Many forecast firms and models suggest La Niña type conditions this summer or fall that would of course have global impacts on many commodities. However, I believe that forecast models have been wrong and too bold predicting cooling ocean temperatures and a La Niña.

conditions

Presently, we are seeing what we call +positive Global Angular Momentum (+GLAAM) occur. This teleconnection, combined with the oceans being slow to cool along the equator portend potential off and on weak El Niño conditions (not La Niña) into at least late spring.

This is one reason why the deep southern US continues to see flooding and severe weather and tornadoes.

conditions

Global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) is a measure of how fast the atmosphere is spinning relative to the earth’s rotation. During the negative phase of GLAAM the atmosphere moves more slowly relative to the earth’s rotation. This causes mid-latitude jet streams to produce higher amplitude ridge and trough patterns. Negative GLAAM is common when La Niña is present. However, the opposite is happening now (see above). Positive (GLAAM). Hence, we still have (in my view) occasional weak El Niño conditions.

What implications will this have for farmers’ crops around the world in coming weeks and months? How might you take advantage of this information to trade everything from grains to soft commodities?

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Jim

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