Several times a year, we offer farmers and commodity traders on six continents a free issue of WeatherWealth: The only global commodity weather newsletter that focuses strictly on the weather with specific trading ideas in commodity options, futures, and ETFs.
Some of our best calls over the last two years were predicting mostly big global crops for grains and the resulting bear markets. The stronger dollar and worries over demand from China have also impacted prices adversely. La Niña did not form last summer, as I predicted it wouldn’t. This helped set the stage for a record corn and soybean crop. But, what about now?
Will a La Nada or La Niña be present when we move into 2025?Could a bull market in grains eventually form?
The biggest bull weather markets over the last 2 years have been in cocoa and coffee brought on by Climate Change, deforestation, and a previous El Niño.
In the last three winters, a trader could have sold natural gas in December and potentially gain at least 20-35% on his/her money by March. Almost every winter of the last 5 years has been warmer than normal. What about now?
Our latest newsletter (download on top of the page) discusses the following:
1) The difference between an El Niño neutral (La Nada) and La Niña
2) How winter weather could be affected by both
3) What are the MJO index, and a negative PDO index?
4) How record-warm global temperatures could offset a potential cold signal for U.S. natural gas heating demand areas
5) What will it take for the Midwest grain areas and Plains wheat to have hot, dry weather next summer?
6) Why soybean prices may remain in a downward trend
7) How Climate Change has caused an explosion in cocoa prices
8) A discussion of the volatile coffee market and the impact of recent drought stress in Brazil
9) Australian crop weather
10) La Niña and a look at historical sugar prices
11) Trading ideas in commodities, and…
12) …Much more
Enjoy,
T H A N K S F O R Y O U R I N T E R E S T I N C O M M O D I T Y W E A T H E R !!!
Jim Roemer’s video (above) addresses these issues:
Following our bearish attitude in grains all summer long, and second guessing hot-dry Midwest weather models, why La Niña may finally arrive.
Harvest pressure could still cap rallies (later) in corn and soybeans, but growing weather problems for wheat could set the stage for a longer-term bull market. Could La Niña induce corn and soybean markets to rally, later?
How deforestation, La Niña and climate change are contributing to a severe drought in northern Brazil. Coffee futures, OJ and possibly sugar will be reacting to any weather forecast updates.
Why a record positive NAO summer could portend a warm early winter for the natural gas market.
If you were following our advice since summer, you know that we predicted (back in late June and early July), $9.50 soybeans and $3.80-$3.90 corn prices. What about now? How high could coffee prices go? What will be our trading ideas in natural gas and all Ag commodities? Subscribe to a 2 week free trial period to WeatherWealth (you can cancel at any time).
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
by Jim Roemer – Meteorologist – Commodity Trading Advisor – Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict – Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter
Weekend Report – August 23-25, 2024
To View Video > > > > > PLEASE CLICK BELOW
In this video, I talk about:
Why La Niña did not form this summer and how I predicted the bear market in grains last June
BestWeather Spiders: What are they and how to use them to trade everything from soybeans to coffee
Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum is finally turning negative: How this resulted in some short-term heat and dryness in parts of the Midwest grain belt. Will it last?
Northern Brazil’s drought and how it may affect OJ, sugar, and coffee production and prices.
West African dry weather is helping the cocoa market again. What’s in store, weatherwise?
See how we predicted $9.50 soybean prices and sub $4.00 corn, 2-3 months ago, what’s ahead for soft commodities, and more. You can also receive a 2-week free trial period
Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
Trading futures and options involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
On the date of publication, Jim Roemer did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Most recently, since June,we’ve stated our opinion that “fading” ALL computer models that suggested La Niña would form later this summer. In addition, all these summer grain market bulls “completely missed the boat” as our clients were advised about a potential collapse in corn and soybeans, as early as mid June on perfect summer corn belt weather!
How did we do that? First of all … standard GFS and European models are “free to the public.” You get what you pay for: erroneous models which often cannot forecast the weather accurately more than a few days in advance.
My 40-year experience in “second-guessing” computer models and my understanding of market psychology comprise The Key.
We also offer our in-house long-range weather software that all subscribers can access. It is called ClimatePredict (www.climatepredict.com).
It performs analyses of the history and behavior of teleconnections and correlates agricultural commodity crop growing areas, while incorporating:
Arctic Sea Ice (or lack thereof);
Better prediction of El Niño or La Niña;
Ocean temperatures thousands of miles away,
Dozens of other phenomena, etc
Jim Roemer’s initial objective, back in June of $9.50 soybeans (from $11) and sub $4.00 corn, helped farmers hedge their production weeks ago and aided traders in adopting various futures and options strategies. In only a couple of months, one trade alone (just in grains) would have paid for my newsletter for several years.
