Delving Into Two Other Active Hurricanes Seasons And La Nina To Predict Winter Snowfall for U.S. Ski Areas

Big snows coming to the West, finally in early to mid November

La Nina events often bring good winter snows to the Pacific Northwest into British Colombia and heading into November, a major change in the weather pattern will bring early season snows from Whistler to Mt. Baker, Crystal Mountain, Jackson Hole, and in Places like Snowbird. Many of these areas have seen record late summer and early fall heat with historical fires destroying millions of acres of land in California to the Pacific Northwest.

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Looking at two ski seasons following an active hurricane season

Each La Nina winter is different, but generally, it is the Pacific Northwest and much of British Colombia and Alberta who benefit the most with above-normal snowfall. Eastern US winters tend to be very variable with extreme temperature fluctuations. For example, heading into early to mid-November, near-record warmth will aggravate snowmaking conditions.

One can look at where snowfall was above or below normal for the last two La Nina winters, which also happened to have an active hurricane season. These were the active hurricane winters of 2017-2018 and the infamous 2005 hurricane season.

I will have much more detail, plus interesting long-range weather forecasts and other goodies in my newsletter in the coming months.

2017-18 Ski Season Summary

Source: Bestsnow.net

2017-18 favored the north over the southern regions to an extreme degree with only a narrow region in between near average, ranging from Mt. Hood to the Tetons. Many areas in Washington, Montana, and farther north were over 120% of normal while most from central Oregon, Utah, Colorado, and farther south were under 80%, with the Southwest suffering worst at 60% or less. For more detail on snow incidence by month and region, see 2017-18 Ski Season Analysis. 

