The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an eastward-propagating, large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern observed in the tropics, particularly over the Indian and Pacific Oceans. It is characterized by alternating phases of enhanced and suppressed convection. The MJO plays a crucial role in modulating tropical weather and influencing the development of tropical cyclones. It is identified through various meteorological parameters, including cloudiness, winds, and precipitation anomalies, and its activity is monitored using different indices, such as the Real-time Multivariate MJO Index (RMM) or Wheeler-Hendon Phase Diagram.
It is also ultra important for commodity and crop water along the equator–particularly for West African cocoa and northern Brazil soybeans, sugar, and coffee crops. The MJO will be going into a drier phase for West Africa. This means, finally, some improved dry weather for the West African main crop cocoa harvest. It will then go into a wetter phase for northern Brazil soybeans and coffee bringing some relief to the recent drought by later December.
Hence, after a major bull market in cocoa prices has occurred, there may have to be some added El Niño weather-related disruption, later this winter or spring for cocoa prices to make new highs.
Think of the MJO as a globe-trotting storyteller in meteorology. This index tracks a pulse of stormy weather as it travels across the tropical regions near the equator. It’s like a weather adventure, influencing rainfall and storminess along its journey. Sometimes it brings rain, sometimes calmness, and it loops around the Earth, affecting weather patterns in far-reaching places. So, when meteorologists mention the MJO, they’re essentially talking about this fascinating traveler-shaping weather tale around the world.
Prediction next two weeks of the MJO movement