The grain market has, of course, been in the gutter for years. This was brought on by the Trade War with China, ethanol plants closing due to low crude oil prices, COVID-19, and record crops around the world. However, all of that could be changing. Above you can see a picture of a heat dome you. Will it last and bring down the excellent crop conditions that have been a blessing for Midwest farmers? I believe so, as I have been telling clients forthe last few weeks.
However, the greatest risk for farmers will be over southern Illinois, Missouri, southern Iowa into possibly eastern Nebraska and especially Kansas and Texas heading deeper into July. The rim of fire rains within the dome will prevent major crop damage (for now) over at least the northern Midwest. My biggest concern right now is for cotton farmers in Texas and perhaps soybean and corn farmers in the southern 20-35% of the belt in the next few weeks.
However, in the short term, there will be a few chances for rains for some Iowa and Illinois farmers over the next 5 days. Warm-night-time low temperatures, however, can nip corn yields at a critical time following these rains.
Radar mid a.m. July 9th–more storms like these are likely over the weekend before big time -mid-late July heat
One main force in the grain markets this time of the year is, of course, summer weather. We have the potential for an explosion in grain prices this summer. That depends on “if” a “hot dome” (high-pressure ridge in the atmosphere) parks itself over the Midwest grain belt. Some important rains are forecast for parts of Iowa, Nebraska, and the western corn belt today and again over the weekend. However, the high temperatures a dome could bring in about 8 days are unwelcome for southern Midwest corn and soybean crops. The Texas cotton crop could in jeopardy as well.
Will these temperatures verify and what is the longer-range outlook? We use special computer models to outguess other weather forecast firms.
Potential for Summer Weather Problems
My latest gold report to clients has been talking about extreme heat and potential for summer weather problems. These would arise if:
and other teleconnections from my Climate Predict program below stay strong. (Climate Predict is our exclusive long-range in-house weather forecasting program for global commodities.)
The letters (AO, NINO34, etc.) you see above the map are teleconnections around the world. They represent factors like sea ice, La Nina, and global ocean temperatures. Analyzing them gives us an upper hand in forecasting global commodity weather, as well as price analysis and yield. They show the potential is there for some crop problems, especially later this summer.
So what is my forecast for the summer? Sign up for a 2 week FREE trial period and I will help educate you on how to trade everything from natural gas to grains, coffee, and cotton, on the weather. If you are a farmer, having first-hand knowledge “before the crowd” can help you make much more accurate long-term hedging decisions with your crops.
Droughts and fires in the Amazon, Australia and Indonesia this year have scorched millions of acres of timber and farmland. Billions of animals died. This has motivated a new group of climate change advocates who are trying to make a difference in the world. They are planting millions of trees around the world. Scientists among them are developing new carbon capture techniques. Some are teaching their peers about mindfulness when discarding, or emitting carbon. Hopefully, this year’s weather disasters will spark more immediate climate action.
One region where my accuracy has been proven is in long-range weather forecast program for the Amazon of Brazil. Another was in west Africa’s cocoa areas. The dots on the map below represent zones where present teleconnections make it easiest to predict weather, months in advance. El Nino, lack of sea ice, ocean temperatures thousands of miles away, etc. can influence global climate)
Now, meteorologists, weather nuts, hedge funds, insurance companies, and so forth, can learn how to use our CLIMATE PREDICT lite version here.
Climate Predict Lite is designed to improve long range weather forecasts for farmers and businesses. The objective is to plan and prepare for favorable weather or disaster mitigation many months before the inevitable events occur.
It has turned very wet in Brazil the last month or so. After a 3-5 year northern drought, Climate Predict (below) forecasts above normal Amazon rainfall trends from March through May. Which commodity markets could this impact?
You can subscribe now to learn more about my long-range forecasts and how to use weather in trading commodities.
Jim Roemer
MARCH-MAY RAINFALL TREND FORECASTS BASED ON GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS
The image above shows the record warmth across the globe, not only in the USA.
The low solar cycle phenomenon that many “climate change deniers” keep preaching was suppose to deliver a cold northern Hemispheric winter. The reality, this could not be further from the truth–the exact opposite has happened. Record warmth has not only invaded Australia, but much of the US this winter and Europe will be seeing their warmest February in years.
“The Dalton Minimum was a period of major glacier expansion–even snow in June in New York City giving the Farmer’s Almanac its reputation. Many NON believers in Climate Change continue to point to periods of severe cold weather in 2019-2020. This is because the sun is entering the lowest period of sunspots (storms) since the early 1800’s. However, in my view, climate change and melting sea ice if offsetting the low solar activity”–Jim Roemer
The record warm winter has been a blessing for consumers worrying about high electricity bills. It is also been a tremendous trading opportunity for bearish trading in the natural gas market.
