Updated weekly global commodity weather reports, here
Australian catastrophe & weather losses pass $261m year-to-date
by ARTEMIS on AUGUST 21, 2018
Natural catastrophe and severe weather losses in Australia that fell to the insurance and reinsurance industry in 2018 so far now total roughly AU $261 million, after the Hobart storms and floods industry loss was raised to $100 million by the Insurance Council of Australia.
It’s still under 3½ months since devastating floods struck parts of Hobart and Kingston, after severe storms struck the area, but already insurers are said to have closed more than 50% of household claims, the Insurance Council said.
ICA General Manager for Communications Campbell Fuller commented “Insurers have worked diligently and efficiently to help their customers since the floods, including sending staff, specialists and equipment from the mainland to speed the recovery effort.
“As of today, almost 90 per cent of motor vehicle claims have been closed, as well as about 55 per cent of home building claims and almost 45 per cent of contents claims.
“The insurance industry promised immediately following the floods that it would act swiftly and with compassion to help affected households and businesses. It has, and continues to, deliver to customers despite many challenges, including shortages of equipment and replacement goods in Tasmania.”
The Hobart floods and storms are actually the largest insured natural catastrophe event to strike Australia in 2018.
2018 has so far seen a lower volume of catastrophe and weather claims falling to insurance and reinsurance capital than in recent years, but with most of the second-half still to run there is plenty of time for the burden to rise.
So far Australia has driven just over AU $261 million (US $192m) of losses from catastrophes and major severe weather events to insurance and reinsurance providers, with the Hobart floods leading the way at almost $100 million, New South Wales and Victorian bushfires in March around the Tathra area AU $82.5 million, Tropical Cyclone Marcus AU $62 million, and North and Central Queensland flooding in early March driving another AU $17 million of insured losses.
Fuller said that insurers are closely monitoring hundreds of bushfires in NSW and Queensland, with concerns having been raised about an early start to the Australian bushfire season.
SARASOTA, Fla.—(BUSINESS WIRE)–Commodity markets across the globe will be greatly affected by weather and crop conditions in the months ahead.
Most recently:
Droughts were devastating wheat crops
Cotton prices were making new highs on weather issues in Texas and China (though Trade War concerns and some rains in Texas have caused a short-term sell off)
Hurricane season is fast approaching (Mr. Roemer’s research suggest a weaker than normal season)
Months in advance, CLIMATECH® has assisted hedge funds and companies in the insurance and food industries to anticipate weather issues and price movements. It is also a highly effective tool in school and university classes and labs by teaching students about climate change, and how climatic events that are thousands of miles away can help predict the weather with more precision.
“Teleconnections and analogs” are the key elements in a new hurricane feature that greatly improves accuracy in predicting hurricane tracks and intensities.
“We are very excited about our new hurricane module, which can be used across multiple industries. Our product is a “must” for any meteorologist. We are working to find the “Holy Grail” in long-range weather forecasting,” saidJames Roemer– President of BestWeather, Inc.
CLIMATECH® subscribers will receive updated teleconnection data twice a month with many other features that help determine long range weather trends impacting various industries.
For comparisons to current conditions, two of the most significant analog years identified by CLIMATECH® for hurricanes are 1963 and 2017(shown above). The 1963 teleconnections having the greatest similarity to those prevailing today are:
The negative QBO index (winds some 30-50 MPH up in the atmosphere that are blowing from east to west)
Neutral El Nino conditions (La Nina has weakened)
The cool ocean temperatures in the South Atlantic (this tends to reduce hurricane activity)
Notice that in 1963, total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was 130. This is below historical standards and much less than in 2017, when total ACE was 230 with 16 named storms, 6 of which were major hurricanes. Our expectation is that the hurricane season will be weaker than the historical averages, with the Gulf coast likely NOT having a major strike this year. For additional information about hurricane impact on commodities, and our analog years, please visit our blog page at https://www.bestweatherinc.com/best-blog/.
