An iceberg roughly the size and shape of Delaware has broken off of the Larsen C ice shelf. These are not uncommon, but this one is one of the largest ever. Because of its size, it will have to be monitored and tracked to prevent disruption of maritime commerce as it floats further from Antarctica. The breaking off from its shelf can be a part of the natural life cycle. More research must be done to determine whether climate change played any role in this separation.
New Iceberg Map
IMAGE CREDIT: NASA, LANCE/EOSDIS Rapid Response.
Check out this article from Europe’s Space Agency talking about the potential just days before.
BBC also had some great coverage. Play the video below:
Grain prices have taken off, fueled initially by the first bull market in wheat in years. A severe drought in spring wheat areas in North Dakota was the first sign of trouble. Problems in Canada, Australia, and Europe followed. Now, soybean traders are worried about dry conditions developing in the Midwest. Just over 10% of soybeans are grown in the Dakotas. The drought is spreading into Iowa, with hot dry conditions expected over the next few weeks. Moving forward, less moisture on the ground will increase daytime surface heating, allowing for warmer maximum temperatures.
Image Credit: USDA & TropicalTidbits.com
Natural Gas prices have lagged behind the grains, despite some hot weather in the southwest and midwest. The pattern just does not want to push the hottest temperatures in the the Ohio valley and the East Coast. New York, Illinois, and Pennsylvania consume large amounts of natural gas for cooling demand. Therefore, it will take a decent heat wave for natural gas to compete with the grain market.
On your mark, get set, Grain!
The USDA acreage report acted as a ‘starting gun’ last Friday. Analysts forecasted more soybeans planted due to the rain delays in corn. However, the report showed the opposite occured, with corn acreage increasing instead of soybeans compared to expectations. That news, combined with the weather threats allowed soybeans to regain a month’s worth of declining prices in just a matter of minutes.
SOURCE: Barchart
We mentioned this grain scenario to our free newsletter subscribers back in May. The commodity ETN:JJG is comprised of wheat, corn, soybeans. We knew that if our weather forecast verified, that some fireworks in one or more of these markets could occur. The ETN price has already reached 4 month highs. In the coming weeks, traders will want to know how long this dry, hot weather will stick around in the Midwest. If wheat & soybean conditions continue to drop, so will the end-of-year yield/production estimates. Any shift in the ridge could mean a big change for corn and soybeans. For more on if grain prices will go higher, email subscriptionsbestweather@gmail.com
We sent out or newsletter to our subscribers May 23rd, when July natural gas prices were still at $3.40MMBtu. Our forecast called for below normal temperatures mainly in the late month of June, limiting cooling demand. Our bearish “score” for natural gas reflected this forecast. Prices have fallen $0.30 MMBtu down to near $3.1 MMBtu since then, with our forecast verifying. The composite forecast for June given in the newsletter:
Climatech backs up our research
Our research combined current SSTs, statistical analysis of teleconnections and other boundary conditions to forecast the most likely scenario. In house, most Climatech composites matched this research, giving us more confidence in our forecast. Our Climatech subscribers saw these below normal temperatures for the eastern two-thirds, too. Unless something drastic occurs, it seems like it will verify nicely. The first part of June will likely be warm with a cool finish, but ample stocks of natural gas will probably prevent any major rally.
What’s the forecast for summer? There are signs of hotter July weather that may put a floor in prices, but for June we have a bearish stance.
Our newsletter and Climatech subscribers also know our forecast for the July and August. They will be watching intently to see if we go three for three and if natural gas reacts.
CLIMATECH above shows (7) areas in Europe that could have a hot June and potential crop stress next month. In combining the most important global teleconnections, notice how in some areas, the prediction is for temperatures in Europe to be as much as 12.6 degrees above normal
Wheat prices have been in the doldrums for years. However, a lower U.S. crop brought on by reduced acreage and the potential for continued severe weather and flooding that may lower wheat quality, could keep prices from falling very far.
At the same time, we are seeing the vegetative health index turn a bit dry in parts of Europe and Russia. While not a disaster yet, our exclusive CLIMATECH program is predicting areas of warmth and dryness in some European wheat areas next month based on various teleconnections around the globe.
Areas of dryness (orange and red), need to be watched (above). If we have other weather issues around the world, other than wet U.S. weather hurting some crops, then wheat prices would take note
The best long-range weather forecasting tool in the industry, you can get a FREE demo but going to the web site Climatech, Shown below is our June forecast for below normal rainfall in parts of Europe due, not just to pre-El Nino conditions ,but a host of other global teleconnections.
Green bonds are relatively new and allow for conscientious investing The issuer needs capital to move forward. The holder receives interest and/or the principal. It is just like any other bond. However, they are tax-exempt bonds that fund environmentally sustainable projects. Green bond investments have grown more than tenfold from 2013, to an estimated $150 billion for 2017. With a B America!
Green Bonds for Energy Development
For me, the first type of project that comes to mind is renewable energy development, like solar panels and wind turbines. The state of Hawaii issued $150 million in green bonds in 2014 for such investment. However, there are many other projects, like pollution mitigation, energy efficient upgrades to infrastructure, and nature conservation initiatives.
Climate Change Adaption
Investments that may unfortunately become more commonly required are climate change adaptation ventures. Sea level rise may require municipalities to issue bonds that fund flood prevention systems. The city of Miami, FL is currently spending $100 million to raise roads and redirect water on La Gorce Island. Other climate change adaption projects could involve the migration of farms to more suitable lands. We are in an age of increasing social responsibility and need for sustainability. Green bonds provide an excellent service to both the holder and the issuer.
Another major severe weather outbreak is likely in the Plains and Midwest today. More could occur in the days and weeks ahead.
Huge South American crops are coming which we predicted months ago. This, combined with worries over Trump and Brazil’s currency, are keeping grains in a major down-trend. Soybean prices are also under pressure due to the fact that acreage switches from corn and soybeans are likely the next few weeks (too much rain for the Midwest). This may encourage flooded corn acres to go over to soybeans.
Source Allendale.com
“Corn Crop in Illinois will continue to suffer from heavy rains into late May. This will be the case in several other states. Usually, “rain makes grain” and is bearish corn and beans in the spring. However, another week or two of this type of weather may get noticed in the corn market (too much rain)”—Roemer
There have been 2 major spring corn rallies on severe Midwest Flooding that I can recall. One was in 2008 and of course the historical floods of 1993 that sent the Mississippi to the highest level in 150 years was the other. Much of Europe and Russia are enjoying an improvement in their weather benefitting the wheat crop. If it were not for the fact that, wheat prices would take note of more severe weather (see map) the next few days. The U.S. wheat crop will continue to come down and corn planting and early germination will be a problem heading into late May.
For more updates about global commodities including the wet Midwest and Southern Spring and our ideas about the grain market, please subscribe for FREE (for now).
HELPING YOU MAKE THE BEST INVESTMENT DECISIONS BASED ON THE WEATHER
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