by Jim Roemer | Mar 29, 2017 | Climate, Climatech, Climatelligence, Forecast, Global Warming, Weather
The floods in Peru will continue in a series of historical events. Most global commodity regions around the world have escaped the severe weather. If rains were to move further south into the Chilean Copper Mines (desert region), this would be significant for copper prices. Right now, it is not an issue, however.
The situation in Peru is destroying thousands of years of their rich heritage. Click to the left (blue)
Our unique, long range forecast program CLIMATECH, predicted this flooding as early as last January. Below, you will see the global rainfall forecast from early January. More heavy rains are on the way. The forecast it made 2 months ago, used the warm Atlantic (AMO) and warming at Nino 1+2 off the coast of Peru, as El Nino conditions are slowly evolving.
by Jim Roemer | Jan 17, 2017 | Climate, Climatech, Commodities, Markets, Weather
Espírito Santo, a little known state in southeastern Brazil, is known for its tropical beaches and mountainous nature preserves. Founded in 1551, the capital and port city Vitória has a compact colonial-era center. Across narrow Vitória Bay lies Vila Velha, site of Praia da Costa, a famous beach getaway, and to the 16th-century Penha Convent, offering sweeping views from its steep perch. They have been adversely affected by drought for the last 2 years and there is talk of a recent ban on Robusta coffee exports that is driving coffee prices.
Some big time rains have hit key Arabica coffee areas this past week, but I remain concerned about the main Robusta coffee areas in Ne Brazil (Espiritio Santo) and what continues to be a slow end to the Vietnam coffee harvest. This has been one of the wettest winters ever for Vietnam; this after a drought a year ago from El Nino decimated irrigation operations and lowered acreage and production.
According to Bloomberg, Arthur Heleodoro Covre, a fifth-generation farmer who’s planted 2,500 hectares (6,178 acres) of robusta across eight farms in the northern part of Espirito Santo, said that he was only able to pump enough water for about 30 percent of his crops before the new ban.
Covre had initially estimated his harvest would reach 30,000 bags in the season that starts in April, but the drought means he will fall short of the forecast by at least 5 percent, he said in a telephone interview from Pinheiros municipality. A bag weighs 60 kilograms, or 132 pounds.
While there is some rainfall improvement for the higher quality Brazil Arabica blends, if we get into a hot, dry weather pattern again in February, given the fact that Robusta coffee beans around the world are harder to find (these beans are used in instant coffee and grown in Indonesia, Vietnam and NE Brazil), any major collapse in coffee prices in the weeks ahead is probably unlikely. More coffee roasters are using arabica blends given the global tightness in Robusta.
Traders will be watching weather forecast patterns both for Argentina soybeans and for Brazil and Vietnam coffee in the weeks ahead. This will greatly affect prices. Will it dry out in flooded northern Argentina, will southern Argentina which will see hot,- dry weather, cool off and will NE Brazil get rains easing the drought and export restrictions for Robusta coffee? This is what the market will focus on.
by Jim Roemer | Dec 6, 2016 | Climatech, Energy, Forecast, Strategy, Weather
The natural gas market has rallied more than 15% the last 2 weeks due to ideas of a much colder winter and more bullish EIA’s vs last year’s warm winter. We began noticing blocks in Canada 2 weeks ago, that made us adjust our forecast for colder weather and become more in the bullish camp with prices just above $3.00. What will be keys to the winter forecast? Will it warm up after 2 weeks of cold? What these blocks due (-WPO) and (-EPO) are keys. Subscribers to our service will get up to date short and long range weather forecasts, plus invaluable information gauging the psychology of these and many other markets based on the weather.
Chart below supplied by StormVista of teleconnections predicted by mid December
by Jim Roemer | Dec 4, 2016 | Climatech, Climatelligence, Forecast, Strategy
KEY POINT—GLAAM (which has to do with El Nino/La Nina) is acting much more like a La Nina. This is different that I thought 2 months ago. This will have some important implications for cocoa (good crops) , coffee, grains (maybe Argentina dryness later on) and perhaps energy weather in the weeks and months ahead. (more on this over the next week or so).
In the meantime, this also complicates the early winter U.S. forecast (1998 warm winter vs. 2010 a cold one).
Most studies I have done suggest temporary cold in December and not long lasting. However, given this scneario below, some colder risks will occur in the Midwest and Plains with big time snowstorms the first week to 10 days of December. THE BOTTOM LINE IS, after my high confidence back in October about a collapse in natural gas prices, the market will remain volatile the next couple weeks and possibly supported on breajs, and not as clear cut as I pointed out, weeks ago.
LOOK AT 2 DIFFERENT ANALOGS BELOW
1998 was a very warm December and 2010 was a cold one. Our original analog of 1998 has worked great for world coffee, cocoa, sugar and forecasting the warm summer for natural gas and warm fall. However, until we can dig into this a bit further—some complications and lower confidence has arisen with 2010 (cold winter) also coming up.
THE GRAPHIC BELOW FROM OUR TELECONNECTION PROGRAM SHOWS THE FOLLOWING—
The influence of a -NAO/-AO index on December temps across U.S. natural gas areas, in this case the Midwest and Plains. Notice when the NAO/AO is negative it can make a huge difference in temps.
This complicates our original forecast for a warm December a bit, even though many studies suggest cold weather will be short lived. If and when the -NAO blocks weakens, we will be the first to alert you to potentially overall warmer risks. For now, the trend is a bit colder as discussed early Friday, for December.
