The Latest Global Weather & Commodities News
Prevent plant options for farmers as Midwest flooding continues?
Other than the Trade War tariffs that Trump has put on China, a stronger U.S. dollar and now historical Midwest flooding is a real "triple whammy" for many U.S. grain farmers. What is behind all of this wet weather? It is not just El Nino? Why some point to low solar...
Cocoa prices seeing short covering on El Nino and Swollen Shoot Virus in Ghana
The weather over the next few months will play an important role in the development of the Ghana and Ivory Coast cocoa "main crop", which accounts for more than 60% of world chocolate production. Concerns about disease issues in Ghana and the tail end of an El Nino...
Bull market in grains inspired by flooding and some global areas of dryness
After 5 years of a global surplus of grain crops, brought on by record U.S. and mostly South American corn and soybean production and swelling world stocks of wheat, the first "real legitimate" weather market in years has developed the last 2 weeks. An earlier blog of...
El Nino weakening. Where are the present global weather extremes?
Many commodities have been in the tank due to a combination of renewed Trade War concerns with China and a growing glut for such commodities as corn, wheat, soybeans, coffee and others. Global weather patterns have been mostly beneficial to agricultural interests over...
Midwest corn planting to see planting delays. Comparisons to 1993
The near historical Midwest flooding and snow melt has offered a glimmer of hope to farmers and grain traders, that perhaps the corn market would bottom and head higher this spring. However, great South American weather, combined with large corn and soybean carry over...
More huge snows coming to western ski areas. Solar cycles, Global Warming and El Nino.
There has been much discussion about the incredibly snowy ski season out west, the end of the California drought and potential for severely cold United States winters ahead the next few years due to an extended, upcoming "solar minimum." However, giving the...
Coffee prices hit 13 year low on good Brazil weather and big exports
There are some theories by meteorologists and commodity traders that El Nino can reduce Brazil and other producing countries' coffee production resulting in a surge in prices. However, if this season was any indication, this has been far from the truth. Timely rains,...
Historical Midwest floods: Impacts on agriculture. What is causing it? El Nino or low sunspots?
Thousands of livestock killed and millions of acres flooded in the Midwest and Plain States poses a multi-billion dollar threat to agriculture and other industries. This comes at the worst possible time given the Trump Administration's trade tariff war with China, in...
Record western snows and severe tornado outbreaks. The causes of such volatile weather and what early spring may portend.
Probably the biggest blessing from the winter weather extremes experienced coast to coast this winter, is the end of multi-year California drought. This will go a long way to replenishing California water reserves, critical to farming and many other industries. But...
SOI index tanks, suggesting short-term El Nino conditions but why are many ag commodity prices tanking?
The picture of El Nino type conditions (above) illustrates the falling atmospheric pressures close to Peru and rising surface pressures around Australia. For there to be a full fledged El Nino, these conditions must exist consistently for several months, along with...
Angular Momentum–What is it? Why a weak El Nino signal eased the N. Brazil drought and brought tons of snow to western U.S. ski areas
The information below is a combination of my comments, 35 years of experience forecasting the weather for various U.S. ski areas and excerpts from Tony Crocker's informative ski site: bestsnow.net. CORRELATION BETWEEN EL NINO EVENTS AND SKI WEATHER El Nino/La Nina...
Antarctica is melting three times as fast, compared to a decade ago
New research seems to be coming out all the time about Greenland and Antarctica seeing more rapid melting. Yes, there are occasional intrusions of cold weather, as seen this week across the Midwest and East (Polar Vortex), but when 90% of all "educated" scientists...
El Nino lowered from “likely” to only a “watch”
Huge waves off the California coast; developing dryness for Brazil soybeans and coffee; heavy rains in Argentina following a La Nina type drought a year ago and Australia seeing some of the worst water shortages in over 40 years. These are normally all tell-tale signs...
Here comes the Polar Vortex
The unusual warm start to winter has been due in part to the progression of a weather phenomenon we call the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The map below shows the forecasted movement of the MJO from mid December and one key reason the U.S. winter has been warm so...
What happened to the cold U.S. winter, while Brazil dryness grows for crops?
Back in October, we began exploring the relationship between historically wet eastern United States summers and falls , as well as what we felt would be a very weak El Nino event, plus analog years from our proprietary in house long range weather forecast program...
Hurricanes and Sea Level Rise–Sarasota Jan 25th Climate Change Conference
Last spring, I put out a weather forecast, that I felt that the 2018 hurricane season would be less active than usual. One main reason for this forecast was due to model predictions that El Nino would form, which normally shears out tropical systems before they become...
The parade of storms creating high surf, wind and heavy rains from California to Florida
While hurricane Irma did billions of dollars of damage to Florida a year ago, the coastal areas around Sarasota to Tampa faired far better than initially feared. Worries of billions of dollars of real estate losses around Longboat Key and many other west coast regions...
Crude Oil Collapse, Possible Recession, and Our Nation’s Debt Clock
We produced this item on Dec. 7, 2018 - Jim Roemer Our blogs are almost entirely weather related, discussing commodities and how weather can affect everything from natural gas to coffee, cocoa and the grain market. However, we occasionally cover the realm of...
Cocoa prices collapse on big west African production but could an El Nino type Harmattan jump start prices?
The charts above show a main reason cocoa prices have collapsed--another big production year and ideal weather in countries such as Ivory Coast. But what about the Harmattan Wind? Is there any chance for a rally in cocoa prices. Cocoa History--The Mayan...
The EPO index, natural gas prices, lower global cotton crops, Trade War Truce?
Given the fact that increased OPEC oil production, additional Russian military threats in the Ukraine and the Trade War chess game have been impacting grain, cotton and oil markets for months, natural gas prices have been subjected almost entirely to U.S. weather....
A very cold U.S. winter, but that does not change the longer term prospects of Climate Change
A cold winter is on tap for the United States, but that does not mitigate the long-term effects of a warming planet, rising sea levels, and the destruction of reefs around the globe. While China and other countries are taking measures to adapt to global warming, the...
What will this winter be like and how will stocks, commodities and travel be affected?
There are hedge funds, which are in deep trouble or have gone out of business this month, in part due to the huge volatility in both natural gas and crude oil Natural gas stocks are some 17% below a year ago, and we began telling paid clients in October, about the...
CLIMATECH sees better into the future: The best medium range weather forecast tool for meteorologists
CLIMATECH FORECAST NOV 12TH Email me here for a free one month demo. bestweatherroemer@gmail.com Models aside, we have been forecasting a cold U.S. winter for a while looking at a variety of factors from low solar to a weak El Nino Mokadi and Climatech now...
The California forest fires, Climate Change and how a weak El Nino could enhance a cold and snowy U.S. winter
California forest fires are just another example of climate change. While a cold winter is likely in the cards, this does not change the reality of more extreme weather globally and the fact that the oceans and the entire planet have been warming. Low solar...
Gasoline prices fall with rising supplies of crude but heating oil prices rally ahead of winter
Gasoline stocks have been rising, while heating oil (distillate stocks) tanking. Distillate fuel is used in everything from home heating oil (the biggest concentration is of course in the Northeast), to diesel fuel for trucks, trains and planes. One can see below how...