1) What is the Western Pacific Warm Pool and why it has delayed La Niña
2) How the 2022 Tonga volcanoes may have contributed to the western Pacific warming
3) How our computer program www.climatepredict.com forecasted a warm autumn that has pressured natural gas prices
(available to subscribers to our newsletter WeatherWealth)
4) An historical look at why natural gas prices have fallen in four out of the last five consecutive autumn-to-early-winter periods.
Given the record warm oceans and Gulf of Mexico, a tropical storm or hurricane is not out of the realm of possibilities for November 7th-8th.
Sign up for a two-week free trial period to WeatherWealth and you can see our recent trading strategies for coffee, sugar, grains, and more and how to potentially trade these markets in the future.
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
On the date of publication, Jim Roemer did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The headlines of our WeatherWealth newsletter (earlier this week) show what was covered in a detailed article. It discusses weather forecasting techniques and trading ideas for many commodities affected by the recent drought. You can go down to the bottom of this report and receive this entire free issue.
Over the past four years, we have been helping farmers, commodity traders, and ETF investors get a big “jump” on markets from soybeans to coffee natural gas, and many other markets. Second-guessing the standard (= FREE) weather models that everyone and their dog look at, is our specialty, as well as developing trading strategies with our 80 years of combined experience, and analysis of trading psychology of weather-driven markets.
For example, here was our advice (“Spider” from this past July) to clients who potentially made at least $1.00/bushel, by being short soybeans (and 50¢ cents in corn), on bogus weather forecasts by other firms for a drought in the Midwest.
Every few months, we offer Barcharts readers one FREE issue.
BestWeather Spider from previous WEATHERWEALTH NEWSLETTER this past summer
Currently, we have been watching Brazil’s weather very closely for clients. Notice the extreme dryness that previously helped coffee, sugar, and soybeans rally. A week ago, we began forecasting a potential “major change” in the South American weather pattern beginning next week.
Different flavors of La Niña have varying effects on South American summer weather.
Deforestation and the recent El Niño have also been a factor. One can see from my weather program below how weak vs strong La Niña events affect South American weather in October. The change in rain forecasts I began seeing for Brazil a week ago has resulted in the top of the coffee market and will also affect soybean, sugar, and OJ trading in the weeks ahead.
Russia Declares Disaster for Several Key Wheat-Producing Areas Due to Drought
Severe drought conditions in Russia in the last few months have helped wheat prices rally off their lows. What Russia does with exports and the global demand situation will be just as important as rainfall patterns both for Australian and U.S. Plains wheat in the coming months.
In the meantime, the NAO index (blocks over Greenland) has been the most positive on record this summer. This helped to bring the heat and dryness to parts of eastern Europe and western Russia.
My in in-house weather program, below, illustrates how the NAO index will go negative into the first half of October. This should bring some temporary relief from the extreme drought conditions in western Russia and may (or, may not) have some impact on the wheat market.
ClimatePredict is available for free to any WeatherWealth subscriber and covers all ag markets around the world and natural gas, as well.
So… what other weather forecast techniques are we using to predict crop prospects for South American corn and soybeans, potential globalweather problems for wheat and also trading ideas for coffee, sugar, and more?
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
Jim Roemer’s video (above) addresses these issues:
Following our bearish attitude in grains all summer long, and second guessing hot-dry Midwest weather models, why La Niña may finally arrive.
Harvest pressure could still cap rallies (later) in corn and soybeans, but growing weather problems for wheat could set the stage for a longer-term bull market. Could La Niña induce corn and soybean markets to rally, later?
How deforestation, La Niña and climate change are contributing to a severe drought in northern Brazil. Coffee futures, OJ and possibly sugar will be reacting to any weather forecast updates.
Why a record positive NAO summer could portend a warm early winter for the natural gas market.
If you were following our advice since summer, you know that we predicted (back in late June and early July), $9.50 soybeans and $3.80-$3.90 corn prices. What about now? How high could coffee prices go? What will be our trading ideas in natural gas and all Ag commodities? Subscribe to a 2 week free trial period to WeatherWealth (you can cancel at any time).