To inquire about CLIMATECH® subscriptions, and for information about a unique weather/commodity investment newsletter that we will begin offering this summer, please email us at the address below.
There is no place on earth that has witnessed the perils of Climate Change, worse than Australia. In the last 5 years there have been several summers during which day time high temperatures climbed well over 110°F in some locations. This year, what was supposed to be a relatively wet and normal summer has turned out to be a devastating drought for parts of the country. Historically, weak La Niñas tend to bring beneficial rains to cotton and grain fields. In my opinion, Climate Change and the meteorological phenomenon known as a positive Indian Dipole, has trumped that idea. Most computer models have the Indian Dipole going negative during the next few months. This would bring an increase in rain and end the recent drought. However, warming oceans in the Arabian Sea (west of India) could prevent this “blessing” from happening.
Many young people in Australia have been “let down” by some adults, politicians and the media who have apparently neglected the issue of Climate Change. To read a story about one Australian teacher’s challenge in educating her students about this topic, please read here.
Here is an excerpt — “I consider myself an innovative and engaging teacher, and looked forward to the project. It took me only the one class to realise the challenge would be a difficult one. What I discovered in speaking to students was that while they were in no way “anti-science”, headline-grabbing climate change scepticism had impacted on their faith in their own ability to understand science, highlighting what I’ve always believed to be the motivation of sceptics: the undermining of our own confidence to think and grasp ideas. It also took me little time to realize that, in general, the students felt badly let down by some adults…who they felt had neglected an issue that would soon impact negatively on their adult lives. There were moments when I felt that the project was about to fail, until I was walking along the banks of the Maribyrnong River in Melbourne’s western suburbs and came up with an idea. I began that morning’s class with a simple prompt: ‘Tell me about your river.’ ”
AUSTRALIA’S WEATHER — Made up of extremes for thousands of years
Australia has always been shaped by floods, droughts, and blistering heat. How big and how intense these events were was poorly understood due to the limited record of historical observations. However, new scientific evidence is now coming to light!
Some extraordinary contrasting climatic events have battered Australia for millennia. Are recent extreme events really worse than those in the past? There has been an ongoing debate about whether these recent weather extremes are just part of the chronicles of normal historical cycles, or linked Climate Change.
Historical records provide rough estimates of the extent and intensity of droughts in parts of Australia since the late 1700s. For example, captains’ logbooks from ships anchored off Sydney describe the Settlement Drought (1790-1793). This protracted event threatened the tenuous foothold of early European settlers on the continent. In addition, farmers’ records describe the Goyder Line Drought (1861–1866) that occurred in northern areas north.
Observational weather records provide more detailed descriptions of climatic variability. However, systematic recording of weather in Australia only began in the late 19th century. Since then, many parts of the continent have experienced prolonged wet periods and droughts. The most well known of these are the Federation drought (1895-1903), the World War II drought (1939-45), and the recent Millennium drought (1997-2009).
All three events were devastating to agriculture and the broader economy, but each was distinct in its spatial footprint, duration, and intensity. Importantly, these droughts also differed in seasonality.
In a recent paper, 800 years of seasonal rainfall patterns were reconstructed across the Australian continent. Records show that parts of Northern Australia are wetter than ever before, and that major droughts of the late 20th and early 21st centuries in southern Australia are likely without precedent over the past 400 years. This new knowledge gives a clearer understanding of how droughts and flooding rains may be changing in the context of a rapidly warming world.
Here are a few excerpts from the recent study about “historical shifts in Australia’s rainfall and temperature patterns” never recorded before in the history of mankind. This seems to offer strong proof that Climate Change is to blame for the continent’s changing climatic landscape–
“Our new study used an extensive network of tree rings, ice cores, corals, and sediment records from across Australia and the adjacent Indian and Pacific Oceans to extend rainfall records across all of the major regions of the country by between 400 and 800 years. Importantly, we did this for two seasons, the cool (April–September) season and warm (October–March) season, over eight large natural resource management regions spanning the Australian continent. This allows us to place recent observations of rainfall variability into a much longer context across the entire continent for the first time.”
