Drought Easing Rains To  Hit Australia, But Animal Extinction Crisis From Wildfires

Drought Easing Rains To Hit Australia, But Animal Extinction Crisis From Wildfires

Over the last two years the combination of an occasional weak El Nino signal in the western Pacific, combined with CLIMATE CHANGE and the warming oceans have been a partial factor in the historical droughts and forest fires that have threatened millions of animals in Australia and lowered crops, such as wheat and cotton, for the 2nd straight years. Drought are not unusual in Australia, but the intensity of the persistent heat and dangers to wildlife, are.

Ocean temperatures are warming over Indonesia where drought has also persisted and threatened crops there, as well. It is a terrible, depressing scene in Australia. One that brings constant tears to my eyes. However, the slowly decaying positive Indian Dipole, combined with the MJO could finally offer some relief in the next week or so.

One of the most important teleconnections that I look at to forecast weather for tropical commodities, is the Indian Dipole.

The index has been in the positive phase, again, also responsible for droughts and record heat in Australia. However, my long range weather forecast program CLIMATEPREDICT, shows how, historically, whenever there is extreme heat with a positive IOD and El Nino signal in the western Pacific, there tends to be a return to normal to above normal rainfall later in January and February in southern and eastern Australia.

January of 1973 was one year with a positive Indian Dipole and an even stronger El Nino signal than we have today.

While only one case, in 1973 follow a hot month for Australia, the Indian Dipole weakened and it turned quite wet as CLIMATEPREDICT shows below for many similar cases. Again, the situation this year is much more dire than 1973 or any other year for that matter. I believe this severity is at least partly related to CLIMATE CHANGE and the warming oceans.

Depending on the Indian Dipole and if the western Pacific and weak El Nino signal weakens (as some models suggest), this will have major global impacts on many commodities in the months ahead from wheat to cocoa, coffee and sugar with potential positive impacts to production in 2020.

Jim Roemer

How Climate change is hurting Central American and Indonesia crops and causing mass migration

How Climate change is hurting Central American and Indonesia crops and causing mass migration

First of all, I recommend that all of you sign up here to receive a few free reports with regard to my views about weather and commodities. Stay tuned for a subscription service I will offering in 2020–Jim Roemer

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The WMO argues that sea levels are rising ever faster, ice is melting and “once in a century” heatwaves and floods are now becoming more regular occurrences.

Millions of people were forced from their homes as a result of extreme events such as cyclones, hurricanes and flooding.

WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas: “If we do not take urgent climate action now, then we are heading for a temperature increase of more than 3C by the end of the century, with ever more harmful impacts on human well-being.

The WMO says the warming experienced over the past decade is taking its toll on the natural world. The ice is melting at both poles and sea level rise has accelerated since the start of satellite measurements in 1993. 

2019 WAS AGAIN THE WARMEST YEAR EVER

Much of the heat generated by greenhouse gas emissions is going into the oceans, says the WMO. The waters are more acidic as a result and marine heat waves are becoming more common.

As well as hurting nature, the increased heat is also affecting humans, with heat waves posing a particular risk to the elderly.

While El Nino, a positive Indian Dipole (cool ocean temps over Indonesia and warm ocean waters east of Africa), have exacerbated the drought situation in these and other countries, I strongly believe that the warming oceans and climate change is at least as important. Here is a very disturbing video here about the continuous droughts in Honduras.

One key reason why thousands of farmers and citizens are trying to migrate to America, is at least in part due to Climate Change as people look for a better life.

With respect to commodities, one of the reasons for the rally in coffee futures recently, are expectations for lower global supplies and higher demand. After a major bear market in coffee, in part due to the low Brazil Real, crop prospects are coming down in parts of Central America and Indonesia, in part from Climate Change. With respect to Brazil, an easing in a mini drought is a blessing for grain and coffee farmers in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerias, at least for now.

Rainfall the last 6 months has been below normal in Indonesia threatening crops and causing fires. In Australia, there has been 2 years of back to back droughts. This will cause more irrigation problems for crops like cotton and has reduced wheat crops for the 2nd straight year.

CO2 reach highest levels in recorded history as Indonesia, Syria drought grows

CO2 reach highest levels in recorded history as Indonesia, Syria drought grows

I cannot stand how the global warming debate has become so politicized over the years and that the Trump administration and millions of people around the world, “still do not see the hand writing on the wall.” This is getting beyond ridiculous. While one cannot blame every hurricane, drought or flood on Climate Change, there is no question in my mind that the intensities of hurricanes are getting stronger and that droughts and extreme weather more frequent.

I also disagree with many so called “solar cycle”theorists that point to extreme weather and consistent, colder, consistent winters due to record low solar cycles coming up.

Record low sea ice, global warming and weak El Nino Modoki conditions may offset some of the other factors that would normally result in a cold early US winter.

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There are too many weather forecast firms out there that should be spreading the word about global warming and not trying to paint a picture that this is only cyclical.

The new report by the WMO (below) are some excerpts, as well as some of my own comments–Jim Roemer

Recent new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report

Atmospheric levels of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) reached the highest ever recorded in human history in 2018, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced in a new report  earlier this week.

Why it matters: If the trend continues, as predicted, the impact of climate change will become even more severe, the intergovernmental organization warns. The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3-5 million years ago,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement accompanying the report.

  • “Carbon dioxide is the most important long-lived greenhouse gas, with a single molecule lasting in the air for hundreds to around 1,000 years,” science journalist Andrew Freedman has noted for Axios. “The continued buildup of carbon dioxide due to human activities, such as burning fossil fuels for energy, is driving global temperatures up and instigating harmful impacts worldwide.”

