What is the BestWeather Spider & How to use it to trade commodities?

What is the BestWeather Spider & How to use it to trade commodities?

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The BestWeather Spider is considered a reliable tool for commodity traders because it integrates advanced weather forecasting (including factors like El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole) with market analysis to anticipate how weather events will impact commodity prices. 

Screenshot

Jim Roemer’s approach uses both meteorological data and market fundamentals, providing actionable insights that help traders and farmers make informed decisions in volatile markets. The Spider’s recommendations are regularly updated in the WeatherWealth newsletter, which further enhances its reliability through continuous analysis and expert commentary.

Jim Roemer’s BestWeather Commodity Spider is a proprietary tool that combines weather analysis, technical analysis, and other market fundamentals to help commodity traders anticipate price movements in markets like grains, energy, and soft commodities. The Spider provides actionable insights by showing how weather patterns and forecasts may impact specific commodities, giving both experienced and novice traders an edge in making informed trading decisions. It is part of the broader suite of services offered by Best Weather Inc., which includes newsletters and reports with trade recommendations based on meteorological data and market analysis.

Jim Roemer’s BestWeather Commodity Spider predicts market moves by integrating several key factors:

  • Weather analysis: It assesses global weather patterns—such as El Niño, La Niña, droughts, and temperature anomalies—that can impact crop yields and energy demand
  • Technical analysis: The Spider incorporates chart patterns and market signals to identify trends or reversals in commodity prices.
  • Market fundamentals: It evaluates supply and demand factors, currency movements, and geopolitical events that influence commodity markets
  • Market psychology: The tool interprets trader sentiment and behavioral patterns to anticipate potential market reactions.

By combining these elements, the Spider provides actionable insights and trade ideas for commodities like grains, energy, coffee, and cocoa, helping traders anticipate and respond to market shifts

What is the Indian Ocean Dipole? & How does it impact crops and global commodity markets?

What is the Indian Ocean Dipole? & How does it impact crops and global commodity markets?

What is the Indian Ocean Dipole?

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a climate phenomenon affecting the Indian Ocean. During a positive phase, warmth is pushed to the Western part of that body of water, while cold deep waters are brought up to the surface in the eastern end of the Indian Ocean. This pattern is reversed during the negative phase of the IOD. It is also known as the Indian Niño, as it draws similarity with the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

What are we looking at?

The plot tracks the conditions in the Indian Ocean, showing the phase of the IOD both now and in the past. Right now we are in a negative phase.

When the value of the time series is positive (red shading), the warm phase of the IOD is present with higher sea level in the western Indian Ocean and lower sea level in the eastern Indian Ocean.

When the value is negative (blue shading on graph above), the cool phase of the IOD is present with lower sea level in the western Indian Ocean and higher sea level in the eastern Indian Ocean. This is what we have today.

Why is it important in commodity trading?

The IOD influences tropical commodities in Africa, Australia and Southeast Asia the most.

During the positive phase of the IOD, the high temperatures along the coast of Africa cause heavy rains and droughts in Australia.

During a negative phase the high temperatures and rainfall patterns are reversed. The sea-level changes associated with the IOD can also lead to increased threats of coastal flooding and associated impacts. However, for west Africa, a negative IOD phase coupled with an El Niño can bring bull markets for cocoa with dry spring and summers often occurring affecting the main crops in Ivory Coast and Ghana.

Presently, we have an El Niño neutral situation and a developing negative Indian Dipole. Hence, the situation is a bit confusing, but could portend a decent (not great) main cocoa crop and possibly take the steam out of the recent two year bull market.

Source: Jim Roemer (Climatepredict software): “If there was an El Niñno in 2025, which there is not, drier weather and a potential bull market would occur this summer

My cocoa Spider has been bullish recently on a weaker dollar and a poor mid-crop hitting the market. These Spiders appear in my WeatherWealth newsletter (each week) to help grain farmers and traders in multiple markets around the world. Special 70% discounts to WeatherWealth are available for small traders and farmers after your free trial.

The negative phase of the IOD brings about the opposite conditions of a positive IOD, with warmer water and greater precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean, and cooler and drier conditions in the west.

