In what has become a “wild” weather market in wheat the last few months, our forecast to clients on April 10th alluded to the likelihood of rains from Kansas to Texas. While freeze and drought conditions suggest the worst wheat crop yields since the 2002 season, a cool April has allowed wheat crops to “slow down in development.” In other words, the Plains wheat crop can still be helped. However, the crop will not recover completely by any means.
Also, Texas farmers may see several chances for important rains that will be critical for tilling soils and early fieldwork in the weeks ahead.
A drought would sent cotton futures soaring, but at least for a while, things will be improving. Is this a sign that La Niña may weaken?
Until this next week’s improved moisture situation from Kansas to Texas (the heart of our nation’s cattle and wheat country), the 1996 La Nina analog has been holding to a tee, but that appears to be changing.
For an interesting article about how drought in the Plains affects cattle and herds and hence the livestock market, click here
So how will La Niña fare and will we see drought return to the Plains? How will this give you an opportunity to trade wheat, corn and cotton in the weeks ahead? This information is for private clients only:
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The wheat market has broken 10% on the forecast for some rains into late April in the Plains, but prices could well be at “fair value” given crop ratings that may only improve slightly over the next few weeks. The blue arrow shows how poor the crop is