1)How stratospheric warming helped natural gas prices surge over $5.00 in early December, only to come crashing down on the warmer late month outlook. That warming aloft will begin to weaken.
2)What is a -WPO and -NAO index? It will bring much colder weather to Europe and perhaps New England as we head towards the end of the month, However, since the negative NAO will be more eased based, that would favor Europe seeing more consistent snows into January rather than much of the central and eastern U.S.
3)How a +EPO index (cold pool near Alaska) and strong western U.S. troughs (-PNA) will offset a potential cold January weather pattern for the U.S. This means that most U.S. natural gas areas will be warmer than normal.
4)How strong vs weak La Niña events affect the weather in January
Following some free reports about weather and commodities here on Substack
GLAAM stands for Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum in weather forecasting. It is sometimes referred to as GAM and/or GLAM, but they all refer to the same phenomenon. It measures the atmosphere’s rotation, combining Earth’s spin and wind patterns, acting as a crucial index for global circulation and Earth’s rotation, used to understand large-scale climate patterns like ENSO and predict seasonal changes, linking atmospheric shifts to length-of-day variations via numerical models.
There are both positive and negative angular momentum phenomena, and it is the negative GLAAM that is responsible for the mid-late December warm up over most of the United States and (as of this writing) the massive 20% sell-off in natural gas in just a few days.
Key Concepts
What it is: A measure of the total rotational momentum of the atmosphere around Earth’s axis, calculated by integrating wind speeds and densities across the globe.
Components: It includes the momentum from Earth’s own rotation (mass term) and the momentum from atmospheric winds (wind term), which vary seasonally.
Why it Matters:
Earth’s Rotation: Fluctuations in GLAAM directly affect the Earth’s rotation speed and thus the length of the day (LOD).
Atmospheric Dynamics: It helps study how mountains, surface friction, and jet streams influence global weather patterns.
How it is used in forecasting:
Monitoring: Atmospheric angular momentum is monitored in real-time using data from numerical weather models (like NASA’s GEOS models).
Seasonal Forecasts: Negative GLAAM often signals conditions favoring La Niña, potentially leading to cooler, snowier winters in certain regions, while positive GLAAM links to El Niño patterns.
Predictability: Studies suggest long-range forecasts of GLAAM (up to a year) are possible, offering insights into future climate.
In essence, GLAAM provides a unified view of atmospheric dynamics, linking winds to Earth’s rotation and helping forecast broader climate trends.
Negative global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) is associated with La Niña conditions and can contribute to warmer winter weather in parts of the U.S. by altering global circulation patterns, particularly the jet stream.
During a negative GLAAM phase, the atmosphere moves more slowly relative to the Earth’s surface. Thinks of it like the skater to the right.
This change is consistent with and helps maintain La Niña conditions. During La Niña, the trade winds blowing east-to-west across the tropical Pacific are stronger than usual. These strong trade winds push warm surface water toward Asia, allowing colder, nutrient-rich water to upwell along the American west coast. This process is a key feature of La Niña, and the associated atmospheric circulation changes are reflected in the negative GLAAM.
Will the Polar Vortex come south again by January? Will GLAAM go in the opposite direction and become positive? If so, natural gas prices would rally again, as we approach January.
That is what we do at WeatherWealth: We “out forecast” standard weather models and making trade recommendations for clients in soft, grain and natural gas commodities on six continents.
Once your free trial ends to WeatherWealth ($1), you are eligible for a 70% annual discount for over 100 issues. Click below
The BestWeather Spider is considered a reliable tool for commodity traders because it integrates advanced weather forecasting (including factors like El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole) with market analysis to anticipate how weather events will impact commodity prices.
Screenshot
Jim Roemer’s approach uses both meteorological data and market fundamentals, providing actionable insights that help traders and farmers make informed decisions in volatile markets.The Spider’s recommendations are regularly updated in the WeatherWealth newsletter, which further enhances its reliability through continuous analysis and expert commentary.