The IOD also affects the strength of monsoons over the Indian subcontinent. This is what we have presently: A negative Indian Ocean Dipole, whose effects should be for a general good monsoon in India that tends to be bearish commodities such as sugar.

The impact of monsoons on Indian farmers

A majority of India’s GDP is dependent on the growth and production of agriculture. India is an agrarian nation, with more than 50% of the population earning their livelihood in agriculture.

The monsoon is the most important season for farmers in this country. A majority of Indian agricultural land is watered by the southwest monsoon. Field crops such as sugar, cotton, wheat, rice, and legumes are staple foods in India. They require strong rainfall in order to grow.

Does the Indian Monsoon affect summer corn belt weather?

There is only a little evidence that the Indian monsoon has a significant or consistent effect on Midwest Corn Belt weather. The Midwest’s weather and crop yields are primarily influenced by local factors such as precipitation recycling, land use, and groundwater, as well as larger-scale patterns like El Niño and La Niña. While global weather systems can sometimes interact, and changes in major monsoon systems may have indirect or minor effects on global atmospheric circulation, any direct linkage between the Indian monsoon and Midwest Corn Belt weather is not established in the search results.

You can see on my ClimatePredict program below (available to subscribers to WeatherWealth newsletter), there is a slight (-.31) correlation of the Indian Dipole and July corn belt rainfall.

In other words, a negative IOD, which is negatively correlated, suggests a slight chance for above normal corn belt rains (two negatives = a positive value). Notice, however, the correlation is much higher with El Niño/La Niña (+1.01). An El Niño (warm ocean signal) is positively correlated with corn belt rain. In other words wet, while La Niña is the opposite– a dry bullish signal like 2011 and 2012. Right now, we have mixed “El Niño neutral” conditions.

July temperature tends to to be hotter than normal for the Midwest corn belt with a negative IOD. Here too, the correlation is much weaker with the IOD than El Niño/La Niña and other teleconnections

Conclusion:

It promises to be another wild summer for the grain market, as the potential for hot summer weather will increase market volatility. The Indian Ocean Dipole being negative and an “El Niño neutral” event does suggest that most (not all) of the Midwest grain belt should have decent summer rains.

With respect to soft commodities, potential crop problems may continue for parts of West African cocoa, while Robusta coffee and sugar crops recover in Southeast Asia. This could keep these two commodities in a more longer term bear market. Of course, the behavior of the Brazilian Real, US dollar and crops in various locations will also play a role.

In Living Color: Images Explain the “El Niño Neutral” Impact on Global Crops & Commodity Markets

In Living Color: Images Explain the “El Niño Neutral” Impact on Global Crops & Commodity Markets

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by Jim Roemer – Meteorologist – Commodity Trading Advisor – Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict – Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter 

Scott Mathews, Editor

  • Weekend Report – May 9-11, 2025
  • Source: Screenshot by Climate Predict LLC – superimposed comments and markers by BestWeather – insert of Pacific Walker Circulation image by NOAA

While the grain futures have been mostly in a bear market, even with a weaker dollar, commodities from gold to cocoa and coffee continue in bull trends. Canola prices have really been perking up.

Potentially, there is a global weather problem as the drought in China is beginning to affect some crops in parts of southern Australia. 

Below, I discuss how weather and the El Niño neutral stage (neither El Niño or La Niña) is affecting every commodity from wheat to ideal Midwest corn belt weather, previous crop problems in West African cocoa and why global sugar weather is improving.  How about natural gas and a possible hot summer?

As a WeatherWealth newsletter subscriber, not only do you receive trading ideas, but you also see much more accurate weather information as we “second guess” standard weather models by looking at these 28 global weather teleconnections for all Ag and natural gas commodities.

