For five months, our WeatherWealth newsletter has predicted a rebound in global coffee production. While periods of dry weather hit some key Northern Brazil coffee areas in October, it has not been hot. Since then, timely rains have hit most key coffee regions.
Also, two typhoons hit Vietnam’s coffee production regions during their harvest in November. Nevertheless, other than some short-term harvest delays back then, any major downgrade to the Vietnam crop is unlikely.
Judy Ganes saw firsthand what was happening in Vietnam a month ago, and the exaggeration by some analysts about major damage to the crop there. Check out her site to receive the best “soft commodity” information. It is well worth a subscription to her service.
This video by StoneX confirms (more or less) what I predicted. With an on-cycle coffee crop year and generally decent (not always perfect) weather in Brazil, any major bull market in coffee in 2026 is unlikely.
This longer-term and potentially bearish philosophy assumes good weather and no frost or wet weather harvest “in the cards” during the May-August time frame in Brazil. Could things change?
I keep coffee traders and producers around the world “abreast” of the fundamental factors affecting coffee and update weather forecasts, often before the crowd realizes what is happening.
Jim Roemer
