On May 11, India announced that locusts had been found in 15 Rajistani districts on the Pakistan border. This week the pests flew further inland, leading the state agricultural department to spray swarms in central India’s Madhya Pradesh. Locusts already menace crops and livelihoods in 23 other countries from Tanzania to Pakistan.
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme described this year’s outbreaks, which started in Africa, as “…unprecedented in modern times.” On May 20th, the World Bank pledged US$500 million to combat the locusts and the impacts of their destruction.
Where the Bugs Are Headed
The swarms are already in East Africa, the Middle East, and Southwest Asia. Experts say they may reach West Africa by June but their arrival depends on the winds and rain. Up to 42 million people in East Africa and Yemen alone face food insecurity and insects moving west will add more. Yemen’s war made it a breeding ground, while locusts also continue to reproduce in Iran. The country had no swarms in the previous 50 years. Affected provinces make up Iran’s breadbasket and locusts could impact food security for one-third of the country’s population.
FAO’s global forecast predicts locusts spreading as far as Mali and Mauritania by July. Source for maps: FAO and http://HackettAdvisors.com.
While not at great risk, even China exhorted its southern provinces like Tibet and Yunnan to be on alert. The country’s leaders fear that the swarms will make their way north from India and Pakistan if not contained.
The India-Pakistan Border Is a Breeding Ground
FAO forecasts that rains on the India-Pakistan border in June could protect India somewhat. The wet weather may encourage the locusts to remain and lay eggs, rather than move across the Indian plains.
However, locust season usually runs from July to October in India, and swarms are unusual there. Taking no chances, the country issued warnings for Rajistan’s neighbor Punjab and other provinces in recent weeks. Punjab is India’s third most productive rice-producing state and also grows a significant amount of cotton. Small locust outbreaks already occurred along the state’s border with Pakistan in January. Gujarat also shares the border with Pakistan and is India’s largest cotton-producing state. This week Gujarat reported small swarms, but Indian agricultural officials declared the situation was under control.
That some crops are between seasons or not planted yet plays in India’s favor. The current swarms in Africa grow to tens of square kilometers, with 40 to 80 million insects per square kilometer. Since a locust chomps through its weight in food each day, a swarm easily decimates fields. A one square kilometer swarm eats the same amount in one day as 35,000 people.
Locusts attack a farm in East Africa. Source: United Nations.
High Tech Sleuths Help Countries Predict Locusts Path
The current locust outbreak is the biggest in some countries for 70 years. Favorable breeding conditions through May could bring new swarms when harvests begin in June and July in some countries. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and FAO this week announced a web app to forecast the insects’ path. Using NOAA wind data, the app predicts a swarm’s location at five-minute intervals up to seven days in advance. FAO uses the app to help countries to develop an effective strategy for deploying resources against the locusts.
Unfortunately, some fear certain agriculture departments may need the app permanently, since the wet conditions that bring locust swarms may become more frequent. In 2019, warming waters in the Indian Ocean brought eight tropical cyclones to East Africa. The average season brings one or two.
Keith Cressman, FAO’s senior locust forecasting officer told National Geographic that, “…we can assume there will be more locust outbreaks and upsurges in the Horn of Africa.” FAO predicts that, in a worst-case scenario, locusts could impact the livelihoods of one-tenth of the world’s population.
Rice transplanting for 2020’s main crop begins in May for key Asian exporting countries like Thailand, India, and Viet Nam. In most areas, transplanting is more often manual than machine-driven. However, Covid-19 and the labor shortage caused by migrant laborers’ return to their homes during lockdowns may impact this year’s effort.
The Rice Market Soared in April on Covid-19 Fears
Asia produces about 90% of the rice grown in the world, and holds the majority of the grain’s consumers. In April, rice prices reached seven year highs. As with wheat, there were fears of virus-driven shortages. Rice’s high prices were brought on partially by stockpiling concern and also by export bans placed in nations like Viet Nam. Drought in Thailand, which exports more rice than any country except India, meant prices already had started to climb slowly before Covid-19.
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India, the Biggest Rice Exporter, Ceased Shipping
In the beginning of April, India’s Rice Exporters Association announced exporters would stop signing new contracts. Labor shortages at mills and ports combined with logistics disruptions made even current contracts very difficult to met.
China Stockpiled Rice, Viet Nam Stopped Exports
While the Chinese government extoled citizens not to hoard rice, it increased its central grain reserve by 350,000 tons. China is the world’s largest producer of paddy, but most is kept for domestic consumption.
Meanwhile, Viet Nam, the world’s third biggest rice exporter, imposed export controls. Cambodia also banned rice exports around the same time.
Production of rice, by country. Source: FAO.
