The Latest Global Weather & Commodities News
The Latest Global Weather & Commodities News
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Corn price collapse, not really surprising and a look at Texas cotton dryness
Many farmers and commodity traders were blind-sided by the incredibly bearish USDA crop report on Monday. However, I have alerted paying clients for nearly 2 weeks that the following fundamentals would potentially result in a bearish August 12th crop report. Even if...
Teleconnections and the need for Midwest August rainfall for corn/soybean crops
There are grave concerns about China not working with Trump (for good reason) to settle the Trade War dispute. These have helped to pressure grain prices again. Many analysts keep talking about millions of acres of corn not planted, thus preventing the planting...
Another frost for Brazil as AAO index tanks. What’s that?
Last Thursday, I began alerting private clients about the AAO index going negative. The implications were to be some frost affecting the wheat crops in southern Brazil and probably the coffee in Parana. At present only about 1% of the Brazil coffee crop is grown in...
El Niño Modoki II–What it is, and is there any hope for a rally in grain or natural gas prices?
Natural gas production has consistently reached new record-high levels in recent months. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects production growth will begin to decelerate in the coming months, but it may take some sustained hot weather to keep natural gas...
Tropical Storm Barry, El Nino Modoki and Energy Markets
New Orleans and Texas are no stranger to hurricanes. Hurricane Katrina in August, 2005 created one of the worst national disasters in history, while two years ago, the city of Houston witnessed more than 30" of rain that temporarily put the nation's refinery capacity...
The Brazilian coffee frost
I began telling clients "quite" early (June 23rd) about the possibility of some frost to Brazil coffee leaves and trees. A lot is still unknown about the effects of this past weekend's frost. Often market moves on frost are psychology. Here is some food for thought,...
European heatwave, wheat, and the recent bull move in coffee
"Where is the next pot of gold in commodities, as I continue to tour European wheat areas?" Roemer The big commodity movers of late have been in the non weather markets in both gold and crude oil. These two markets have been breaking technical resistance due to a...
USDA June crop report and a look at weather and global commodities
USDA report bullish for corn, but more weather issues will be needed to keep the corn market in an uptrend The incessant wet Midwest spring has brought about some of the worst early season US. corn crops ratings in recent memory. Indeed, the USDA has been consistent...
How a positive Indian Dipole and a lingering El Niño signal pose risks for Russian and Australian wheat
About a month ago, I wrote that El Niño bears little correlation between wheat yields and weather (spring and/or summer) in Europe and the Ukraine. However, growing dryness in the easternmost Russian winter wheat areas (and potentially in the spring wheat areas) can...
Prevent plant options for farmers as Midwest flooding continues?
Other than the Trade War tariffs that Trump has put on China, a stronger U.S. dollar and now historical Midwest flooding is a real "triple whammy" for many U.S. grain farmers. What is behind all of this wet weather? It is not just El Nino? Why some point to low solar...
Cocoa prices seeing short covering on El Nino and Swollen Shoot Virus in Ghana
The weather over the next few months will play an important role in the development of the Ghana and Ivory Coast cocoa "main crop", which accounts for more than 60% of world chocolate production. Concerns about disease issues in Ghana and the tail end of an El Nino...
Bull market in grains inspired by flooding and some global areas of dryness
After 5 years of a global surplus of grain crops, brought on by record U.S. and mostly South American corn and soybean production and swelling world stocks of wheat, the first "real legitimate" weather market in years has developed the last 2 weeks. An earlier blog of...
El Nino weakening. Where are the present global weather extremes?
Many commodities have been in the tank due to a combination of renewed Trade War concerns with China and a growing glut for such commodities as corn, wheat, soybeans, coffee and others. Global weather patterns have been mostly beneficial to agricultural interests over...
Midwest corn planting to see planting delays. Comparisons to 1993
The near historical Midwest flooding and snow melt has offered a glimmer of hope to farmers and grain traders, that perhaps the corn market would bottom and head higher this spring. However, great South American weather, combined with large corn and soybean carry over...
More huge snows coming to western ski areas. Solar cycles, Global Warming and El Nino.
There has been much discussion about the incredibly snowy ski season out west, the end of the California drought and potential for severely cold United States winters ahead the next few years due to an extended, upcoming "solar minimum." However, giving the...
Coffee prices hit 13 year low on good Brazil weather and big exports
There are some theories by meteorologists and commodity traders that El Nino can reduce Brazil and other producing countries' coffee production resulting in a surge in prices. However, if this season was any indication, this has been far from the truth. Timely rains,...
Historical Midwest floods: Impacts on agriculture. What is causing it? El Nino or low sunspots?
Thousands of livestock killed and millions of acres flooded in the Midwest and Plain States poses a multi-billion dollar threat to agriculture and other industries. This comes at the worst possible time given the Trump Administration's trade tariff war with China, in...
Record western snows and severe tornado outbreaks. The causes of such volatile weather and what early spring may portend.
Probably the biggest blessing from the winter weather extremes experienced coast to coast this winter, is the end of multi-year California drought. This will go a long way to replenishing California water reserves, critical to farming and many other industries. But...
SOI index tanks, suggesting short-term El Nino conditions but why are many ag commodity prices tanking?
The picture of El Nino type conditions (above) illustrates the falling atmospheric pressures close to Peru and rising surface pressures around Australia. For there to be a full fledged El Nino, these conditions must exist consistently for several months, along with...
Angular Momentum–What is it? Why a weak El Nino signal eased the N. Brazil drought and brought tons of snow to western U.S. ski areas
The information below is a combination of my comments, 35 years of experience forecasting the weather for various U.S. ski areas and excerpts from Tony Crocker's informative ski site: bestsnow.net. CORRELATION BETWEEN EL NINO EVENTS AND SKI WEATHER El Nino/La Nina...
Antarctica is melting three times as fast, compared to a decade ago
New research seems to be coming out all the time about Greenland and Antarctica seeing more rapid melting. Yes, there are occasional intrusions of cold weather, as seen this week across the Midwest and East (Polar Vortex), but when 90% of all "educated" scientists...
El Nino lowered from “likely” to only a “watch”
Huge waves off the California coast; developing dryness for Brazil soybeans and coffee; heavy rains in Argentina following a La Nina type drought a year ago and Australia seeing some of the worst water shortages in over 40 years. These are normally all tell-tale signs...
Here comes the Polar Vortex
The unusual warm start to winter has been due in part to the progression of a weather phenomenon we call the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The map below shows the forecasted movement of the MJO from mid December and one key reason the U.S. winter has been warm so...
What happened to the cold U.S. winter, while Brazil dryness grows for crops?
Back in October, we began exploring the relationship between historically wet eastern United States summers and falls , as well as what we felt would be a very weak El Nino event, plus analog years from our proprietary in house long range weather forecast program...
Hurricanes and Sea Level Rise–Sarasota Jan 25th Climate Change Conference
Last spring, I put out a weather forecast, that I felt that the 2018 hurricane season would be less active than usual. One main reason for this forecast was due to model predictions that El Nino would form, which normally shears out tropical systems before they become...