One of the biggest weather related trades in commodities this winter has been short the natural gas market (UNG). However, selling heating oil against long gasoline (for protection) had resulted in a move of over $8,000 a contract the last weeks; until the last few days.
There is sometimes a correlation with snows for Northeast ski resorts and the heating oil market rallying. When big snowstorms and cold weather limit travelers from driving, gasoline prices can sometimes fall and heating oil prices rally. This has happened the last few days. Prior to this week, record warm weather and less global demand helped heating oil prices collapse while gasoline prices soared (as the chart shows above).
We will see up to 3-4 feet of snow from at least 2 and possibly 3 New England snowstorms over the next 2 weeks. The first big one will hit areas like Jay Peak, Stowe and Killington, Vermont with 1-2 feet as well as parts of northern New Hampshire and Quebec.
Trading Snowfall and Other Weather Variables
There is a relatively new web site that lets a meteorologist or weather enthusiast trade their predictions of snowfall, rainfall or temperatures. It is called TradeWx.com You can find out more information at this link
This is a great way for traders to get their feet wet, first hand, trading weather. Tradewx.com will give participants $25 to fund their account for FREE.
Ski Season Sub-Par in New England will get a Big Boost
The ski season so far has been sub-par in New England due to the warm winter. This is something I forecasted more than 2 months ago. But a big improvement is on the way for central and Northern New England for a week or two.
To see a full report of the New England ski season conditions so far, please see the excerpt below from www.bestsnow.org
AS OF LATE JANUARY
Northeast: The first openings were Killington Nov. 3, Mt. St. Sauveur Nov. 8 and Sunday River Nov. 9. Early November weather was favorably cold but there was mixed precipitation late in the month. Terrain expanded some in early December with 1.5 feet of new snow. Rain on Dec. 14 depressed trail counts. There was some recovery before Christmas, but a tough holiday week with some freezing rain. Conditions in early January improved with 1-2 feet of new snow, but it rained the second weekend. Conditions improved with up to 2+ feet of snow over MLK weekend. Percents open: Hunter 66%, Okemo 71%, Sunday River 91% and Sugarloaf 59%, Tremblant 86%, St. Anne 100%.
| Area | Season Snow | Pct. of Normal | Pct. of Area Open |
| Jay Peak (mid estimate) | 143 | 93% | 99% |
| Smuggler’s Notch | 123 | 82% | 67% |
| Stowe | 119 | 83% | 90% |
| Sugarbush | 84 | 68% | 99% |
| Killington | 116 | 105% | 66% |
| Stratton | 66 | 76% | 83% |
| Whiteface | 90 | 105% | 64% |
| Cannon | 92 | 130% | 67% |
| Le Massif | 101 | 92% | 89% |
Jim Roemer