Low solar activity is suppose to cause what we call a negative NAO index? Instead, the NAO index has been positive this winter, responsible for the warm US and European winter. But at least some of this in my opinion is related to Global Warming and man-made CO2 emissions.
“The blue (cold) weather pattern over the Arctic this winter, resulted in a +NAO index keeping all of the cold at the North Pole. This could actually act to increase Arctic Sea ice in the short term, but in the long term, that remains to be seen”—Roemer
While warm winter weather has certainly had benefits for consumers and commodity traders in the heating oil and natural gas market, there is much more important, “alarming” concern about the health of our planet.
“For millions of years, Arctic sea ice has expanded and retracted in a rhythmic dance with the summer sun. Humans evolved in this icy world, and civilization relied on it for climatic, ecological, and political stability. But the world creeps ever closer to a future without ice. Last year, new reports documented how record Arctic warmth is rapidly eroding sea ice, and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change detailed the manifold impacts from declining sea ice in a Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. As the northern sea ice declines, the world must unite to preserve what remains of the Arctic.
The National Snow and Ice Data Center reported that last year’s minimum Arctic sea ice extent was the second lowest on record. Similarly, the Polar Science Center found that 2019 ended with the second lowest Arctic sea ice volume on record. The sea ice is now 40% smaller than it was 40 years ago, and the remaining ice is younger, thinner, and more temporary. Arctic summers could become mostly ice-free in 30 years, and possibly sooner if current trends continue.
Although most people have never seen the sea ice, its effects are never far away. By reflecting sunlight, Arctic ice acts as Earth’s air conditioner. Once dark water replaces brilliant ice, Earth could warm substantially, equivalent to the warming triggered by the additional release of a trillion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The ice also determines who gets rain. Loss of Arctic sea ice can make it rain in Spain, dry out Scandinavian hydropower, and set California ablaze. And declining sea ice threatens wildlife, from the iconic polar bear to algae that grow beneath the sea ice, supporting an abundance of marine life.
Unfortunately, the sea ice conceals not just algae, but also 90 billion barrels of oil and 1.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas that neighboring countries would like to claim. If extracted and burned, these fossil fuels would exacerbate climate change greatly”
Most recently, Antarctica reached its highest summer temperature ever recorded (some 21 C–70 degrees F). According to the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO), temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula have risen by almost 3C over the past 50 years, and that about 87% of the glaciers along its west coast have “retreated” in that time.
Brazilian scientist Carlos Schaefer told AFP they had “never seen a temperature this high in Antarctica”.
The bottom line—-With the warming arctic and Antarctica any prolonged, sustained cold period is not in the cards.
Over the last two years the combination of an occasional weak El Nino signal in the western Pacific, combined with CLIMATE CHANGE and the warming oceans have been a partial factor in the historical droughts and forest fires that have threatened millions of animals in Australia and lowered crops, such as wheat and cotton, for the 2nd straight years. Drought are not unusual in Australia, but the intensity of the persistent heat and dangers to wildlife, are.
Ocean temperatures are warming over Indonesia where drought has also persisted and threatened crops there, as well. It is a terrible, depressing scene in Australia. One that brings constant tears to my eyes. However, the slowly decaying positive Indian Dipole, combined with the MJO could finally offer some relief in the next week or so.
One of the most important teleconnections that I look at to forecast weather for tropical commodities, is the Indian Dipole.
The index has been in the positive phase, again, also responsible for droughts and record heat in Australia. However, my long range weather forecast program CLIMATEPREDICT, shows how, historically, whenever there is extreme heat with a positive IOD and El Nino signal in the western Pacific, there tends to be a return to normal to above normal rainfall later in January and February in southern and eastern Australia.
January of 1973 was one year with a positive Indian Dipole and an even stronger El Nino signal than we have today.
While only one case, in 1973 follow a hot month for Australia, the Indian Dipole weakened and it turned quite wet as CLIMATEPREDICT shows below for many similar cases. Again, the situation this year is much more dire than 1973 or any other year for that matter. I believe this severity is at least partly related to CLIMATE CHANGE and the warming oceans.
Depending on the Indian Dipole and if the western Pacific and weak El Nino signal weakens (as some models suggest), this will have major global impacts on many commodities in the months ahead from wheat to cocoa, coffee and sugar with potential positive impacts to production in 2020.
First of all, I recommend that all of you sign up here to receive a few free reports with regard to my views about weather and commodities. Stay tuned for a subscription service I will offering in 2020–Jim Roemer
The WMO argues that sea levels are rising ever faster, ice is melting and “once in a century” heatwaves and floods are now becoming more regular occurrences.
Millions of people were forced from their homes as a result of extreme events such as cyclones, hurricanes and flooding.
WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas: “If we do not take urgent climate action now, then we are heading for a temperature increase of more than 3C by the end of the century, with ever more harmful impacts on human well-being.