The topic of Climate Change will bring about greater food, water and national security issues, not only in Australia, but across the planet.
In a final study that I found, new scientific research sheds a strange light, yet a fascinating one, about a possible link between Australian rainfall and sea salt deposits in Antarctic ice. However, these seem to suggest that present day man-made global warming could have a much greater influence on rainfall patterns in Australia that what was observed hundreds, or even thousands, of years ago. For that article, please see here
The warming Arctic this winter has resulted in incredibly cold weather in parts of Europe and Northeast Asia. Another symptom has been unusual March snowstorms in the Northeast U.S., the likes of which are unprecedented. Although four Nor’easters have clobbered the Eastern U.S., I do not agree with the forecasters who attribute this to La Niña.
Once again, the “warming planet” signals are the handwriting on the wall. They read “the Arctic is warming” and “the Atlantic ocean temperatures are rising.” As far as the energy markets are concerned, the UK natural gas futures contract reacted extremely to the cold weather. The U.S. has not had nearly the consistent cold winter as observed in Europe. The negative NAO. Index (warm block near Greenland) and warming near Alaska (negative EPO) have resulted in this “Beast from the East”. For more information about this incredible European cold and some changing feelings about global warming, Please click the following link: Here
a rare coincidence of the NAO and EPO indices
WHEAT PRICE COLLAPSE DUE TO SUDDEN SHIFT IN U.S. PLAINS DROUGHT
Wheat prices have had a steady climb during January and February, as the chart reveals below (right). However, it usually takes some other weather disaster somewhere in the world to have a longer term bull market in wheat prices. Two fundamental factors are brewing in the world of wheat:
a) The U.S. has not been competitive in the world market, and
b) Russia is sitting on huge global stocks.
These realities began to increase wheat market volatility long before we changed our forecast views presented to private clients on March 15th. We issued a heightened alarm for a potential easing of the Plains drought.
Due to weather factors not related to La Niña, there has been a precipitous drop in wheat prices.
CLIMATECH (below) shows how the present La Niña is similar to 1955. Back then, “normal” dryness continued in the Plains wheat areas (red). Based on these teleconnections below, this should have happened. However, computer models, along with our forecast, began changing on March 15th. This prompted us to alert private clients about a potential change in wheat price direction. If you would like more information, please email us at
As wheat prices have taken it on the chin, one of the lone bull markets in agricultural commodities recently has been in cocoa. Dry, hot weather did cause some minor reduction in the west Africa cocoa crop this winter. This is quite is unusual for La Niña. However, the main reason for the bull move is far too many short futures positions. This high level of commercial hedges are bumping up against rising global demand. In addition, there is press coverage pointing out that cocoa farmers in Ghana will see lower production in coming years due to the “illegal gold mining boom.”
Here is an excerpt from the current issue of National Geographic:
“Gold mining has always been a part of Ghana, from the ornate jewelry of the Ashanti kings to British colonization. In the last several years, largely unregulated galamsey (informal, illegal) mining has ramped up, due in part to Chinese investors who bring in sophisticated equipment and a lagging economy that makes the prospect of striking gold too sweet to pass. These often illegal operations can result in contaminated water, deforestation, and a rise in violent crime.”
“In 2011, Ghana produced a record-setting amount of cocoa, weighing in at over one million tonnes. Since then, as illegal mining steadily ramped up, cocoa production has trended downwards, with a drop to 740,000 tonnes in 2015.”
For the full, interesting article about this from National Geographic, please click here
The title may sound like the first line of a joke, but this is about the environment.
Environmental Destruction is No Joke
The following brief dissertation is not a joke, but there is a joker in the narrative. See if you can spot him.
