbanization increases energy demands to power new manufacturing and industrial centers, and construction of these centers rely on high energy-consuming products such as cement and steel. Another contributor is the increase in cars on the road: In 2018, people in China owned 240 million vehicles, up from about 27 million in 2004.

Internationally, China is the largest financier of fossil fuel infrastructure.

Climate Change Is Real!  Join In For A live Seminar With Some Of The World’s Leading Experts!

Climate Change Is Real! Join In For A live Seminar With Some Of The World’s Leading Experts!

Record heat and fires burn California again. The historical 2018-2019 Australian drought killed millions of animals and put the Australian agricultural economy in a tail-spin. Melting permafrost in Siberia and Russia that threatens wildlife and rivers. These are just a few of the many “obvious” signs that climate change is getting worse.

Some 90% of all scientists agree that we are on a crash course to a global disaster if actions are not taken immediately. This subject of climate change has become “far too political”, when scientific evidence (just like with COVID-19 and warnings months ago by experts), is overwhelming.

Seal level in St Petersburg Florida

Dr. Robert Corell is an ocean scientist, one of the recipients of the 2007 Noble Peace Prize, and a renowned scientist. Dr. Corell and a friend of mine, Robert Bunting, will be speaking in this all-star panel addressing the topic of Climate Change on Thursday, September 17th. Robert Bunting is the director of the new Sarasota Climate Adaption Center (CAC). He is also a hurricane and climate expert and started the CAC center.

Climate change CEO Sarasota

The CAC will participate in a Climate Event and we would love your virtual attendance! While the CAC is non-partisan, we talk about climate everywhere! Please register below to find out more.

Join us for a Climate Call to Action webinar in support of Margaret Good’s campaign for Congress Thursday, September 17th at 5:30 pm.

Margaret Good Climate Change Webinar

JIm Roemer

Drought, Politics, Climate Change: SE Asia’s Choppy Mekong Water

Drought, Politics, Climate Change: SE Asia’s Choppy Mekong Water

Drought has prevailed from Myanmar through Vietnam for months. With the Mekong River at some of its lowest levels in decades, monsoon rains began in parts of SE Asia in June.

Starting in Tibet, the Mekong winds through six countries: China, Myanmar, Lao PDR, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. 60% of the population along the Lower Mekong make a living from agriculture. Over 70% of the water that is used from the lower reaches of the Mekong is for agricultural irrigation.

The 2020 Drought for Mekong Countries

This year the river’s water has been scarce, making the drought worse for agricultural commodities and life in general. Called the worst in 40 years, this year’s drought comes after the 2018-19 season was marred by drought, low Mekong levels, and a truncated monsoon season.

The Thai Meteorological Department declared that 2020’s rainy season officially began May 15, but expects water for the first two months to be insufficient for farmers. Irrigation water is scarce. The Thai government has started projects to tap groundwater for irrigation and household use.

While the drought led to seawater incursions in Thailand, and saltiness in Bangkok’s drinking water, in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, one of the country’s “rice bowls”, saltwater incursion has reached record levels. Vietnam has directed farmers to switch to other crops from rice in some parts of the Mekong Delta since freshwater is so scarce.

Can Tho Vietnam rice field in drought
Parched Mekong Delta rice field. Source: Creative Commons.

By May, 27 of Thailand’s 77 provinces had been declared disaster zones. The drought has been blamed on El Nino, but this did not explain the extent of low water levels in the Mekong.

Perhaps the country that will be most impacted by drought and low water levels is Cambodia. Its Tonle Sap lake is a unique environmental wonder. In the dry season (October to March) its river provides 50% of the water flow into the Mekong Delta.

At the monsoon’s heights, waters from the Mekong make the Tonle Sap River flow backward, into the lake. Fish caught from the lake make up 70% of the protein intake for Cambodians. In 2019, the fish catch was 80-90% lower than normal. What that catch will be this year is anybody’s guess.

