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Commodities and Weather–Sample of Jim Roemer’s Premium consulting service
*Flooding for Canadian and US spring wheat *Rains easing dryness to Brazil coffee, but will it turn hot and dry again? *What cool ocean temperatures near Peru, but warm near Australia suggests for the US winter and for natural gas prices. These...
Australia burning up, Alaska’s summer of fire and no ice, Brazil coffee dryness beginning to get noticed
Its not only the Amazon burning up, Australia is seeing some of the worst forest fires ever, as this will be the third consecutive year of drought. For a very disturbing article about Australia's worsening water situation, please go here. While...
First frost for Midwest grain farmers? Natural gas price rally
Improved Fall Weather for Midwest Corn and Soybean Farmers After the late planted spring for many Midwest corn and soybean farmers, from the record wet May and June weather, conditions have improved over the last few weeks helping to pressure...
Hurricane Dorian, El Nino Modoki , historical hurricane tracks and commodities
Friday night--August 30th update 11 pm-- I mentioned a few days ago to clients that Dorian would likely explode more than models suggested. Indeed, as of this writing, she is now a category 4 hurricane--tremendous explosion in less than 12 hours....
Lungs of the earth are suffocating: Potential effects on hurricanes, Brazil and commodities
Background of what is going on in the Amazon and the Brazil Economy Often referred to as "the planet's lungs" because it provides 20% of the world's oxygen, the Amazon rainforest has been ablaze for weeks. You can see a disturbing video about it,...
Corn price collapse, not really surprising and a look at Texas cotton dryness
Many farmers and commodity traders were blind-sided by the incredibly bearish USDA crop report on Monday. However, I have alerted paying clients for nearly 2 weeks that the following fundamentals would potentially result in a bearish August 12th...
Teleconnections and the need for Midwest August rainfall for corn/soybean crops
There are grave concerns about China not working with Trump (for good reason) to settle the Trade War dispute. These have helped to pressure grain prices again. Many analysts keep talking about millions of acres of corn not planted, thus preventing...
Another frost for Brazil as AAO index tanks. What’s that?
Last Thursday, I began alerting private clients about the AAO index going negative. The implications were to be some frost affecting the wheat crops in southern Brazil and probably the coffee in Parana. At present only about 1% of the Brazil coffee...
El Niño Modoki II–What it is, and is there any hope for a rally in grain or natural gas prices?
Natural gas production has consistently reached new record-high levels in recent months. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects production growth will begin to decelerate in the coming months, but it may take some sustained hot weather...
Tropical Storm Barry, El Nino Modoki and Energy Markets
New Orleans and Texas are no stranger to hurricanes. Hurricane Katrina in August, 2005 created one of the worst national disasters in history, while two years ago, the city of Houston witnessed more than 30" of rain that temporarily put the...
The Brazilian coffee frost
I began telling clients "quite" early (June 23rd) about the possibility of some frost to Brazil coffee leaves and trees. A lot is still unknown about the effects of this past weekend's frost. Often market moves on frost are psychology. Here is some...
European heatwave, wheat, and the recent bull move in coffee
"Where is the next pot of gold in commodities, as I continue to tour European wheat areas?" Roemer The big commodity movers of late have been in the non weather markets in both gold and crude oil. These two markets have been breaking technical...
USDA June crop report and a look at weather and global commodities
USDA report bullish for corn, but more weather issues will be needed to keep the corn market in an uptrend The incessant wet Midwest spring has brought about some of the worst early season US. corn crops ratings in recent memory. Indeed, the USDA...
How a positive Indian Dipole and a lingering El Niño signal pose risks for Russian and Australian wheat
About a month ago, I wrote that El Niño bears little correlation between wheat yields and weather (spring and/or summer) in Europe and the Ukraine. However, growing dryness in the easternmost Russian winter wheat areas (and potentially in the...
Prevent plant options for farmers as Midwest flooding continues?
Other than the Trade War tariffs that Trump has put on China, a stronger U.S. dollar and now historical Midwest flooding is a real "triple whammy" for many U.S. grain farmers. What is behind all of this wet weather? It is not just El Nino? Why some...
Cocoa prices seeing short covering on El Nino and Swollen Shoot Virus in Ghana
The weather over the next few months will play an important role in the development of the Ghana and Ivory Coast cocoa "main crop", which accounts for more than 60% of world chocolate production. Concerns about disease issues in Ghana and the tail...
Bull market in grains inspired by flooding and some global areas of dryness
After 5 years of a global surplus of grain crops, brought on by record U.S. and mostly South American corn and soybean production and swelling world stocks of wheat, the first "real legitimate" weather market in years has developed the last 2...
El Nino weakening. Where are the present global weather extremes?
Many commodities have been in the tank due to a combination of renewed Trade War concerns with China and a growing glut for such commodities as corn, wheat, soybeans, coffee and others. Global weather patterns have been mostly beneficial to...
