Over the last two years the combination of an occasional weak El Nino signal in the western Pacific, combined with CLIMATE CHANGE and the warming oceans have been a partial factor in the historical droughts and forest fires that have threatened millions of animals in Australia and lowered crops, such as wheat and cotton, for the 2nd straight years. Drought are not unusual in Australia, but the intensity of the persistent heat and dangers to wildlife, are.
Ocean temperatures are warming over Indonesia where drought has also persisted and threatened crops there, as well. It is a terrible, depressing scene in Australia. One that brings constant tears to my eyes. However, the slowly decaying positive Indian Dipole, combined with the MJO could finally offer some relief in the next week or so.
One of the most important teleconnections that I look at to forecast weather for tropical commodities, is the Indian Dipole.
The index has been in the positive phase, again, also responsible for droughts and record heat in Australia. However, my long range weather forecast program CLIMATEPREDICT, shows how, historically, whenever there is extreme heat with a positive IOD and El Nino signal in the western Pacific, there tends to be a return to normal to above normal rainfall later in January and February in southern and eastern Australia.
January of 1973 was one year with a positive Indian Dipole and an even stronger El Nino signal than we have today.
While only one case, in 1973 follow a hot month for Australia, the Indian Dipole weakened and it turned quite wet as CLIMATEPREDICT shows below for many similar cases. Again, the situation this year is much more dire than 1973 or any other year for that matter. I believe this severity is at least partly related to CLIMATE CHANGE and the warming oceans.
Depending on the Indian Dipole and if the western Pacific and weak El Nino signal weakens (as some models suggest), this will have major global impacts on many commodities in the months ahead from wheat to cocoa, coffee and sugar with potential positive impacts to production in 2020.
First of all, I recommend that all of you sign up here to receive a few free reports with regard to my views about weather and commodities. Stay tuned for a subscription service I will offering in 2020–Jim Roemer
The WMO argues that sea levels are rising ever faster, ice is melting and “once in a century” heatwaves and floods are now becoming more regular occurrences.
Millions of people were forced from their homes as a result of extreme events such as cyclones, hurricanes and flooding.
WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas: “If we do not take urgent climate action now, then we are heading for a temperature increase of more than 3C by the end of the century, with ever more harmful impacts on human well-being.
The WMO says the warming experienced over the past decade is taking its toll on the natural world. The ice is melting at both poles and sea level rise has accelerated since the start of satellite measurements in 1993.
2019 WAS AGAIN THE WARMEST YEAR EVER
Much of the heat generated by greenhouse gas emissions is going into the oceans, says the WMO. The waters are more acidic as a result and marine heat waves are becoming more common.
As well as hurting nature, the increased heat is also affecting humans, with heat waves posing a particular risk to the elderly.
While El Nino, a positive Indian Dipole (cool ocean temps over Indonesia and warm ocean waters east of Africa), have exacerbated the drought situation in these and other countries, I strongly believe that the warming oceans and climate change is at least as important. Here is a very disturbing video here about the continuous droughts in Honduras.
One key reason why thousands of farmers and citizens are trying to migrate to America, is at least in part due to Climate Change as people look for a better life.
With respect to commodities, one of the reasons for the rally in coffee futures recently, are expectations for lower global supplies and higher demand. After a major bear market in coffee, in part due to the low Brazil Real, crop prospects are coming down in parts of Central America and Indonesia, in part from Climate Change. With respect to Brazil, an easing in a mini drought is a blessing for grain and coffee farmers in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerias, at least for now.
Rainfall the last 6 months has been below normal in Indonesia threatening crops and causing fires. In Australia, there has been 2 years of back to back droughts. This will cause more irrigation problems for crops like cotton and has reduced wheat crops for the 2nd straight year.
I cannot stand how the global warming debate has become so politicized over the years and that the Trump administration and millions of people around the world, “still do not see the hand writing on the wall.” This is getting beyond ridiculous. While one cannot blame every hurricane, drought or flood on Climate Change, there is no question in my mind that the intensities of hurricanes are getting stronger and that droughts and extreme weather more frequent.
I also disagree with many so called “solar cycle”theorists that point to extreme weather and consistent, colder, consistent winters due to record low solar cycles coming up.
Record low sea ice, global warming and weak El Nino Modoki conditions may offset some of the other factors that would normally result in a cold early US winter.
There are too many weather forecast firms out there that should be spreading the word about global warming and not trying to paint a picture that this is only cyclical.
The new report by the WMO (below) are some excerpts, as well as some of my own comments–Jim Roemer
Recent new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report
Atmospheric levels of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) reached the highest ever recorded in human history in 2018, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced in a new report earlier this week.
Why it matters: If the trend continues, as predicted, the impact of climate change will become even more severe, the intergovernmental organization warns. “The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3-5 million years ago,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement accompanying the report.