By the numbers: TheWMO’s Greenhouse Gas Bulletin reports that globally averaged concentrations of CO2 reached 407.8 parts per million last year. That means for every 1 million molecules of gas in the atmosphere, almost 408 were carbon dioxide. 

  • It’s an increase from 405.5 parts per million (ppm) in 2017. “The increase in CO2 from 2017 to 2018 was very close to that observed from 2016 to 2017 and just above the average over the last decade,” the WMO notes.
  • Global levels of CO2 crossed the symbolic and significant 400 parts per million benchmark in 2015

Syria and Indonesia Droughts–Just two examples of Climate Change

Prior to 2008, 25% of Syria’s GDP was attributed to agriculture. Over the last 11 years, multiple year droughts have lowered that percentage to less than 8%. This is probably one key reason (water shortages), which have caused political strife and the rise of Isis.

While droughts in Indonesia, Asia and Brazil are nothing new and often enhanced by certain El Nino’s and a warm, positive Indian Dipole, I am convinced that the frequency of such droughts are enhanced by both deforestation of the Amazon and climate change.

The political and social reality that Syria is currently facing is the result of various interconnected factors including religion, political reform, and economics. Recently, climate researchers have begun to analyze the influence that climate may have on world conflict, particularly in Syria. This idea has generated significant media attention. A recent study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences has analyzing how the 2007-2010 drought in Syria acted as a catalyst for today’s intense conflict and extreme refugee situation.

Researcher Colin P. Kelley and his colleagues took a broad approach to this topic by dividing their study into two parts: (1) a comprehensive literature review to describe Syria’s vulnerability to droughts and related historical consequences; and (2) an analysis of last century’s climate trends, and how anthropogenic influences made a scenario such as the 2007-2010 drought more likely to happen in the future.

Source: P. Aguirre, Chicago Policy Review–University of Pittsburg

California fires, Midwest cold, India tropical cyclones. What’s driving the world’s weather?

California fires, Midwest cold, India tropical cyclones. What’s driving the world’s weather?

Here is an article related to the picture above of another powerful cyclone approaching India.

The world’s weather is going haywire right now and there are several reasons to blame this on. First of all, there are some extreme global ocean temperatures with cool waters over Indonesia and warm waters over the Indian Ocean and what we call a near record “positive Indian Dipole”.

In addition, while El Nino has been pronounced dead, warming in the western Pacific east of Australia still suggests a west based ( El Nino Modoki exists). Combine this with the strongest stratospheric warming event since 2002 (some 50,000 feet above Antarctica) and we are seeing everything from flooding rains in India, to the first big late fall cold blast for U.S natural gas to forest fires out west. Australia’s drought is now in its third year, in which cotton planted will be adversely affected once again and the Aussie wheat crop sees another crop failure. Japan and India are seeing an unusual fall cyclone/typhoon season. See an old article here how the unusual cyclone activity over India caused crop problems and flooding.

The warming oceans are definitely partly due to climate change. I also feel the return of historical fires in California are at least partly to blame from a warming planet.

The stratospheric warming event you see here will have a big impact on South American weather and coffee and grain prices the next few months. This unusual warming, some 10-20 miles above Antarctica could be due, in part, to the lowest solar activity in many years. This causes the AAO index to go negative and the Polar Vortex over Antarctica to move north. However, the AAO index can also have implications on US weather, as my in house program CLIMATECH reveals.

The bottom line is that global weather is going to be more extreme than usual because of the above mentioned factors with some major price moves likely in commodities from natural gas to cocoa, coffee and cotton. To sign up to some of my free reports, please go here and fill out the form.

Jim

Weather to play a huge role in commodities! We’d like to hear from you

Weather to play a huge role in commodities! We’d like to hear from you

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This is an “old” sample of Jim Roemer’s weather spider back during the last big El Nino. This would be included in Jim’s newsletter.

Australia burning up, Alaska’s summer of fire and no ice, Brazil coffee dryness beginning to get noticed

Australia burning up, Alaska’s summer of fire and no ice, Brazil coffee dryness beginning to get noticed

Its not only the Amazon burning up, Australia is seeing some of the worst forest fires ever, as this will be the third consecutive year of drought. For a very disturbing article about Australia’s worsening water situation, please go here.

While some pundits will say everything from hurricane Dorian to the Brazil rain forest burning up to Australia’s droughts are cyclical and not due to climate change, I beg to differ. Never before have we seen warming of our oceans and the consistency of global forest fires. While we are going into a period of very low solar activity, which can result in more extreme global weather, climate change in my view is at least as important a factor.

Data from thousands of surface monitoring stations worldwide, including ocean buoys in the Pacific and land-based thermometers dotting the continents, show that July 2019 was the warmest month on Earth since at least 1850. Alaska too is shattering all time weather records.

Presently in September, both Brazil and Australia are destined to see some historical hot weather that may begin to affect Australian wheat prices and the global coffee market.

The reasons for the dry Australian weather, has been due to a combination of climate change, the later effects of El Nino and positive Indian Dipole (cool ocean over Indonesia) and most recently, a very unusual stratospheric warming event over Antarctica. To understand more about stratospheric warming, which is very unusual this time of the year, please go here to see the video.

Brazil coffee areas will be watched by commodity traders

This situation above and many of my studies suggest some weather problems for coffee in Brazil. You can see some of the dryness beginning (image below) that may have set a floor in coffee prices, following this major bear market. If you are interested in my full, detailed coffee weather report, which hedge funds and commodity traders subscribe to, I will send you a free copy

email me here: subscriptionsbestweather@gmail.com