Theodore Roosevelt: President of the United States 1901-1909
“Teddy” was an avid outdoorsman, as well as an author, explorer, naturalist, conservationist and soldier. Having lead the Rough Riders in the Spanish-American war, he returned home as a war hero. He was elected governor of the state of New York and then as William McKinley’s vice president. Subsequent to McKinley’s assassination, Roosevelt became the 25th president. Upon entering the Oval Office, he went straight to work on the environment. In addition to setting aside 230 million acres of public land as a sanctuary from the forces of modernity, he created the United States Forest Service, and established:
150 national forests
51 federal bird reserves
4 national game preserves
5 national parks
Theodore Roosevelt, at the age of 42, was the youngest person to become US president.
Richard Nixon: President of the United States 1969-1974
Nixon, who started out practicing law, saw active duty in the US Navy Reserve during World War II, and became a career politician. He was elected to the House of Representatives in 1946 and to the Senate in 1950. From 1952 to 1960 he served as Dwight D. Eisenhower’s vice president. In 1968 he was elected the 37th US president. In 1970 he created the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) whose purpose, among several others, was to enforce air-pollution laws. The law’s intention was to reduce the emission of six common pollutants:
Particles
Ozone
Lead
Carbon monoxide
Nitrogen dioxide
Sulfur dioxide
Richard Nixon was the only US president who left office by resignation.
Donald Trump: President of the United States 2017 – 20??
Before he became a presidential aspirant, the real-estate developer and reality television personality, Donald Trump, tweeted (2012), “The concept of global warming was created by, and for, the Chinese, in order to make US manufacturing non-competitive.” Since entering the Oval Office, in one year’s time he presided over events covered in the following headlines:
Order Aims to Expand Offshore Drilling (April)
Interior Department Scrubs Climate Change Website (April)
Trump Budget Proposes Steep Cuts for Environment (May)
US Pulls Out of Paris Climate Agreement (June)
Mining Health Study Halted; Climate Advisory Panel Disbanded (August)
Trump EPA Poised to Scrap Clean Power Plan (October)
Interior Department Proposes Largest-Ever Oil and Gas Lease Auction (October)
Trump Unveils Plan to Dramatically Downsize Two National Monuments (December)
Trump Drops Climate Change from List of National Security Threats (December)
Donald Trump, at the age of 70, was the oldest person to become US president.
By his own admission, Donald Trump is a joker. Trump told Fox & Friends:
“Well, I think the climate change is just a very, very expensive form of tax. A lot of people are making a lot of money. I know much about climate change. I’d be — received environmental awards. And I often joke that this is done for the benefit of China. Obviously, I joke. But this is done for the benefit of China, because China does not do anything to help climate change. They burn everything you could burn; they couldn’t care less. They have very — you know, their standards are nothing. But they — in the meantime, they can undercut us on price. So it’s very hard on our business.”
Politico.com is the source for the above Fox & Friends transcript from an interview on 1/18/2017.
(Scroll to bottom of blog space for other credits)
But first… AND NOW, FOR SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT:
Credits
Published material written by Gene Stone (“Surviving Trump”)
Nationalgeographic.com news piece by Michael Greshko, Laura Parker and Brian Clark Howard
The global community of Wikipedia contributors
1909 Oval Office photograph source is whitehousemuseum.org
Caracature of Theodore Roosevelt attributed to artist “Donkey Hotey”
Caracature of Richard Nixon appeared on a Dutch bubble gum card by “Tribetton”
Caracature of Donald Trump attributed to artist Alan Davis
Joker cards copied from Google image search for “Jokers on classic playing cards”
Official video of Bob Dylan’s Jokerman (Infidels – 1983) is posted on YouTube. Video producers – George Lois and Larry ‘Ratso’ Sloman. Music producer- Mark Knoppfler
It is often quoted. You’ve been hearing it or reading it for years. Politicians and business celebrities use it in their opening lines. Motivational speakers woo their audiences with it. It is the proclamation that the Chinese character for “crisis” is a formation comprised of two characters: one signifies “danger” while “opportunity” is the meaning of the other.