—Enjoy Jim Roemer

Source: map by USDA

–  commentary and indicator arrows added by BestWeather

Source: price graph by Barchart.com

– indicator arrow and superimposed wording by BestWeather

  • Source:  screenshot by Climate Predict LLC
  • Source: screenshot by Climate Predict LLC with comments and indicator arrows superimposed by BestWeather
  • Source: map by Agri-Food Canada (a national information service)
  • Source: maps by stormvistawxmodels.com – used by permission- superimposed comment and indicator arrow by BestWeather

Source: map by WeatherBELL – used by permission

Sources: three screenshots above by Climate Predict LLC

– superimposed comments and indicator arrows by BestWeather

– antarctic polar projection map insert by NOAA, with superimposed markers by BestWeather

  • Source: maps by USDA, with indicator arrow superimposed by BestWeather
  • Source: map by WeatherBELL – used by permission
  • Source: maps by NOAA with superimposed labels and comments by BestWeather
  • Source: map by NOAA with superimposed arrow indicator by BestWeather
  • Sources: seasonality table by MRCI (used by permission), with superimposed elements by BestWeather- Map by stormvistawxmodels.com – used by permission – comments and indicators by BestWeather
  • Source: BestWeather Spider – royalty free natural gas flair photo by pexels.com 

https://www.bestweatherinc.com/new-membership-options/

  • Artwork created via AI software DALL-E 3 and is the property of BestWeather 

Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!!!

Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict LLC, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he commands a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry. 

This article contains syndicated content. We have not reviewed, approved, or endorsed the content, and may receive compensation for placement of the content on this site. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

Riding out hurricane Milton here in Sarasota, Florida

Riding out hurricane Milton here in Sarasota, Florida

click on video below of renowned meteorologist and commodity investing analyst Jim Roemer riding out the hurricane in Sarasota.

Windows being blown out of building and trees down. However, the situation for this area could have been a lot worse if Milton did not weaken at landfall. Though NOAA and others are saying it landed as a CAT 3 hurricane, sustained winds of around 80-90 MPH with gusts to 100 or so, was really a strong Cat 2. A big difference, though certainly many communities around Tampa, etc. had severe flooding. Tornadoes were the biggest threat in Florida (a record number)

FREE WEATHER WEALTH ISSUE: The bear market in grains, Brazil coffee drought & commodity trading ideas”

FREE WEATHER WEALTH ISSUE: The bear market in grains, Brazil coffee drought & commodity trading ideas”

Most recently, since June, we’ve stated our opinion that “fading” ALL computer models that suggested La Niña would form later this summer. In addition, all these summer grain market bulls “completely missed the boat” as our clients were advised about a potential collapse in corn and soybeans, as early as mid June on perfect summer corn belt weather!

How did we do that? First of all … standard GFS and European models are “free to the public.” You get what you pay for: erroneous models which often cannot forecast the weather accurately more than a few days in advance. 


My 40-year experience in “second-guessing” computer models and my understanding of market psychology comprise The Key

We also offer our in-house long-range weather software that all subscribers can access. It is called ClimatePredict (www.climatepredict.com). 

It performs analyses of the history and behavior of teleconnections and correlates agricultural commodity crop growing areas, while incorporating:

  • Arctic Sea Ice (or lack thereof);
  • Better prediction of El Niño or La Niña;
  • Ocean temperatures thousands of miles away,
  • Dozens of other phenomena, etc


Jim Roemer’s initial objective, back in June of $9.50 soybeans (from $11) and sub $4.00 corn, helped farmers hedge their production weeks ago and aided traders in adopting various futures and options strategies. In only a couple of months, one trade alone (just in grains) would have paid for my newsletter for several years. 

We are finally seeing the signs of potentially the first weather scare of the summer for some hot-dry weather. Is it time to buy corn and soybeans? Are the markets oversold?


Check out this complimentary issue of WeatherWealth. https://www.bestweatherinc.com/weather-wealth-sample/

This installment, early last week, discussed the following:
  

1) Fading computer models all summer, predicting record corn and soybean yields for Midwest grain farmers and the bear market (back in June). Will prices for soybeans reach $9?


2) Best Weather Spiders: How to use them to trade Ag and natural gas commodities


3) Why the next big bull market may be in coffee as extreme drought remains in Brazil & how recent coffee market volatility based on varying weather forecasts from the recent very light Brazil frost


4) Why our bearish outlook in sugar prices from 21 cents predicting a great Indian Monsoon has now been scaled back 


5) Climate Predict: BestWeather’s in-house weather and crop production model for global commodities (free with an annual subscription to WeatherWealth)


6) Trade ideas from grains to soft commodities and natural gas

Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!

Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team 

Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.

Trading futures and options involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.