We have seen a stellar rally in corn and wheat futures early this week almost entirely inspired by the weather. Following a huge move up in grains this winter on South American weather problems, inflationary concerns, and of course the Russian-Ukraine war, spring weather is now a key factor in the markets.
Look at all Agriculture-grain ETF has it has soared on these weather problems
The first maps show that the 2nd Brazil corn crop was being affected by more hot, dry weather during this critical time.
Adding to the new bullish flavor in ag commodities again is the fact that La Nina is actually not weakening. This will set the stage up for more volatile spring and summer weather. Often, the 2nd year of a La Nina could be a wet, cool one for the Midwest grain belt and indeed this is happening.
Historic April blizzards in the northern Plains will delay seeing spring wheat and corn planting.
We are seeing the eastern Pacific region ocean temperatures cool at what we call Nino12. This is quite unusual this time of the year to see this cooling. This means that La Nina is not weakening, as I pointed out to clients a few weeks ago.
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My in-house weather program climatepredict.com reveals (above) what usually happens during the month of May when cooling occurs at Nino12.
The map below shows rainfall in the last month. Notice how it has been too wet in the northern Plains (blue) as well as parts of the central and southern corn belt. This severe weather season is one of the worst in years. There will also likely be weather problems for cotton as well.
While U.S. corn plantings will continue to be delayed, the U.S. hard-red wheat crop is the worst in years and will continue to fall in ratings based on my forecast.
The grain market will be watching very closely the weather forecasts going forward. We have hedging and trading ideas for farmers and traders around the world, which other meteorologists do not provide. Please check out a free issue of our less expensive monthly newsletter CLIMATELLIGENCE, below