Sugar, Rice, Rubber, Coffee: Mekong Farming Supports Many Global Markets

Weather along the Mekong, and the waters of the river itself, plays a large role in several global commodities markets. Thailand is the world’s largest rubber exporter and the second largest exporter of cane sugar and rice.

Vietnam produces 36% of the world’s robusta crop, more than twice that of its nearest competitor, Brazil. Vietnam also is the third-largest rice exporter and fourth-largest rubber exporter. Myanmar and Cambodia also contribute to the global rubber and rice trade.

Mekong low Cambodia
Farmers use a hose to get water for fields in Cambodia. Source: Khmer Times.

The monsoon waters didn’t come soon enough for Thailand’s sugar cane growers. This month, the Thai cabinet okayed a relief package for the country’s 300,000 sugar cane growers. Thailand’s sugar cane harvest will be about 25% lower than expected, mainly due to drought. Meanwhile, drought caused rubber tapping to decrease, with annual production expected to be down about 5%.

Vietnam has seen up to 30,000 hectares impacted by the drought in the Central Highlands, the country’s largest coffee-producing region. Last year’s drought led to a 14% drop in coffee exports. Saltwater intrusion and low water supplies in the Delta also likely will impact rice harvests. However, the country expects to export more than last year due to existing stocks.

Water Is Traditionally a Shared Resource

What China, which controls the upper Mekong, seeks from the river, however, is not increased agriculture production. It wants electric power. Eleven hydropower dams now operate on the upper Mekong.

Many observers feel that China views the Mekong as a “sovereign” water source, one which they should control since it begins in Tibet. Other Mekong countries have been developing shared plans for its use, with varying degrees of success, since 1957, with the formation of the Mekong River Commission. As part of its Belt and Roads initiative, China started the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation mechanism in 2015. (Lancang is the Chinese name for the Mekong). A key goal of the mechanism was creating a five-year development plan for the river, which included more dams. It also included destroying rapids on the Laos-Cambodia border. This would enable China to ship goods from inland Yunnan all the way to the Pacific.

The current dams meet China’s power needs, but some commentators posit it is holding water back for future power and agriculture needs. A recent study held that China withheld water from the lower Mekong for six months in 2019, even though it had abnormally high rain and snowfall that year. By January this year, normally turbulent stretches of the Mekong were dry in Laos and Thailand.

The lower Mekong region’s current water problems are a combination of climate change, weather, and damming the river. The Lancang-Mekong development plan has been only partially successful. China has agreed to share data on the river with downstream countries, and at least one dam, in Cambodia, has been put on hold. The region will have to wait through the rainy season to see if the river starts flowing again at its normal levels.

Free trial weather wealth water

Are Oil Price Lows and Covid-19 Bringing Famine?

Are Oil Price Lows and Covid-19 Bringing Famine?

Oil’s price drop, changing weather patterns, armed conflicts, and COVID-19 may bring the worst humanitarian crisis since World War II by the end of 2020.

“[W]e could be facing multiple famines of biblical proportions within a short few months,” David Beasley recently told the UN Security Council. Beasley, Executive Director of World Food Programme, predicted a worst-case scenario of famine in about three dozen countries.

Before COVID-19, an estimated 821 million people were classified by the UN and other agencies as food insecure. Another 135 million were on the edge of starvation. Because of the coronavirus, a further 130 million people are predicted to join that 135 million in 2020.

Oil Price Collapse Bashes Petroleum-Based Economies

The fall in oil prices undermines the economies and budgets of many governments, including Venezuela, Nigeria, and Angola. Oil constitutes half of Russia’s exports, while Sudan also is heavily oil dependent.

Petroleum makes up 98.8% of exports in South Sudan. The country, often plagued by armed conflict and currently facing famine, could face more destabilization.

Changing Weather Patterns Already Causing Hunger

In the Horn of Africa, increased rains have brought massive locusts swarms that are destroying potential harvests. Farmers in Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia and Sudan already face field damage. The worst locust outbreak in 70 years, these new pests also threaten agriculture in the Arabian Penninsula, Iran, and Pakistan

Floods have caused food security issues in Africa
Flooding in Somalia. Photo: WFP.