All this Was Good News for Thailand and US
Thailand’s rice outlook was bleak at the start of 2020. While Thailand’s domestic rice prices rose by 20-% to 30%, drought had decreased off-season milled rice by 1.5-2.0 tons. The country expected to export less due to the strong Thai baht (its currency), increased competition, and the drought. When competitors instituted export bans, the Thai Rice Exporters Association confidently announced that Thai exports would improve, and they did. Despite the improved conditions, however, Thai rice exports from January through April decreased 39% compared to the year before.
Rice planting was in mid-season in the United States when COVID-19 took hold globally. Production targets increased, including for aromatic varieties like those in Asia. The USDA says production in the United States will rise in 2020/21 by 17%. The latest USDA rice report also predicts that exports from the United States will increase and help meet new demand.
Top rice exporting countries. Source: FAO.
Covid-19 Impact on Asia’s Next Planting?
Much of India’s kharif (monsoon season) paddy grows for 25 days, then migrant laborers transplant seedlings to the field. Many migrant laborers in rice growing states like Punjab returned home for the lockdown. India’s transportation system is reopening slowly. Some analysts feel mechanised rice transplanters, available as a service, are a necessary alternative to the missing laborers. Whether many of India’s farmers can afford mechanized rice transplanters, or whether machines are appropriate for the fields, is unknown.
Mechanized rice transplanting. Source: IRRI.
Thailand has not reported any issues with rice transplanting, even though much production relies on laborers from nearby countries. Cambodia, hard hit by drought, lost over 40,000 acres of paddy land in the last year, and Mekong River waters are at historic lows. Subsistence farmers are the country’s primary rice producers; they do not rely much on migrant labor. In general, migrant labor issues also do not impact Viet Nam’s rice production.
Myanmar (Burma), however, is a different story. Monsoon rice accounts for 80% of its paddy production. Migrant laborer groups transplant much of Myanmar’s rice. They move from farm to farm together, going to new zones furhter north as the season moves.
With travel curtailed, and with government loans and microfinance suspended, many Myanmar farmers cannot afford this season’s planting. Fertilizer and improved seeds may be too pricey. Migrant groups for transplanting may not be available and may be too expensive to hire. Some local experts fear there could be severe food shortages in parts of the country in six months.
Overall USDA Rice Outlook
Most United States rice producers seed aerially or drill or broadcast seeds, making labor less of a planting issue. Asia’s labor issues regarding rice transplantation didn’t seem to affect the analysis in USDA’s May 14th report. The report sees a 31.5 million cwt increase in US rice production and 2 million more tons of US rice exports.
Internationally, the USDA predicts the second-best rice crop on record, with production up 2%. China,Thailand, Myanmar, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka will show production increases, the report said.
The USDA wrote the report when rice planting season in key Asian regions barely had started. We may have to wait until the June 15th–or even August 15th–rice report to see any impact from Asia’s migrant labor and credit shortages on USDA predictions.
Oil’s price drop, changing weather patterns, armed conflicts, and COVID-19 may bring the worst humanitarian crisis since World War II by the end of 2020.
“[W]e could be facing multiple famines of biblical proportions within a short few months,” David Beasley recently told the UN Security Council. Beasley, Executive Director of World Food Programme, predicted a worst-case scenario of famine in about three dozen countries.
Before COVID-19, an estimated 821 million people were classified by the UN and other agencies as food insecure. Another 135 million were on the edge of starvation. Because of the coronavirus, a further 130 million people are predicted to join that 135 million in 2020.
The fall in oil prices undermines the economies and budgets of many governments, including Venezuela, Nigeria, and Angola. Oil constitutes half of Russia’s exports, while Sudan also is heavily oil dependent.
Petroleum makes up 98.8% of exports in South Sudan. The country, often plagued by armed conflict and currently facing famine, could face more destabilization.
Changing Weather Patterns Already Causing Hunger
In the Horn of Africa, increased rains have brought massive locusts swarms that are destroying potential harvests. Farmers in Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia and Sudan already face field damage. The worst locust outbreak in 70 years, these new pests also threaten agriculture in the Arabian Penninsula, Iran, and Pakistan
Flooding in Somalia. Photo: WFP.
At the same time, several years of increasing drought is bringing hunger to Honduras, Somalia, Zimbabwe and other countries. Combined with a decrease in foreign remittances, increased drought and/or increased flooding have made finding food a challenge for many.
Climate change also may be depressing key nutrients in crops, making malnutrition more likely. Researchers at Stanford University found that zinc and copper is decreasing in crops due to increased carbon dioxide.
Covid-19 Undermines Agriculture Output
COVID-19 is hampering agriculture on both the export and subsistence levels. International supply chains for fertilizers and other inputs have been disrupted. Farmers who are ill cannot work their fields effectively.
Simultaneously, COVID-19 is handicapping the locust fight in countries like Ethiopia, Uganda and Sudan. With lockdowns, farmers and workers are afraid to go to their fields. Pesticides, caught in supply chain tangles, are harder to find.