“Carbon dioxide is the most important long-lived greenhouse gas, with a single molecule lasting in the air for hundreds to around 1,000 years,” science journalist Andrew Freedman has noted for Axios. “The continued buildup of carbon dioxide due to human activities, such as burning fossil fuels for energy, is driving global temperatures up and instigating harmful impacts worldwide.”
By the numbers: TheWMO’s Greenhouse Gas Bulletin reports that globally averaged concentrations of CO2 reached 407.8 parts per million last year. That means for every 1 million molecules of gas in the atmosphere, almost 408 were carbon dioxide.
It’s an increase from 405.5 parts per million (ppm) in 2017. “The increase in CO2 from 2017 to 2018 was very close to that observed from 2016 to 2017 and just above the average over the last decade,” the WMO notes.
Global levels of CO2 crossed the symbolic and significant 400 parts per million benchmark in 2015
Syria and Indonesia Droughts–Just two examples of Climate Change
Prior to 2008, 25% of Syria’s GDP was attributed to agriculture. Over the last 11 years, multiple year droughts have lowered that percentage to less than 8%. This is probably one key reason (water shortages), which have caused political strife and the rise of Isis.
While droughts in Indonesia, Asia and Brazil are nothing new and often enhanced by certain El Nino’s and a warm, positive Indian Dipole, I am convinced that the frequency of such droughts are enhanced by both deforestation of the Amazon and climate change.
The political and social reality that Syria is currently facing is the result of various interconnected factors including religion, political reform, and economics. Recently, climate researchers have begun to analyze the influence that climate may have on world conflict, particularly in Syria. This idea has generated significant media attention. A recent study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences has analyzing how the 2007-2010 drought in Syria acted as a catalyst for today’s intense conflict and extreme refugee situation.
Researcher Colin P. Kelley and his colleagues took a broad approach to this topic by dividing their study into two parts: (1) a comprehensive literature review to describe Syria’s vulnerability to droughts and related historical consequences; and (2) an analysis of last century’s climate trends, and how anthropogenic influences made a scenario such as the 2007-2010 drought more likely to happen in the future.
Source: P. Aguirre, Chicago Policy Review–University of Pittsburg
Background of what is going on in the Amazon and the Brazil Economy
Often referred to as “the planet’s lungs” because it provides 20% of the world’s oxygen, the Amazon rainforest has been ablaze for weeks. You can see a disturbing video about it, here
While deforestation in the Brazil rain forest is nothing new, satellite photos and first hand reports reveal the situation is rapidly worsening. The main reason is the Brazil government and farmers want to expand cattle, soybeans and coffee acreage. But this is at the expense of destroying millions more acres of trees that typically absorb carbon dioxide and emit oxygen--“The Lungs of our Earth!” . See an interesting article about Brazil’s goal to expand it exports of cattle
According to 2017 statistics, Over the past 25 years, the agribusiness sector in Brazil has grown consistently, reaching a $80 billion trade surplus in 2017, while all other sectors combined accumulated a $55 billion deficit. In the same year, agricultural products accounted for approximately 45-48 percent of total exports and 20-22 percent of GDP according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Food Supply. Brazilian agribusiness is vital to Brazil’s economic outlook.
Brazil is today among the three most significant producers and exporters of food commodities in the world, and is the only tropical country among the leading agricultural producers. Brazilian meat is exported to more than 190 countries worldwide. The country produces four times as much beef as it did in the 1970s, and three times as much pork. Brazil is also the world’s leading exporter of coffee, sugar, orange juice, soybean, poultry, and sugarcane-based ethanol.
Given, the dismal state of the Brazil economy, they want to be the #1 supplier in the world in many agricultural commodities. Hence, their need to expand the production of crops and livestock.
Satellite photos show the extent of Amazon devastation
Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE) has so far detected 39,601 fires this year in the Amazon, as reported by The New York Times. While it is currently the dry season in this region, INPE reports that there has been a 79 percent increase in fires from 2018 during the same period.
“Not so long ago it was thought that Amazonian forests and other tropical rainforest regions were completely immune to fires thanks to the high moisture content of the undergrowth beneath the protection of the canopy tree cover. But the severe droughts of 1997-98, 2005, 2010, and currently a large number of wildfires across northern Brazil have forever changed this perception,” Carlos Peres, a biologist at University of East Anglia, said in a statement.
According to CITYLAB, “The forces behind this carbon catastrophe alive are manifold, and human-made: a combination of anthropogenic climate change, which catalyzed three once-in-a-century droughts in the past 15 years; a land-ravenous cattle industry, fueled by the West’s endless appetite for cheap beef; and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who’s rolled back environmental protections and allowed loggers to set fires with impunity. (An avid deforester, Bolsonaro has jokingly nicknamed himself “Captain Chainsaw.”) The weather has been dry, but INPE scientists told CNN that in all, 99 percent of the fires were the result of human actions, “either on purpose or by accident.”
