After a modest rally in crude oil on the heels of lower Opec production announcements, the world is still awash in oil. While other factors over other than weather is at play, it may take major cold in Europe, the U.S. and China to shore up the flood of oil in the weeks ahead. The U.S. weather pattern is very volatile due to a changing weak La Nina; good Eurasian snow cover that usually results in blocking and colder winter risks in the U.S., versus other factors. Overall, this will make trading weather in the energy market volatile in the weeks ahead with the trend being 1-2 weeks of cold U.S. weather, warming, then cold again. It is possible that within a week or so, models may once again show a pattern change towards colder weather if the EPO and NAO/AO index becomes negative again. Models are not showing this, but the atmosphere is in a different state than it was a year ago with a lot colder weather over Eurasia and Canada
