There are hedge funds, which are in deep trouble or have gone out of business this month, in part due to the huge volatility in both natural gas and crude oil Natural gas stocks are some 17% below a year ago, and we began telling paid clients in October, about the potential explosion in natural gas prices and a cold winter. But has the natural gas market rallied too much and will there be short term warm weather or will prices reach their highest level in more than 4 to 5 years this winter, You can receive my WINTER OUTLOOK here by registering for our CLIMATELLIGENCE REPORT. Not only the energy market but equities will be affected by a potential cold winter.
I will also address this year’s ski season in Climatelligence and potential and trading opportunities in weather related stocks and commodities.
CHART ABOVE–UGAZ, the 3X long natural gas ETF is up an astounding 150% over the last month due to tight natural gas stocks and a very cold late fall and early winter. But will this continue and how high will prices go? Will there be a selling opportunity? We will be staying abreast of this most volatile commodity market, all winter.
For example, have you hard of the company Douglas Dynamics (PLOW) ? This company was founded in 1948 and outfits commercial vehicles for snow removal. This company has soared an average of 18% over the last 2 years and could have higher growth potential if this winter is snowy over much of the United States. I think this could be a good bullish play for you, especially heading into the first quarter of 2019 when it should get real cold and snowy across the U.S.
Just a brief glimpse at two of my weather forecast techniques below to forecast a cold U.S. winter.
How do we use other weather forecast methods to second guess the competition and to help you benefit from more accurate long range weather forecasts? Again, this is addressed in our current report The 2018-19 winter outlook and impacts on commodities and equities.
Shown above are the warm ocean temperatures (red) both along the equator and also in the Gulf of Alaska. This set up can often mean a cold, snowy winter for the United States. Some of the analog years we use are shown above and had explosion in certain parts of the energy sector.
Low solar activity (spots) on the sun, represent an inactive period quite similar to the mid-late 1970’s. This was a period of extreme cold for much of the United States.
The frozen pond only occurs in extreme cold winters. The cone is not what you think it is.
You can see the similar “amplitude” in solar activity to the mid-late 1970’s on the chart below when winters were generally severe in the United States.