CLIMATECH FORECAST NOV 12TH
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Models aside, we have been forecasting a cold U.S. winter for a while looking at a variety of factors from low solar to a weak El Nino Mokadi and Climatech now helps us compare historical weather events (such as the California drought or wet eastern U.S. summer and fall) to find analog years that match the current global teleconnection features.
In this example below, we are faced with a small dilemma in early November of trying to figure out if the EPO and/or WPO index will be positive or negative in early December.
The AO/NAO index will be clearly negative, but what about the winter driving pattern of the EPO/WPO index?
Our analog tool on Climatech lets us find the solution. The stars (charts below) illustrated are values I put in to show the AO/NAO index in the lowest 30% (most negative) range since 1950. I put the EPO/WPO somewhere in the middle between the 20-50% range. Out pop up the analog years with this scneario below it. December 1950; 1958; etc……
Notice only 2 analog years came up (1958/2005) when there was either an El Nino neutral or a weak El Nino.
From here you can see that in these two years the tendency was for the WPO index to be negative (a value of 2 and the (lowest 20-30%) based on the historical data base, and the EPO index at 3 (slightly negative and lowest 30-40%).
What does this tell us? That given the -AO/NAO pattern coming up and a neutral or weak EL Nino, that the WPO and/or EPO will have to at least slightly negative? The result would be a cold outlook for the eastern U.S. for December