Why El Niño May Not Form As Quickly As Others Think

Why El Niño May Not Form As Quickly As Others Think

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Whether El Niño forms by summer will have a huge impact on Midwest grain farmers, as well as commodity markets around the world. Currently, one can still see cooler ocean waters (blue) in the Central Pacific and weak La Nina conditions. My video above talks about why many weather forecast firms predicting a summer El Nino are probably at least a few months too early.

What is an atmospheric river in meteorology and how is it affecting commodity prices?

What is an atmospheric river in meteorology and how is it affecting commodity prices?

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The combination of a warming Arctic and a series of strong storms (Atmospheric River) pounding the west coast is having the following effects on commodities:

  1. Record warm weather in Europe is pressuring Dutch natural gas, as well as the U.S. energy markets
  2. The warmth is also curtailing the demand for coffee
  3. Sometimes when Europe warms, a dry Harmattan wind can hit west Africa. While not a major factor hurting cocoa production yet, it may be, down the road

Jim Roemer

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