At the same time, several years of increasing drought is bringing hunger to Honduras, Somalia, Zimbabwe and other countries. Combined with a decrease in foreign remittances, increased drought and/or increased flooding have made finding food a challenge for many.

Climate change also may be depressing key nutrients in crops, making malnutrition more likely. Researchers at Stanford University found that zinc and copper is decreasing in crops due to increased carbon dioxide.

Covid-19 Undermines Agriculture Output

COVID-19 is hampering agriculture on both the export and subsistence levels. International supply chains for fertilizers and other inputs have been disrupted. Farmers who are ill cannot work their fields effectively.

Simultaneously, COVID-19 is handicapping the locust fight in countries like Ethiopia, Uganda and Sudan. With lockdowns, farmers and workers are afraid to go to their fields. Pesticides, caught in supply chain tangles, are harder to find.

Concerns over Markets, Prices, and Impacts

The responses by markets and countries to the various crises may also have an impact on famine in the coming months. Impositions of export bans and tarrifs impact the global food supply chain.

Viet Nam temporarily restricted rice exports, only recently eased. Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter, imposed restrictions on wheat exports, while Khazakstan banned all exports of buckwheat and potatoes.  

“The worst that can happen is that governments restrict the flow of food,” Maximo Torero, the chief economist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), said to the Guardian newspaper

Export restrictions may limit food security.
Viet Nam briefly limited rice exports. Photo: WFP.

At the same time, the FAO director of emergency operations, Dominique Burgeon, warned of potential price spikes in food. These lead to unrest in the Middle East and North Africa in 2007 and 2008.

“This is a matter of international solidarity, and humanity, but also a matter of global security…” Burgeon old the paper.

Earth Day: Not a Hippie Joke Any More

Earth Day: Not a Hippie Joke Any More

The news couldn’t be clearer this Earth Day. Fixing environmental issues can’t wait.

How Did Earth Day Start?

Democratic Senator Gayord Nelson and Representative Pete McCloskey, a conservative Republican, founded Earth Day. Outwardly opposite, both men loved the outdoors. Each was against the Viet Nam war, but McCloskey had two Purple Hearts from his marine service.

They hired a young environmental activist, Dennis Hayes, to make Earth Day a nationwide event.

Dennis Hayes at the Environmental Teach-in. Credit: Adirondack Council.

Hayes recruited nationwide for 85 other organizers, who built on a growing public consciousness about air and water pollution. They also tapped the enthusiasm and skills of the anti-Vietnam War movement.

On April 20, 1970, around 20 million Americans rallied, demonstrated, and attended Earth Day teach-ins. At the time, this was about 10% of the country’s population.

Earth Day’s First Achievements

Nixon planted a tree at the White House for Earth Day.
Even President Nixon and his wife Pat planted a tree for the first Earth Day. Credit: White House Photo Office.

President Richard Nixon already saw political gain in the environmental movement. On New Years Day, he had signed the National Environmental Protection Act. By December, the President had established the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). At the end of his presidency, Nixon was putting the environment on his diplomatic agenda and including it in NATO talks.

The Ford and Carter administrations also pushed forward in passing environmental legislation, and the 1970s saw immense progress at both the federal and state levels. December 1970’s Clean Air Act mandated that the EPA set standards for air quality, while 1972’s Water Pollution Control Act addressed wastewater. Because of these laws and others like the Endangered Species Act, states started environmental oversight agencies.

Earth Day’s Ongoing Legacy

Earth Day quickly became a global event, and it sparked other environmental efforts. Greenpeace, National Resource Defense Council, and other groups began soon after. They joined efforts with older environmental organizations like World Wide Fund for Nature to develop more co-ordinated and effective advocacy.

Since that first Earth Day, innumerable individuals and groups have helped push environmental issues forward. The Kyoto Protocol, The Paris Climate Accords, and the United Nations Framework on Climate Change are all the result. As the list at the top of this post shows, though, there is far more to do.