Gasoline stocks have been rising, while heating oil (distillate stocks) tanking. Distillate fuel is used in everything from home heating oil (the biggest concentration is of course in the Northeast), to diesel fuel for trucks, trains and planes.  One can see below how gasoline prices have collapsed in the face of excess global supplies of crude oil, but distillate prices have risen ahead of winter.

Trade sanctions against Iran are expected to be made up for by  increase production by OPEC members and here in the U.S. This is one key reason crude prices have broken 15% in recent weeks

 

 

 Above we can see that distillate stocks are falling (blue star *), while gasoline stocks rising (yellow star *). Depending on winter weather, there will be some huge trading opportunities in various energy spreads based on how much cold and snow affect demand for heating oil and whether or not deep snow cover affects driving (gasoline demand) throughout the winter.

Heating oil prices have soared vs gasoline, as the chart shows above. Heating oil prices will be very sensitive to weather. Will this spread reverse and heating oil prices fall and gasoline rally later this winter? To find out more our long-range weather forecast for winter, click here for a sample newsletter

(above) Snow cover is rapidly increasing across Canada and the Arctic. How strong El Nino forms, plus specialized forecasting techniques that we use for clients, will dictate how severe this winter will be for energy areas. We have the answers here

 

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