Check it out at your favorite online research source, and you’ll find that this story is nothing but Fake Etymology (bogus word origin).
Even if it isn’t precisely true, the concept actually does make philosophical sense. When confronted with a crisis, you have the choice of three ways to perceive it: as a danger, as an opportunity, or as both.
Perceptions of the climate situation also fall into three camps. Some see a dire threat that only humans can stop, whether they created it, or not. Others see a natural cycle that swings like a pendulum throughout the millennia. In the third camp are the opportunists, who see profit.
The term “climate change” can conjure up a wide range of thoughts and emotions. Euphemisms applicable to climate uncertainty are clichés. Is the glass half full or half empty? Do you focus on the doughnut or its hole? What’s real is society’s responses which encompass the totality of full glasses and empty ones, doughnuts and holes, dangers and opportunities. These are not fake.
Greet the Heat and Embrace It
In 1988, Achel Bakeri, now one of the wealthiest people in India, founded Symphony, the world’s largest manufacturer of cooling systems. At the start, Symphony’s customers were all domestic, but in the last 10 years, climate change has showered them with export opportunities. A record heat wave that hit Russia in 2010 opened the floodgate for Symphony. Their core customers stretch from the Middle East to North Africa. Heat waves in Europe have broadened their coverage to Germany and UK. Symphony’s biggest project (the biggest air cooler project anywhere, so far) is in Mecca.
Photo by Prarthna Singh
The company is featured in an article published on The Verge (theverge.com) by Josh Dzieza. It is entitled The Race Against Heat and subtitled “How do you cool 7.5 Billion people on a warming planet?” The author quotes Symphony’s sales VP, Rajesh Mishra, who sees climate change as a threat as well as a business opportunity. “It looks bright!” he said, laughing, when I asked him about the future of the cooling industry. “It is bright because of the changing climate, unfortunately. This is an irreversible process, and now with the great Mr. Donald Trump pulling out of the treaty, things will become even worse,” he said, smiling grimly.
Sensibilities such as Mishra’s are real, not fake. There is an old saying: “When life gives you lemons, make lemonade!”
Photo by Prarthna Singh
Benefactors
Regardless of the cause, the Arctic is warming. It is real, not fake, news. Greenland’s onshore glaciers have been retreating to reveal significantly large mineral deposits. These include iron, zinc, uranium and gold. Not only are diamonds there too, but the lodes of rare earth elements may rival those in China. As the Atlantic Ocean has been getting warmer, fish populations are seeking a colder environment. Mackerel, herring, cod, halibut, haddock and blue fin tuna have been migrating into Greenland’s waters. This windfall is merely the flip side of the other story. It is the corollary of rising sea levels that could extinguish any island nations left after the cascading catastrophic weather events get their first licks.
The New England cod business is collapsing because the cod swam away to a colder place. They will be caught and sold by someone else. That’s business. Speaking of climate change windfalls, there is a host of examples in McKenzie Funk’s book Windfall: The Booming Business of Global Warming (Penguin Press, 2014).
“Global warming’s physical impacts can be separated into three broad categories: melt, drought, and deluge. Funk travels to two dozen countries to profile entrepreneurial people who see a potential windfall in each of these forces.”
“The melt is a boon for newly arable, mineral rich regions of the Arctic, such as Greenland-and for the man-made snow trade. Drought creates opportunities for private firefighters working for insurance companies as well as for fund managers backing south Sudanese warlords who control local farmland. The deluge (rising seas, surging rivers, and super-storms) has been our most distant concern.”
“However, for Dutch architects designing floating cities and American scientists patenting hurricane defenses, the race is on. By letting climate change continue unchecked, we are choosing to adapt to a warming world. Containing the resulting surge will benefit some, but much of the planet will suffer. McKenzie Funk has investigated both sides, and what he has found will shock us all.”
HELPING YOU MAKE THE BEST INVESTMENT DECISIONS BASED ON THE WEATHER
We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it.