2017-18  SKI  SEASON  SNOWFALL  SUMMARY
RECORD  HIGH  (10 Years Minimum)		6+ Powder	RECORD  HIGH  (10 Years Minimum)			6+ Powder
Waterville Valley, N. H. 3,000	214	11%
Castle Mt., Alb.  5,700	461	19%
HIGH SNOWFALL				HIGH
Lake Louise, Alb.  6,700	250	9%		Lookout Pass, Idaho/Mont.  5,600	586	Dec.-Mar	33%
Sunshine Village, Alb.  7,028	317	11%		Silver Mt., Idaho  6,200	409	Dec.-Mar	23%
Big White, B. C.  6,200	361	15%
Big Sky, Mont.   8,920	376	13%
Sun Peaks, B. C.  6,100	266	11%
Whitefish, Mont.   6,700	427	19%
Whitewater, B. C.  5,500	498	18%
Schweitzer, Idaho   4,700	429	18%
Revelstoke, B.C.  6,429	432	17%
ABOVE  AVERAGE SNOWFALL				ABOVE  AVERAGE
Mt. Washington, N. H.  6,262	344	13%		Red Mt. 2, B. C.   6,650	217	Dec.-Mar	12%
Mt. Rainier Paradise, Wash. 5,420	688	27%
Snoqualmie Pass, Wash.   3,000	442	18%
Sugarloaf, Maine 3,695	174	9%
Jackson Hole, Wyo.   8,250	391	13%
Cannon Mt., N. H. 1,800	189	9%
Grand Targhee, Wyo.   8,200	506	17%
Whistler Roundhouse, B. C.   6,000	478	17%
Snowshoe, W. V. 4,848	179	9%
Fernie, B. C.  5,400	459	18%
Mt. Baker, Wash.   4,300	759	31%
Okemo, Vt.   3,300	182	9%
Keystone, Colo.   11,641	240	9%
Bridger Bowl, Mont.   7,100	341	13%
Crystal Mtn 2, Wash.   6,100	480	21%
Whiteface (Lake Placid), N. Y.  3,660	224	10%
BELOW  AVERAGES SNOWFALL				BELOW  AVERAGE
Killington, Vt.  4,142	230	11%
Central Sierra Snow Lab – Boreal, Cal. 7,200	263	12%
Mammoth Mtn, Calif.   9,600 or 8,900	250	11%
Mt. Fidelity (Selkirks), B. C.  6,150	479	18%
Alpine Meadows, Calif.   7,000	313	15%
Mt. Bachelor, Ore.   6,350	304	11%
Berthoud Pass, Colo.   11,315	297	12%
Kirkwood (Carson Pass), Calif.  8,526	318	15%
Mary Jane at Winter Park, Colo.   10,800	301	12%
Alyeska, Alaska  2,750	499	21%
Loveland, Colo.   11,200	283	10%
Jay Peak, Vt.  3,000	322	14%
Arapahoe Basin, Colo.   10,820	254	9%
Brundage, Idaho   6,000	236	10%
Stratton, Vt.   3,875	185	10%
Mt. Hood Meadows, Ore.   5,400	443	16%
Squaw Valley, Calif.   6,200	236	12%
Smuggler’s Notch, Vt.   1,600	317	15%
Stevens Pass, Wash.   4,061	467	18%
Sun Valley, Idaho   8,800	186	8%
Snow Basin, Utah   7,700	226	10%
Squaw Valley, Calif.   8,000	397	18%
Stowe, Vt.  3,041	274	12%
Sugar Bowl, Calif.   7,000	315	14%
Northstar, Calif.   7,800	260	12%
Heavenly Valley, Calif.   10,000	282	13%
Le Massif, Que.  2,600	172	8%
Sierra at Tahoe, Calif.  7,746	279	13%
June Mtn, Calif.   8,700	219	11%
LOW				LOW
Crater Lake (Mt. Bailey), Ore.   6,800	304	11%
Gothic, Colo. 9,400	170	6%
Southern California Composite   7,000 – 8,000	39	2%
Park City 2, Utah   9,300	196	9%
Snowbird Tram Base, Utah   8,100	259	12%
Alta, Utah   9.600	381	16%
Steamboat, Colo.   9,200	262	10%
Alyeska, Alaska   1,500	257	12%
Sugarbush, Vt.   3,000	190	8%
Jupiter Bowl, Utah   10,000	219	10%
Snowbird Mid-Gad, Utah   9,640	321	14%
Arizona Snowbowl 2, Ariz.   10,800	99	5%
Brian Head, Utah   9,770	180	9%
Breckenridge 2, Colo.   12,000	277	10%
Vail, Colo.   11,250	216	8%
Copper Mtn, Colo.   11,000	217	8%
Wolf Creek, Colo.   10,642	226	10%
Aspen Highlands, Colo.   11,100	173	7%
Beaver Creek, Colo.   11,200	223	9%
Brighton, Utah   9,502	346	15%
Snowmass, Colo.  11,000	227	9%
Aspen Mtn, Colo.   11,190	174	6%
Crested Butte, Colo.   10,150	170	7%
Telluride, Colo.   11,170	186	8%
Purgatory, Colo.   10,000	126	6%
Red Mt. Pass, Colo.   11,090	192	9%
Monarch, Colo.	208	8%
Solitude 2, Utah   9,400	223	10%
RECORD  LOW (10 Years Minimum)				RECORD  LOW (10 Years Minimum)
Taos, N. Mex.   11,200	92	4%

2005-06 Ski Season Summary

The following major weather patterns affected the ski season.

November: Several storms began in the Northwest but were most consistent in Montana, Wyoming, and Northern Colorado. North of this track Canada had average snow but south of it Utah, California, and the Southwest were very dry. 

Early and mid-December: Montana, Wyoming, and Northern Colorado continued to get heavy snow and had excellent conditions throughout the month. These storms extended into Utah, catching up those areas by Christmas. Adjoining regions (California and Canada) were below average and the Southwest was in severe drought.

Christmas through January: This was one of the most widespread snowy months in recent years. Everyone from Canada to the Sierra, Utah, and Colorado had abundant snow, with only SoCal, Arizona and New Mexico missing out.

February: Snowfall was average early and late but the middle 2 weeks were much drier than normal.

March and early April: Storms consistently pounded the Sierra, with above-average snow in the Northwest and Utah also. These storms finally broke the extreme Southwest drought. The northern areas favored in the early season had below-average snow.