We are finally seeing the signs of potentially the first weather scare of the summer for some hot-dry weather. Is it time to buy corn and soybeans? Are the markets oversold?
This installment, early last week, discussed the following:
1) Fading computer models all summer, predicting record corn and soybean yields for Midwest grain farmers and the bear market (back in June). Will prices for soybeans reach $9?
2) Best Weather Spiders: How to use them to trade Ag and natural gas commodities
3) Why the next big bull market may be in coffeeas extreme drought remains in Brazil & how recent coffee market volatility based on varying weather forecasts from the recent very light Brazil frost
4) Why our bearish outlook in sugar prices from 21 cents predicting a great Indian Monsoon has now been scaled back
5) Climate Predict: BestWeather’s in-house weather and crop production model for global commodities (free with an annual subscription to WeatherWealth)
6) Trade ideas from grains to soft commodities and natural gas
Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
Trading futures and options involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
This video below talks about the following from July 5th:
How Hurricane Beryl may affect commodity markets (this is old news now)
Why it has been coffee most adversely affected by a warming planet
The potential for a bull market in grains later? Possibly, but our overall bias for weeks has been “against the crowd” predicting doom and gloom for U.S. grain crops. For now, the delay of La Niña has prevented any major widespread weather problems for corn and soybeans, other than a few isolated areas
Why traders were wrong being bullish natural gas over $3.00 a few weeks ago
Click above and also feel free to join my YouTube channel
(note: Weather maps and BestWeather spider are by Jim Roemer and added to this article by BestWeather, Inc.)
Coffee futures rallied last month, with the benchmark robusta variety climbing to a record and prices for arabica at their highest since 2022. But analysts suggest that prices for both have topped out for the year as weather conditions in Vietnam look to improve.
Robusta coffee futures peaked in April and have been selling off since, said Jake Hanley, managing director and senior portfolio specialist at Teucrium.
Drought in Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta coffee grower, is curtailing production, “driving local prices higher, incentivizing farmers to hold on to their beans rather than sell them,” he told MarketWatch. He cited a Bloomberg report that said Vietnamese robusta coffee farmers have failed to deliver up to 200,000 metric tons of beans under contract.
The coffee market is a “weather market and volatility should be expected,” said Hanley, but there is talk that drought conditions in the Central Highlands in Vietnam will let up by the end of this month, he said.
On the ICE Futures Europe exchange, the most-active July contract for robusta coffee D00, +0.09%DN24, +0.82% hit a record intraday high at $4,575 per metric ton on April 25, based on data going back to 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Based on Wednesday’s intraday trading, it was around 3.3% lower for the week, but has climbed 12.4% year to date.Robusta coffee prices have dropped from a record highSource: FactSet
Robusta and arabica are the two most common types of coffee beans produced and sold, according to Bean & Bean Coffee Roasters. Robusta coffee makes up 40% of global coffee production is commonly used to make instant coffee, and is cheaper to produce, while arabica makes up about 60% of global coffee production and requires more energy and resources to grow.
The rise in robusta coffee prices to all-time highs “inadvertently” helped Arabica “rally more than it should have,” said James Roemer, the publisher of the WeatherWealth newsletter.
Since then, there have been forecasts for rain in Vietnam — that, along with the stronger U.S. dollar and record long speculative position in coffee, “caused a major washout” for prices, he said.
Looking ahead, without a frost scare in Brazil, prices for arabica could trend to the $1.50 to $1.70 area come July or August, said Roemer.
For robusta, following expected rains over the next two weeks, the crops in Vietnam could still be hit by dryness this summer as weak El Niño conditions exist, he said. Most forecasters are calling for La Niña conditions, which could bring heavy rainfall, but he does not expect that until after September.
Meanwhile, Roemer said Chinese demand has not been a factor in coffee’s rise this year, with demand having been weak against the backdrop of a record-warm global winter.
Coffee is technically weak, Roemer said, and the market will “need to see the dryness return in June and July in Vietnam and/or a Brazil freeze scare to see a new bull market again.”
Jim Roemer’s Weather Spider featured for grains, soft and natural gas commodities each week in his WeatherWealth newsletter
HELPING YOU MAKE THE BEST INVESTMENT DECISIONS BASED ON THE WEATHER
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