Concerns over Markets, Prices, and Impacts
The responses by markets and countries to the various crises may also have an impact on famine in the coming months. Impositions of export bans and tarrifs impact the global food supply chain.
“The worst that can happen is that governments restrict the flow of food,” Maximo Torero, the chief economist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), said to the Guardian newspaper
Viet Nam briefly limited rice exports. Photo: WFP.
At the same time, the FAO director of emergency operations, Dominique Burgeon, warned of potential price spikes in food. These lead to unrest in the Middle East and North Africa in 2007 and 2008.
“This is a matter of international solidarity, and humanity, but also a matter of global security…” Burgeon old the paper.
The western United States and northern Mexico are in a megadrought. Scientists from NASA and four universities agree this could be as bad as any drought ever known. Ever.
Democratic Senator Gayord Nelson and Representative Pete McCloskey, a conservative Republican, founded Earth Day. Outwardly opposite, both men loved the outdoors. Each was against the Viet Nam war, but McCloskey had two Purple Hearts from his marine service.
They hired a young environmental activist, Dennis Hayes, to make Earth Day a nationwide event.
Dennis Hayes at the Environmental Teach-in. Credit: Adirondack Council.
Hayes recruited nationwide for 85 other organizers, who built on a growing public consciousness about air and water pollution. They also tapped the enthusiasm and skills of the anti-Vietnam War movement.
On April 20, 1970, around 20 million Americans rallied, demonstrated, and attended Earth Day teach-ins. At the time, this was about 10% of the country’s population.
Earth Day’s First Achievements
Even President Nixon and his wife Pat planted a tree for the first Earth Day. Credit: White House Photo Office.
President Richard Nixon already saw political gain in the environmental movement. On New Years Day, he had signed the National Environmental Protection Act. By December, the President had established the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). At the end of his presidency, Nixon was putting the environment on his diplomatic agenda and including it in NATO talks.
The Ford and Carter administrations also pushed forward in passing environmental legislation, and the 1970s saw immense progress at both the federal and state levels. December 1970’s Clean Air Act mandated that the EPA set standards for air quality, while 1972’s Water Pollution Control Act addressed wastewater. Because of these laws and others like the Endangered Species Act, states started environmental oversight agencies.
Earth Day’s Ongoing Legacy
Earth Day quickly became a global event, and it sparked other environmental efforts. Greenpeace, National Resource Defense Council, and other groups began soon after. They joined efforts with older environmental organizations like World Wide Fund for Nature to develop more co-ordinated and effective advocacy.
The Himalayas seen April 4 from Pathankot, in India’s Punjab. Photo: Twitter.
Residents of northern India can now see the Himalayan snows, almost 100 miles away, thanks to decreased air pollution on the Indian sub-continent.
“We can see the snow-covered mountains clearly from our roofs. And not just that, stars are visible at night. I have never seen anything like this in recent times,” Mr Sant Balbir Singh Seechewa, an Indian environmental activist from Punjab, told the Associated Press.
The sudden appearance on the horizon of the famous mountains also was noted in Pakistan. The Himalayan range extends through Nepal, India, Pakistan, and China.
Photo source: Twitter.
Why Is There Decreased Air Pollution?
Decreased air pollution in many countries is attributed to Covid-19 lockdowns. One measure of air pollution is how much particulate matter is present. Air pollution is also analyzed by the amounts found of carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, and other substances.
India’s Central Pollution Control Board found that carbon monoxide readings decreased as much as 67% in some areas once a nationwide Covid-19 lockdown began. Nitrous oxide readings plummeted up to 74% in heavily trafficked parts of New Delhi.
The amount of PM2.5 particles in the air fell by approximately 20% at the beginning of April in Kathmandu. Nepal’s capital is the jumping off point for most of that nation’s mountain-driven tourist trade.
Eager trekkers, Mt. Everest expeditions, and much-needed tourist dollars normally flood into the country during spring climbing season. This April and May, however, will be different.
Even with decreased air pollution and improved mountain visibility, both Nepal and China cancelled all spring climbing permits for Mt. Everest because of Covid-19. Despite the importance of tourism to the country, Nepal also has cancelled on-arrival tourist visas until April 30th.
More than 1.17 million tourists arrived in the country in 2018. Most take advantage of outdoor and environmental activities. Tourism accounts for around 7.5% of Nepal’s GDP, and almost 3% of employment in the country.
What Does It All Mean?
Decreased air pollution, thanks to lockdowns, does not suggest that climate change will end anytime soon. Instead, it shows how much human behavior influences the natural world, including weather. Both the record warm summer in Australia that killed a billion animals and one of the warmest winters ever for much of North America have eased for the moment. However, in the longer term pollution could continue to ignite global weather extremes.
HELPING YOU MAKE THE BEST INVESTMENT DECISIONS BASED ON THE WEATHER
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