Traders watching Argentina weather closely for soybeans
The occasional sell-off in soybeans the last few weeks has been due mostly to favorable weather in South America. While good rains are seen on the 11-15 day for most areas of Argentina, soybean prices are rallying for the following reasons:
1) WASDE estimates the Brazil soybean crop at 108 MMT and Argentina at 57 MMT. However, the Brazil figure is probably higher than this and Argentina a bit lower. The combined total soybean harvest of 166-167 MMT is below last year. Still a good, decent crop, but worrying some of “tighter supplies later.”
2) Global demand for soybeans is strong.
3) 100 degree F heat in Argentina off and on the next 10 days is causing crop stress. Forecast for needed rainfall is still in the 11-15 day. If we had heavy widespread rains right now and no hot weather, soybeans would not be rallying.
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Major pattern change pressures natural gas
So much for the bitter cold weather helping the energy markets. On Tuesday, we began forecasting major changes in the pattern for the 2nd half of January ahead of all other forecasters.
Even with three weeks of brutally cold weather, Donald Trump and other global warming non-believers, cannot make statements that climate change does not exist just because it is cold occasionally. This is ludicrous. 2017 will go down as the warmest ever on the planet and Europe, Asia and much of the world have been witnessing warm weather.
The NY Times says it best here: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/climate/trump-tweet-global-warming.html