African Dust and Carbon Monoxide from Amazon could affect the Hurricane season
The weak El Nino we had has been weakening even further. When this happens, shear in the Atlantic lessens, which can enhance the fall hurricane season. We have been seeing this happening in late August and early September. The first image you see shows the Ocean heat content and why Florida and perhaps part of the east coast this fall, could be under the gun from hurricanes.
There are also some tropical waves and potential hurricanes coming off the coast of Africa as we head deeper into September. However, it is possible that these storms will be less intense than the last couple of seasons for the Gulf Coast, including Texas and areas to the south such as Mexico, etc. due to African dust and dryness moving into the Atlantic from the Amazon. The images both above and below show the effects of Carbon from the Amazon and dust from West Africa.
Forest Fires in Amazon could enhance drought conditions for some agricultural commodities, but reduce hurricanes for Texas/Mexico
My in house weather forecasting program CLIMATECH (below), uses teleconnections such as El Nino/La Nina, and ocean temperatures and weather patterns thousands of miles away to predict weather months in advance.
CLIMATECH reveals a bit more about the dry conditions over the Amazon, prior to hurricane Dorian. You can see for the month of August how dry it has been in the Atlantic (red=below normal rainfall), and that dryness may protect the southern Gulf, Cuba, Puerto Rica and potentially the Yucatan peninsula from hurricanes this fall.
The effects of deforestation on climate, in my opinion, is at least as influential as solar activity on the sun. However, rarely anyone ever talks about it. The dialogue should have started years ago and more pressure needs to be put on countries like Brazil to foster much greater concerns about the health of humanity and our planet.
The next question for commodity traders will be, whether Brazil coffee and soybean regions will see drier spring/summer weather that could take some of these markets out of the doldrums later this year. Right now, the world is awash in both soybeans, coffee and for that matter, many other commodities. Gold and silver have been the lone shining light in the commodity world, brought on by global economic fears and low interest rates in Europe and the United States.
Brazil being one of the top three biggest producers of agricultural commodities in the world, could see their mission of expanding its share of the world agricultural market “back fire”. This could happen if carbon, dust and debris from these forest fires builds a potential dry ridge this fall and winter (Brazil spring/summer), which some computer models are beginning to show.
The map above shows the potential mid September jet stream pattern over South America. The ridge (H) you see is what we call a “blocking high pressure system” that potentially could reduce rainfall heading into the Brazil spring and summer for some crops. There is much debate and concern that the demise of the Brazilian rain forest saps water vapor out of the atmosphere and can potentially threaten crop production. However, there are other climatic factors too that can influence global weather patterns. These are the demise of El Nino and climatic patterns thousands of miles a way. Stay tuned, because if commodity prices such as soybeans, coffee or sugar bottom in the next few months from production issues in Brazil, it could be due to the destruction of the Amazon, more than anything else.–Jim Roemer
New research seems to be coming out all the time about Greenland and Antarctica seeing more rapid melting. Yes, there are occasional intrusions of cold weather, as seen this week across the Midwest and East (Polar Vortex), but when 90% of all “educated” scientists agree about this problem, action needs to be taken seriously to save our planet.
Here are some excerpts (below) from a recent article in the NY Times.
Between 60 and 90 percent of the world’s fresh water is frozen in the ice sheets of Antarctica, a continent roughly the size of the United States and Mexico combined. If all that ice melted, it would be enough to raise the world’s sea levels by roughly 200 feet.
Antarctica is not the only contributor to sea level rise. Greenland lost an estimated 1 trillion tons of ice between 2011 and 2014. And as oceans warm, their waters expand and occupy more space, also raising sea levels. The melting ice and warming waters have all been primarily driven by human emissions of greenhouse gases.
There is growing Chaos in Germany as one of the worst droughts in more than 100 years is threatening several industries and could have economic impacts. Record low water levels on the Rhine can affect. One of the industries being affected is Chemicals. In 2017, the Rhine transports 186 million metric tons of commodity traffic. This is about half of all traffic in Europe and Chemical shipments made up 11% of all traffic last year. Companies such as BASF stand to be affected and crops such as wheat could be in jeopardy again for a 2nd straight year. The low Rhine can also affect the transportation of petroleum.
What is the forecast for the months ahead and how do we use ocean temperatures, globally to forecast for Europe? Email me for information at bestweatherroemer@gmail.com for more information
In Summary:
Dramatically low water levels are causing chaos in Germany.
Drought-like conditions have hit nearly 90 percent of the country in 2018.
Experts fear this could be a sign of things to come in the future.
In Lake Constance, a new island has emerged. In Berlin, a river is flowing backward. A large number of lakes and ponds are seeing dead fish along their banks. Barges are hardly being loaded so they don’t run aground.
This is the scene in Germany after a long and dry summer has left the country’s lakes and rivers at record low levels. The levels are causing chaos for the inland shipping industry while causing environmental damage and billions of dollars in losses. Experts fear this could be a sign of what’s to come as global temperatures rise.
HELPING YOU MAKE THE BEST INVESTMENT DECISIONS BASED ON THE WEATHER
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