The WMO says the warming experienced over the past decade is taking its toll on the natural world. The ice is melting at both poles and sea level rise has accelerated since the start of satellite measurements in 1993.
2019 WAS AGAIN THE WARMEST YEAR EVER
Much of the heat generated by greenhouse gas emissions is going into the oceans, says the WMO. The waters are more acidic as a result and marine heat waves are becoming more common.
As well as hurting nature, the increased heat is also affecting humans, with heat waves posing a particular risk to the elderly.
While El Nino, a positive Indian Dipole (cool ocean temps over Indonesia and warm ocean waters east of Africa), have exacerbated the drought situation in these and other countries, I strongly believe that the warming oceans and climate change is at least as important. Here is a very disturbing video here about the continuous droughts in Honduras.
One key reason why thousands of farmers and citizens are trying to migrate to America, is at least in part due to Climate Change as people look for a better life.
With respect to commodities, one of the reasons for the rally in coffee futures recently, are expectations for lower global supplies and higher demand. After a major bear market in coffee, in part due to the low Brazil Real, crop prospects are coming down in parts of Central America and Indonesia, in part from Climate Change. With respect to Brazil, an easing in a mini drought is a blessing for grain and coffee farmers in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerias, at least for now.
Rainfall the last 6 months has been below normal in Indonesia threatening crops and causing fires. In Australia, there has been 2 years of back to back droughts. This will cause more irrigation problems for crops like cotton and has reduced wheat crops for the 2nd straight year.
I cannot stand how the global warming debate has become so politicized over the years and that the Trump administration and millions of people around the world, “still do not see the hand writing on the wall.” This is getting beyond ridiculous. While one cannot blame every hurricane, drought or flood on Climate Change, there is no question in my mind that the intensities of hurricanes are getting stronger and that droughts and extreme weather more frequent.
I also disagree with many so called “solar cycle”theorists that point to extreme weather and consistent, colder, consistent winters due to record low solar cycles coming up.
Record low sea ice, global warming and weak El Nino Modoki conditions may offset some of the other factors that would normally result in a cold early US winter.
There are too many weather forecast firms out there that should be spreading the word about global warming and not trying to paint a picture that this is only cyclical.
The new report by the WMO (below) are some excerpts, as well as some of my own comments–Jim Roemer
Recent new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report
Atmospheric levels of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) reached the highest ever recorded in human history in 2018, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced in a new report earlier this week.
Why it matters: If the trend continues, as predicted, the impact of climate change will become even more severe, the intergovernmental organization warns. “The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3-5 million years ago,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement accompanying the report.
“Carbon dioxide is the most important long-lived greenhouse gas, with a single molecule lasting in the air for hundreds to around 1,000 years,” science journalist Andrew Freedman has noted for Axios. “The continued buildup of carbon dioxide due to human activities, such as burning fossil fuels for energy, is driving global temperatures up and instigating harmful impacts worldwide.”
By the numbers: TheWMO’s Greenhouse Gas Bulletin reports that globally averaged concentrations of CO2 reached 407.8 parts per million last year. That means for every 1 million molecules of gas in the atmosphere, almost 408 were carbon dioxide.
It’s an increase from 405.5 parts per million (ppm) in 2017. “The increase in CO2 from 2017 to 2018 was very close to that observed from 2016 to 2017 and just above the average over the last decade,” the WMO notes.
Global levels of CO2 crossed the symbolic and significant 400 parts per million benchmark in 2015
Syria and Indonesia Droughts–Just two examples of Climate Change
Prior to 2008, 25% of Syria’s GDP was attributed to agriculture. Over the last 11 years, multiple year droughts have lowered that percentage to less than 8%. This is probably one key reason (water shortages), which have caused political strife and the rise of Isis.
While droughts in Indonesia, Asia and Brazil are nothing new and often enhanced by certain El Nino’s and a warm, positive Indian Dipole, I am convinced that the frequency of such droughts are enhanced by both deforestation of the Amazon and climate change.
The political and social reality that Syria is currently facing is the result of various interconnected factors including religion, political reform, and economics. Recently, climate researchers have begun to analyze the influence that climate may have on world conflict, particularly in Syria. This idea has generated significant media attention. A recent study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences has analyzing how the 2007-2010 drought in Syria acted as a catalyst for today’s intense conflict and extreme refugee situation.
Researcher Colin P. Kelley and his colleagues took a broad approach to this topic by dividing their study into two parts: (1) a comprehensive literature review to describe Syria’s vulnerability to droughts and related historical consequences; and (2) an analysis of last century’s climate trends, and how anthropogenic influences made a scenario such as the 2007-2010 drought more likely to happen in the future.
Source: P. Aguirre, Chicago Policy Review–University of Pittsburg
HELPING YOU MAKE THE BEST INVESTMENT DECISIONS BASED ON THE WEATHER
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