NEAR RECORD NEGATIVE WPO INDEX SENDS NATURAL GAS PRICES, SOARING. WHAT’S THE WPO?

NEAR RECORD NEGATIVE WPO INDEX SENDS NATURAL GAS PRICES, SOARING. WHAT’S THE WPO?

As La Nina forms, and the oceans cool in the equatorial Pacific, winters tend to start out mild for the most eastern ski resorts and the majority of U.S. energy areas, but there are exceptions. 1995 and 1985 were two La Nina events that had a huge block over the NW part of Alaska to the arctic circle. The strong block, or negative Western Pacific Oscillation Index is just one feature that can result in cold weather and will influence natural gas and perhaps heating oil trading in the weeks and months ahead.

The colder outlook has helped natural gas prices soar through resistance, but any short to longer term weather forecasts is only reserved to paying clients. subscriptionsbestweather@gmail.com

Another important factor to the northern Hemispheric winter is the NAO. Many of you have heard about this index. When there is a warm block over Greenland and the NAO is negative, severe cold and snows can invade the Northeast U.S. and/or Europe. Below we show our proprietary in house software Climatech http://climatepredictanalytics.com and how the WPO index in November can actually forecast a negative NAO. This increases the odds of a cold early start to the winter with lots of fireworks in the energy markets. But how to trade these kind of markets and any changes in the WPO/NAO relationship is only reserved, again, for paying clients.

MAP ABOVE WWW.STORMVISTA.COM

wpo, forecast, snow, cold

CLIMATECH’S NEGATIVE WPO INDEX——NOTICE THE WARM (RED BLOCK) OVER GREENLAND AND POTENTIAL NEGATIVE NAO

LA NINA AND THE WPO—GREAT EARLY SKI SEASON OUT WEST

LA NINA AND THE WPO—GREAT EARLY SKI SEASON OUT WEST

The negative Western Pacific Oscillation index (WPO) is depicted by a warm, strong block to the NW of Alaska well into November. The strong negative phase of the QBO (stratospheric winds, some 25-50 miles in the stratosphere) could result in this block remaining well into November. Its implications will be important for energy and natural gas traders, but only paid clients will get a heads up with respect to these markets. A week ago we began discussing a possible warm start to winter and natural gas prices have taken it on the chin as U.S. production is increasing, but will this continue? Subscriptonsbestweather@gmail.com

WPO, heights, forecast

CREDIT: stormvista.com

Early Snow for Ski Areas

I have been doing ski forecasting for Snowbird, Utah for over 15 years and used to forecast for more than 25 ski areas nationwide, particularly in Vermont and New Hampshire.  The combination of a -WPO coupled with a developing La Nina suggest a very snowy November with feet of snow from the Cascades to the Sierras and Utah. The map  below shows the relationship of moisture in November in years when we have this strong block (-WPO) as shown above—very snowy with feet of snow.  Usually it is El Nino not La Nina that results in the best ski seasons out west, but there are exceptions. For more information please visit www.bestsnow.net