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China may be smiling about the truce in the trade war, but heavy rains may produce frowns for cotton growers.
Cotton has been the only consistent bull market in agricultural commodities for more than 6 months. This was brought on by global economic growth, stronger demand and lower production expectations. Yield short falls are likely in Texas, where the...
Australia’s growing drought and new research about Climate Change vs. historical cycles
SOURCE- Gary Saucer-Thompson/Flickr There is no place on earth that has witnessed the perils of Climate Change, worse than Australia. In the last 5 years there have been several summers during which day time high temperatures climbed well over...
Brazil’s October drought and ‘citrus greening’ help orange juice prices soar
Orange juice futures are one of the most volatile commodity markets. "OJ" contracts are also quite illiquid. The chart below shows a 23% price increase since the end of March. This up move is in the face of reduced global demand for OJ, thanks to...
How a weakening La Niña and positive Indian Dipole are creating new worries for global grain crops. Will it last?
Growing weather problems around the globe are adding a bullish spin on grain prices. But questions remain about a weakening La Nina and if May rainfall will increase in drought stricken areas of Texas to Kansas. Wheat, in particular, has been in...
Why have sugar prices spilled off the table? It’s all about La Niña and high crop yields.
Historically, sugar price charts show a distinct pattern in response to El Niño and La Niña. The former is often associated with droughts in India and Southeast Asia causing global production shortfalls and firmer prices. This occurred in the...
In the Plains, the rain forecast for drought-stricken parts impacted wheat prices. The crop is still in bad shape, but there may be hope for Texas farmers?
In what has become a “wild” weather market in wheat the last few months, our forecast to clients on April 10th alluded to the likelihood of rains from Kansas to Texas. While freeze and drought conditions suggest the worst wheat crop yields since...
Freeze adds to drought woes for U.S. wheat as this April is the 5th coolest since 1895. La Niña not dead yet.
La Niña is still hanging on We have been disagreeing with several weather agencies and private firms about the sudden demise of La Niña due to: - Cool waters still extending across the tropical Pacific - The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) being...
What’s behind the 40% move higher in cocoa prices? The top producers fight to protect forests
Cocoa's Bull Move Cocoa is one of the few agricultural commodities in a "consistent" bull market during the last few months, rivaled only by cotton, which soared from rising global demand. There has been a host of information over the last two...
Cattle prices crash on Plains drought. Arctic Warming and growing Australia dryness
Plains drought causes Cattle Prices to Crash The expansion of the nation’s beef producing herds has resulted in a 30-40% decline in cattle prices over the last two years. This growth is a sign of good times for the beef industry after droughts in...
The March “Lamb” Heads Out – We Focus On Three Commodity Developments: Energy, Wheat and Cocoa.
EUROPE’S BEAST FROM THE EAST The warming Arctic this winter has resulted in incredibly cold weather in parts of Europe and Northeast Asia. Another symptom has been unusual March snowstorms in the Northeast U.S., the likes of which are...
A look at historical wheat yields for Kansas during La Nina
Most studies we have done continue the severe drought for the Plains wheat areas. Traders and researchers that want detailed up to the minute reports on our feeling of the wheat market and updates for international crops should email us at...
Global droughts: Rising grain prices and potential food inflation
The NOAA rainfall map shows the growing drought (red) that impacted Plains wheat since the end of December. Much of the Ohio Valley suffered flooding and tornadoes. From the economist's point of view, food prices are on the rise due to...
Soybeans explode on Argentina drought – How the MJO (predicted by CLIMATECH) pressured natural gas prices
Feb 2, 2018 forecast---CLIMATECH AND MJO- --(Map above) . While La Nina is only weak in nature and earlier forecasts painted a mostly rosy picture for South American soybean production, weather maps, in the past two weeks, have been “too wet” in...
Out of the Blue: Unexpected Weather Impacts on Markets and the Economy
Best Weather is pleased to welcome our guest blogger, Scott Mathews, who tells us about weather's role in economic events. Credits for narrative and graphic content appear at the end of this blog, below. 1857 – How a hurricane contributed to an...
Natural gas, cold winter weather and global issues for grains
Natural Gas Swings in the weather forecasts have caused equally volatile natural gas futures. It was so cold in Alberta earlier in January that natural gas wells froze up! Last week, frigid air and winter storm blasted the southern United States....
Forest fires to mudslides with more big storms on the way
See this important article at psgmag.com: HERE "Last month, a huge swath of Southern California was on fire. Now, with heavy rain imminent, local residents are holding their breath in anticipation of what might happen next. Many people are hoping...
Great news for Western ski resorts and a look at the snow so far
Map from CWG/Stormvista.com. All comments from Jim Roemer The map above shows estimated snow (inches) through January 25th . However, given my experience forecasting weather for ski areas for 25 years, I can tell you that much of the Sierras,...
Weather Pattern Change Pressures Natural Gas. What About Soybeans?
Traders watching Argentina weather closely for soybeans The occasional sell-off in soybeans the last few weeks has been due mostly to favorable weather in South America. While good rains are seen on the 11-15 day for most areas of Argentina,...
