by Jim Roemer
U.S. wheat crop holds steady at 59% good-excellent and is better than last years 55% good-excellent. Crop about to head into dormancy with beneficial moisture expected off and on the next 10 days.
Wheat prices hit resistance last week and fact remains still have huge global stocks. Stronger dollar has not helped.
While some concerns about dryness and recent frost damage in Argentina to wheat—overall decent yields are still possible in Argentina. Wheat harvest just beginning.
Weak La Nina Mokadi suggests generally decent Australian wheat yields and closer to record yields in eastern Australia.
KEY POINT—Even with some wet weather and frost damage in Australia a few weeks or so ago and scattered areas of Dryness and frost in Argentina, the southern Hemisphere exportable wheat is at a surplus and amazingly total production Is expected around 42.5 MMT’s. This would be the largest southern Hemispheric wheat crop since 2011.
While it is possible some La Nina concerns could develop in the U.S. Plains next spring—-it is a very weak La Nina and Right now ample snow cover and moisture for the Plains should develop over the next 10 days. So I do not see anything Alarming right now from a weather stand point, to get excited about in the wheat market.
Source: Ag Resource Company
