Why additional Trade Tariffs and ideal summer weather has pressured several agricultural commodities, but more problems for Australia’s crops

by | Sep 18, 2018 | Commodities

 

President Trump late Monday announced new tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods. The White House said the 10% tax is set to be imposed Sept. 24 on a range of Chinese imports, including luggage and seafood. That levy will rise to 25% at the end of 2018. In response, China’s commerce ministry said it “has no choice but to undertake synchronous retaliation” to defend its interests and unveiled plans for tariffs on an additional $60 billion of U.S. goods. For more about the current new tariffs, click here

These announcements, along with “Ideal” weather for Midwest corn and soybeans. this summer, has resulted in a massive sell-off in most agricultural commodities. Cotton has also been in a downward spiral, even in the face of the earlier Texas drought.

On the other hand, frost to Australia’s wheat country is devastating in some areas and will result in the lowest wheat crop in years adding to the recent drought woes. For an interesting article, please click here

 

Frost hits Australian wheat

Our in house proprietary long-range weather forecast program CLIMATECH (below) uses global teleconnections, such as ocean temperatures around India, El Nino, La Nina and even weather patterns over the Arctic to predict weather patterns and potential crop yields, sometimes months in advance. You can see how we predicted excellent summer weather and huge crops and lower soybean prices back in the early summer.

If you are interested in our entire weekly CLIMATELLIGENCE NEWSLETTER and want a sample and how we predicted the collapse in corn and beans this summer, and what our longer term view is for grains and other commodities, you can sign up, here

The collapse in soybean prices the last few months has of course been inspired by Trade War tariffs, but also due to the record U.S. soybean crop and swelling global stocks. CLIMATECH (above) predicted above normal soybean yields and wet summer weather ideal for Midwest crops, months ago. Will wet fall weather potentially cause harvest delays to crops over the next month and put a short-term floor in corn and soybean prices?

 

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