La Niña is still hanging on
We have been disagreeing with several weather agencies and private firms about the sudden demise of La Niña due to:
– Cool waters still extending across the tropical Pacific
– The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) being positive
– Low solar activity.
Low sunspot activity increases gamma rays. The higher cosmic rays can block out solar radiation from reaching the surface in the tropics, thus leading to net cooling.
OCEAN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE COOLER THAN NORMAL IN ALL REGIONS IN THE EQUATORICAL TRIOPICAL PACIFIC.
Therefore, La Niña is still holding on. She will continue to cause huge problems for U.S. wheat crops as well as cool spring weather for planting corn.
For more thorough coverage of the sun’s impact on commodities, please see my recent article on Seeking Alpha here
Wheat’s bull market continues with freeze on top of continued drought.
While trade war concerns have increased volatility in many markets, wheat prices have been the most resilient because of the expanding drought in the Plains and a major freeze that nipped wheat crops from Kansas to Texas this past weekend. Back in January, our commentary pointed to this frost, and drought, using our proprietary forecast tool CLIMATECH. The program incorporates La Niña as well as other teleconnections that address ocean temperatures as far away as India and weather patterns over both polar regions. The combination of these phenomena has resulted in the first bona fide wheat bull market in years. However, some rain may fall later in April for the Plains wheat areas, so jumping into this market at this late day, may well be a mistake.
To a tee, this La Niña matches analog years of 1996 and 1956. The implication could be bullish fundamentals for global crops over the next 6 months as well as an ominous warning sign for hurricane season.