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
By Jim Roemer – Meteorologist – Commodity Trading Advisor – Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict – Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter
MidWeek Report – August 28, 2024
The short answer to whether or not we see a major bull market in natural gas due to a category 4-5 hurricane in the Gulf is NO… At least for now and the next few weeks. However, natural gas prices are likely oversold with U.S. production coming down later on.
Our WeatherWealth newsletter has advised energy traders that huge U.S. supplies, a recent bearish EIA due to cool weather last week, and our prediction that La Niña would be delayed, was NOT a bullish aspect for the natural gas market. At these prices, however, it is a bit too risky to become that aggressive and go short the market. Remember, however, nothing it too cheap or expensive in commodities!
Something is brewing in the tropics, but due to something we call the MJO index, combined with African dust, any major Gulf hurricane is not likely for now.
.
Natural gas prices have collapsed more than 30¢ since we suggested, two weeks ago, that prices would not get above the chart line shown above.
What to do now in natural gas? Could we have a major hurricane later this fall? What about winter and how we out-forecast standard weather models that too many people believe?
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
Trading futures and options involve a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
by Jim Roemer – Meteorologist – Commodity Trading Advisor – Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict – Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter
Weekend Report – August 23-25, 2024
To View Video > > > > > PLEASE CLICK BELOW
In this video, I talk about:
Why La Niña did not form this summer and how I predicted the bear market in grains last June
BestWeather Spiders: What are they and how to use them to trade everything from soybeans to coffee
Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum is finally turning negative: How this resulted in some short-term heat and dryness in parts of the Midwest grain belt. Will it last?
Northern Brazil’s drought and how it may affect OJ, sugar, and coffee production and prices.
West African dry weather is helping the cocoa market again. What’s in store, weatherwise?
See how we predicted $9.50 soybean prices and sub $4.00 corn, 2-3 months ago, what’s ahead for soft commodities, and more. You can also receive a 2-week free trial period
Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
Trading futures and options involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
On the date of publication, Jim Roemer did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
Most recently, since June,we’ve stated our opinion that “fading” ALL computer models that suggested La Niña would form later this summer. In addition, all these summer grain market bulls “completely missed the boat” as our clients were advised about a potential collapse in corn and soybeans, as early as mid June on perfect summer corn belt weather!
How did we do that? First of all … standard GFS and European models are “free to the public.” You get what you pay for: erroneous models which often cannot forecast the weather accurately more than a few days in advance.
My 40-year experience in “second-guessing” computer models and my understanding of market psychology comprise The Key.
We also offer our in-house long-range weather software that all subscribers can access. It is called ClimatePredict (www.climatepredict.com).
It performs analyses of the history and behavior of teleconnections and correlates agricultural commodity crop growing areas, while incorporating:
Arctic Sea Ice (or lack thereof);
Better prediction of El Niño or La Niña;
Ocean temperatures thousands of miles away,
Dozens of other phenomena, etc
Jim Roemer’s initial objective, back in June of $9.50 soybeans (from $11) and sub $4.00 corn, helped farmers hedge their production weeks ago and aided traders in adopting various futures and options strategies. In only a couple of months, one trade alone (just in grains) would have paid for my newsletter for several years.
We are finally seeing the signs of potentially the first weather scare of the summer for some hot-dry weather. Is it time to buy corn and soybeans? Are the markets oversold?
This installment, early last week, discussed the following:
1) Fading computer models all summer, predicting record corn and soybean yields for Midwest grain farmers and the bear market (back in June). Will prices for soybeans reach $9?
2) Best Weather Spiders: How to use them to trade Ag and natural gas commodities
3) Why the next big bull market may be in coffeeas extreme drought remains in Brazil & how recent coffee market volatility based on varying weather forecasts from the recent very light Brazil frost
4) Why our bearish outlook in sugar prices from 21 cents predicting a great Indian Monsoon has now been scaled back
5) Climate Predict: BestWeather’s in-house weather and crop production model for global commodities (free with an annual subscription to WeatherWealth)
6) Trade ideas from grains to soft commodities and natural gas
Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
Trading futures and options involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
HELPING YOU MAKE THE BEST INVESTMENT DECISIONS BASED ON THE WEATHER
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