The grain market has, of course, been in the gutter for years. This was brought on by the Trade War with China, ethanol plants closing due to low crude oil prices, COVID-19, and record crops around the world. However, all of that could be changing. Above you can see a picture of a heat dome you. Will it last and bring down the excellent crop conditions that have been a blessing for Midwest farmers? I believe so, as I have been telling clients for the last few weeks.
However, the greatest risk for farmers will be over southern Illinois, Missouri, southern Iowa into possibly eastern Nebraska and especially Kansas and Texas heading deeper into July. The rim of fire rains within the dome will prevent major crop damage (for now) over at least the northern Midwest. My biggest concern right now is for cotton farmers in Texas and perhaps soybean and corn farmers in the southern 20-35% of the belt in the next few weeks.
However, in the short term, there will be a few chances for rains for some Iowa and Illinois farmers over the next 5 days. Warm-night-time low temperatures, however, can nip corn yields at a critical time following these rains.
One main force in the grain markets this time of the year is, of course, summer weather. We have the potential for an explosion in grain prices this summer. That depends on “if” a “hot dome” (high-pressure ridge in the atmosphere) parks itself over the Midwest grain belt. Some important rains are forecast for parts of Iowa, Nebraska, and the western corn belt today and again over the weekend. However, the high temperatures a dome could bring in about 8 days are unwelcome for southern Midwest corn and soybean crops. The Texas cotton crop could in jeopardy as well.
Potential for Summer Weather Problems
My latest gold report to clients has been talking about extreme heat and potential for summer weather problems. These would arise if:
- the AO index stays negative with warming over the North Pole,
- La Nina continues to develop,
- and other teleconnections from my Climate Predict program below stay strong. (Climate Predict is our exclusive long-range in-house weather forecasting program for global commodities.)
The letters (AO, NINO34, etc.) you see above the map are teleconnections around the world. They represent factors like sea ice, La Nina, and global ocean temperatures. Analyzing them gives us an upper hand in forecasting global commodity weather, as well as price analysis and yield. They show the potential is there for some crop problems, especially later this summer.
So what is my forecast for the summer? Sign up for a 2 week FREE trial period and I will help educate you on how to trade everything from natural gas to grains, coffee, and cotton, on the weather. If you are a farmer, having first-hand knowledge “before the crowd” can help you make much more accurate long-term hedging decisions with your crops.