Jim Roemer’s BestWeather Commodity Spider is a proprietary tool that combines weather analysis, technical analysis, and other market fundamentals to help commodity traders anticipate price movements in markets like grains, energy, and soft commodities. The Spider provides actionable insights by showing how weather patterns and forecasts may impact specific commodities, giving both experienced and novice traders an edge in making informed trading decisions. It is part of the broader suite of services offered by Best Weather Inc., which includes newsletters and reports with trade recommendations based on meteorological data and market analysis.
Jim Roemer’s BestWeather Commodity Spider predicts market moves by integrating several key factors:
Weather analysis: It assesses global weather patterns—such as El Niño, La Niña, droughts, and temperature anomalies—that can impact crop yields and energy demand
Technical analysis: The Spider incorporates chart patterns and market signals to identify trends or reversals in commodity prices.
Market fundamentals: It evaluates supply and demand factors, currency movements, and geopolitical events that influence commodity markets
Market psychology: The tool interprets trader sentiment and behavioral patterns to anticipate potential market reactions.
By combining these elements, the Spider provides actionable insights and trade ideas for commodities like grains, energy, coffee, and cocoa, helping traders anticipate and respond to market shifts
by Jim Roemer – Meteorologist – Commodity Trading Advisor – Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict – Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter
Scott Mathews, Editor
Weekend Report – May 9-11, 2025
Source: Screenshot by Climate Predict LLC – superimposed comments and markers by BestWeather – insert of Pacific Walker Circulation image by NOAA
While the grain futures have been mostly in a bear market, even with a weaker dollar, commodities from gold to cocoa and coffee continue in bull trends. Canola prices have really been perking up.
Potentially, there is a global weather problem as the drought in China is beginning to affect some crops in parts of southern Australia.
Below, I discuss how weather and the El Niño neutral stage (neither El Niño or La Niña) is affecting every commodity from wheat to ideal Midwest corn belt weather, previous crop problems in West African cocoa and why global sugar weather is improving. How about natural gas and a possible hot summer?
As a WeatherWealth newsletter subscriber, not only do you receive trading ideas, but you also see much more accurate weather information as we “second guess” standard weather models by looking at these 28 global weather teleconnections for all Ag and natural gas commodities.
—Enjoy Jim Roemer
Source: map by USDA
– commentary and indicator arrows added by BestWeather
Source: price graph by Barchart.com
– indicator arrow and superimposed wording by BestWeather
Source: screenshot by Climate Predict LLC
Source: screenshot by Climate Predict LLC with comments and indicator arrows superimposed by BestWeather
Source: map by Agri-Food Canada (a national information service)
Source: maps by stormvistawxmodels.com – used by permission- superimposed comment and indicator arrow by BestWeather
Source: map by WeatherBELL – used by permission
Sources: three screenshots above by Climate Predict LLC
– superimposed comments and indicator arrows by BestWeather
– antarctic polar projection map insert by NOAA, with superimposed markers by BestWeather
Source: maps by USDA, with indicator arrow superimposed by BestWeather
Source: map by WeatherBELL – used by permission
Source: maps by NOAA with superimposed labels and comments by BestWeather
Source: map by NOAA with superimposed arrow indicator by BestWeather
Sources: seasonality table by MRCI (used by permission), with superimposed elements by BestWeather- Map by stormvistawxmodels.com – used by permission – comments and indicators by BestWeather
Source: BestWeather Spider – royalty free natural gas flair photo by pexels.com
Artwork created via AI software DALL-E 3 and is the property of BestWeather
Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!!!
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict LLC, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he commands a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
This article contains syndicated content. We have not reviewed, approved, or endorsed the content, and may receive compensation for placement of the content on this site. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
This video addresses why feet of snow will affect the Northeast and New England for the next two weeks and why a cold mid-winter could last into March for the northern half to two-thirds of the Midwest and eastern U.S.
Click below to learn about A) The Polar Vortex; B) The positive SOI and weak La Niña signal; C) Why skiing in the Northeast and New England will have the best mid-late February conditions in a decade
HELPING YOU MAKE THE BEST INVESTMENT DECISIONS BASED ON THE WEATHER
We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it.