Late spring: While winter lasted deep into April in the Sierra and Utah, there wasn’t much spring. Temperatures warmed rapidly to summer levels, and only Mammoth remained open until July.

2005-06  SKI  SEASON  SNOWFALL  SUMMARY
RECORD  HIGH  SNOWFALL			RECORD  HIGH  (10 Years Minimum)
Mammoth Mtn, Calif.   9,600 or 8,900	659
Sun Valley, Idaho   8,800	352
HIGH			HIGH
Jackson Hole, Wyo.   8,250	452
Alta, Utah   8,650	631
Alpine Meadows, Calif.   7,000	494
Sunshine Village, Alb.  7,028	290
Mt. Bachelor, Ore.   6,350	482
Kirkwood (Carson Pass), Calif.  8,526	624
Steamboat, Colo.   9,200	440
Heavenly Valley, Calif.   8,400	375
Copper Mtn, Colo.   11,000	363
Aspen Highlands, Colo.   11,100	308
Whiteface (Lake Placid), N. Y.  3,660	202
ABOVE  AVERAGE			ABOVE  AVERAGE
Central Sierra Snow Lab – Boreal, Cal. 7,200	422		Big Mountain, Mont.   6,700	302	Dec.-Mar.
Mt. Rainier Paradise, Wash.  5,420	729		Telluride, Colo.   11,170	212	Dec.-Mar.
Crater Lake (Mt. Bailey), Ore.   6,800	505		Schweitzer, Idaho	249	Dec.-Mar.
Mt. Washington, N. H.  6,262	330		Whitewater, B. C.  5,500	325	Dec.-Mar.
Stowe, Vt.  3,950	243
Brighton, Utah   8,740	410
Snowbird, Utah   10,000	491
Bridger Bowl, Mont.   7,100	336
Mary Jane at Winter Park, Colo.   10,800	366
Grand Targhee, Wyo.   8,200	531
Gothic, Colo. 9,400	372
Squaw Valley, Calif.   8,000	583
Whistler Roundhouse, B. C.   6,000	466
Big White, B. C.  6,200	317
Snowshoe, W. V. 4,848	167
Squaw Valley, Calif.   6,200	321
Red Mt. Pass, Colo.   11,090	291
Mt. Baker, Wash.   4,300	781
Vail, Colo.   11,250	398
Monarch, Colo.	312
Breckenridge, Colo.   11,100	336
Keystone, Colo.   11,641	252
Northstar, Calif. 7,800	332
Beaver Creek, Colo.   11,200	299
Crested Butte, Colo.   10,150	254
Snowmass, Colo.  11,000	317
Aspen Mtn, Colo.   11,190	260
BELOW  AVERAGE			BELOW  AVERAGE
Sugarloaf, Maine 3,695	173
Mt. Fidelity (Selkirks), B. C.  6,150	407
Lake Louise, Alb.  6,700	146
Whistler Base, B. C.   2,200	171
Berthoud Pass, Colo.   11,315	306
Southern California Composite   7,000 – 8,000	89
Loveland, Colo.   11,200	333
Jay Peak, Vt.  3,000	328
Alyeska, Alaska   1,400	499
Arapahoe Basin, Colo.   10,820	321
Purgatory, Colo.   10,000	210
Sugarbush, Vt.   3,000	208
Fernie Snow Valley, B. C.  5,400	367
Mt. Hood Meadows, Ore.   5,400	423
Okemo, Vt.   3,300	127
Brian Head, Utah   9,770	287
Smuggler’s Notch, Vt.   1,600	312
Wolf Creek, Colo.   10,642	342
Tod Mt. (Sun Peaks), B. C.  6,100	162
LOW			LOW
Killington, Vt.  4,142	191
Taos, N. Mex.   11,200	152
Stratton, Vt.   3,875	127
Arizona Snowbowl 2, Ariz.   10,800	143
Arizona Snowbowl 1, Ariz.   9,500	86
RECORD  LOW (10 Years Minimum)			RECORD  LOW (10 Years Minimum)
Waterville Valley, N. H. 3,000	78