Hurricanes and the Lumber Market

We talked about the impact Harvey would have on cotton in last week’s blog.  A hurricane/commodity relationship that we haven’t previously mentioned is the lumber market.  Prior to a landfall, businesses and homes board their windows to limit damage.  After a storm leaves, construction crews need lumber to replace and rebuild.  Both of these events can increase the demand for lumber.  Futures prices have increased 5% from recent lows just before Hurricane Harvey made landfall.  With powerful Irma heading towards the Bahamas and likely the U.S., lumber traders will be watching any and all changes in the track.

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Irma Forecast

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Irma is currently a powerhouse of a hurricane, with 929mb minimum pressure and 175 mph as of the 8AM EST advisory.  The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the center of the storm just south of Florida with 150 mph winds!  Unless the elevated terrain of Hispaniola or Cuba disrupts Irma, the strength of the winds should not diminish too much.  A landfall like this forecast will be truly historic.  Only two other storms in the past 40 years have made landfall with winds at or greater than 150 mph: Charlie (2004) and Andrew (1992).

The big uncertainty is not the strength but the track of Irma.  Models have begun to converge and a Florida landfall is likely.  But the timing of the curve will determine where and when.  Irma, at some point, will switch from heading NW to due North.  The most likely scenario is a preliminary landfall in the Florida Keys and a secondary landfall near the Naples/Ft. Myers area late Sunday.  However, only a slight shift in the track could lead to a landfall anywhere from West Palm Beach to Tampa, FL and northward (a track into the Gulf unlikely but still possible, unfortunately).  More importantly, Irma is large and will have impacts far beyond just the landfall location –>The hurricane-strength wind swath is currently 80 miles wide, whereas Florida is only 160 miles at its widest.  Anyone living in Florida, the Bahamas, etc., should continue to monitor the NHC forecasts here.

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SOURCE: Tropical Tidbits

We here at Best Weather Inc. will watch Irma intently, as we are headquartered in the west coast of Florida. Luckily there is plenty of time to prepare, as we are still 5 days from Irma’s impacts.  The track matches the “Labor Day” hurricane of 1935.  Ominously, this storm still holds the record for highest winds at U.S. landfall: 185 mph.

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1935 Labor Day Hurricane

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